Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM</li>
<li>The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too</li>
<li>Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative</li>
</ul>


Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM
The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too
Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative


Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue to adopt this strategy, as the outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> is weaker than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>, which generated 51pp in the last year. </li>
<li>For FY26-27, OOIL will face more bunker and capacity pressure. Its metrics are less attractive, for example, dividend yield of 1.2-2%, vs. SITC's 7.6-9.2%.</li>
<li>OOIL is more expensive at 25x FY26F PER, against 11.3x for SITC. While SITC's P/B is the highest among peers, it has an enviable average ROE of 42.8%.</li>
</ul>


We continue to adopt this strategy, as the outlook for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) is weaker than SITC International (1308 HK), which generated 51pp in the last year. 
For FY26-27, OOIL will face more bunker and capacity pressure. Its metrics are less attractive, for example, dividend yield of 1.2-2%, vs. SITC's 7.6-9.2%.
OOIL is more expensive at 25x FY26F PER, against 11.3x for SITC. While SITC's P/B is the highest among peers, it has an enviable average ROE of 42.8%.


China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

<ul>
<li>Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal</li>
<li>On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue</li>
<li>Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue <em>increased</em> from Q123 to Q423</li>
</ul>


Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZIM Integrated Shipping Services has suddenly become one of the most dramatic takeover stories in global shipping.</li>
<li>The company already had a signed $4.2 billion merger agreement with Hapag-Lloyd at $35 per share, a deal approved by an overwhelming 97% of shareholders.</li>
<li>Then came the twist: a reported rival $4.5 billion cash offer from Haim Sakal’s Sakal Group, valuing ZIM at $37.50 per share and topping Hapag-Lloyd’s bid by roughly $300 million.</li>
</ul>


ZIM Integrated Shipping Services has suddenly become one of the most dramatic takeover stories in global shipping.
The company already had a signed $4.2 billion merger agreement with Hapag-Lloyd at $35 per share, a deal approved by an overwhelming 97% of shareholders.
Then came the twist: a reported rival $4.5 billion cash offer from Haim Sakal’s Sakal Group, valuing ZIM at $37.50 per share and topping Hapag-Lloyd’s bid by roughly $300 million.


ZIM Integrated’s $4.5 Billion Twist: Is The Hapag-Lloyd Deal In Trouble?

<ul>
<li>ZIM reported third-quarter 2025 results in a volatile shipping environment shaped by geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty.</li>
<li>Revenue was $1.8 billion, net income was $123 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $593 million, producing adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins of 33% and 15%.</li>
<li>While still profitable, results were materially below the prior year, with revenue down 36%, adjusted EBITDA margin falling from 55% to 33%, and net income declining from $1.1 billion to $123 million.</li>
</ul>


ZIM reported third-quarter 2025 results in a volatile shipping environment shaped by geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty.
Revenue was $1.8 billion, net income was $123 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $593 million, producing adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins of 33% and 15%.
While still profitable, results were materially below the prior year, with revenue down 36%, adjusted EBITDA margin falling from 55% to 33%, and net income declining from $1.1 billion to $123 million.


Can ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Protect Earnings If Suez Reopens Broadly?

Israel

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd provides shipping services. The Company offers multi-modal, cargo handling, tariff management, schedule information, and other related services. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services serves clients worldwide.

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ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

The deal doesn't make financial sense unless EBITDA margins average 20% or better over the next 15 years, which is more than current margins and...

Tracking Traffic

China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

ZIM Integrated’s $4.5 Billion Twist: Is The Hapag-Lloyd Deal In Trouble?

The company already had a signed $4.2 billion merger agreement with Hapag-Lloyd at $35 per share, a deal approved by an overwhelming 97% of...

Baptista Research

Can ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Protect Earnings If Suez Reopens Broadly?

ZIM reported third-quarter 2025 results in a volatile shipping environment shaped by geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty. Revenue was $1.8...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

The deal doesn't make financial sense unless EBITDA margins average 20% or better over the next 15 years, which is more than current margins and...

Tracking Traffic

China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

​OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

ZIM Integrated’s $4.5 Billion Twist: Is The Hapag-Lloyd Deal In Trouble?

The company already had a signed $4.2 billion merger agreement with Hapag-Lloyd at $35 per share, a deal approved by an overwhelming 97% of...

Baptista Research

Can ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Protect Earnings If Suez Reopens Broadly?

ZIM reported third-quarter 2025 results in a volatile shipping environment shaped by geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty. Revenue was $1.8...

Baptista Research

OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...