Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.</li>
<li>On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.


ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.</li>
<li>Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.</li>
</ul>


Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.


Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

<ul>
<li>What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.</li>
<li>Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.</li>
<li>What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.</li>
</ul>


What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.


VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Hong Kong

Zijin Gold is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining (ZM), located outside of China. Leveraging ZM’s competitive advantage in management of exploration, development and operation of low-grade and refractory resources, ZG has emerged as a global leading and market-oriented gold mining company, vertically integrated through the value chain.

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Zijin Gold (2259 HK)

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

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Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

​Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

​VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.