Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in February last year, the Aussie Treasurer <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2023N00026/asmade/text" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prohibited</a> Yuxiao Fund from buying an additional 9.92% in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20445:1" rel="noopener">Northern Minerals (NTU AU)</a></strong> which would have increased its stake to 19.9%.</li>
<li>On the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231121/pdf/05xl2d4q74m61v.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20th November 2023</a>, Yuxiao sought the removal of Nicholas Curtis as director of the rare-metal play at an EGM; however Curtis <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240527/pdf/063yqlgvx8zbll.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resigned his post</a> and the EGM cancelled.</li>
<li>The Aussie Treasurer has <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2024N00475/latest/text" target="_blank" rel="noopener">now made orders</a> requiring Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their holdings (~10.4% all-in) within 60 days. </li>
</ul>


Back in February last year, the Aussie Treasurer prohibited Yuxiao Fund from buying an additional 9.92% in Northern Minerals (NTU AU) which would have increased its stake to 19.9%.
On the 20th November 2023, Yuxiao sought the removal of Nicholas Curtis as director of the rare-metal play at an EGM; however Curtis resigned his post and the EGM cancelled.
The Aussie Treasurer has now made orders requiring Yuxiao and four (deemed) associated investors to sell their holdings (~10.4% all-in) within 60 days. 


Northern Minerals (NMI AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$860.8 million, led by consumer staples, financials, health care, and offset by information technology, materials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$860.8 million, led by consumer staples, financials, health care, and offset by information technology, materials, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB.


Northbound Flows (May 31st): Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB

Travis Lundy

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.</li>
<li>Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.
Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024): Net Sell Flows on Weak Gross Volumes

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.</li>
<li>There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.
There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of May 24th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, information technology and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BOC, CCB, PetroChina, Zoomlion Heavy, Jiangxi Copper, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of May 24th.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, information technology and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BOC, CCB, PetroChina, Zoomlion Heavy, Jiangxi Copper, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 24th): BOC, CCB, PetroChina, Zoomlion Heavy, Jiangxi Copper, China Longyuan

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Northern Minerals (NMI AU): Chinese Investors Forced To Exit

I don't have a strong conviction either way on Northern Minerals here; but the expulsion of Yuxiao, an agitating presence, removes an overhang....

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows (May 31st): Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024): Net Sell Flows on Weak Gross Volumes

NORTHBOUND Connect sees net selling again to end the month of May. Zijin and Yangtze Power and a host of renewables-related companies on the buy...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

Weaker volumes, lower nets. NORTHBOUND now clearly buying CATL and Luxshare and finance and utilities. Selling some tech. The question which arises...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (May 24th): BOC, CCB, PetroChina, Zoomlion Heavy, Jiangxi Copper, China Longyuan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BOC, CCB, PetroChina, Zoomlion Heavy, Jiangxi Copper, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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