Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns</li>
<li>The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign</li>
<li>Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters


US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The easing tensions helped lift US equities, including a rebound in regional bank stocks (Zions +5.8%, Western Alliance +3.1%) after sharp losses on Thursday.</li><li>We recommend short-term speculative plays in export and industrial estate stocks (DELTA, HANA, KCE, TFG, WHA, AMATA), which should benefit from the improving trade outlook.</li><li>Bank stocks may see increased volatility driven by speculative trading or sell-on-fact activity, which could add short-term pressure to the SET Index.</li></ul>

The easing tensions helped lift US equities, including a rebound in regional bank stocks (Zions +5.8%, Western Alliance +3.1%) after sharp losses on Thursday.We recommend short-term speculative plays in export and industrial estate stocks (DELTA, HANA, KCE, TFG, WHA, AMATA), which should benefit from the improving trade outlook.Bank stocks may see increased volatility driven by speculative trading or sell-on-fact activity, which could add short-term pressure to the SET Index.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 20, 2025

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways down today, with support levels at 1,280 and 1,268 and resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,313.</li><li>The US: US stocks fell (S&amp;P500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.47%) amid renewed concerns over regional banks.</li><li>Thailand: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects this year’s Vegetarian Festival (October 21–29) to generate Bt45.9bn in spending, up 2% from Bt45.0bn last year — marking the highest level in five years.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down today, with support levels at 1,280 and 1,268 and resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,313.The US: US stocks fell (S&amp;P500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.47%) amid renewed concerns over regional banks.Thailand: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects this year’s Vegetarian Festival (October 21–29) to generate Bt45.9bn in spending, up 2% from Bt45.0bn last year — marking the highest level in five years.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 17, 2025

<ul>
<li>The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. </li>
<li>Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. </li>
<li>The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.</li>
</ul>


The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. 
Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. 
The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.


US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

<ul>
<li>There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. </li>
<li>Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.</li>
<li>We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.</li>
</ul>


There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. 
Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.
We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.


US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

United States

Zions Bancorporation is a bank holding company that operates full-service banking offices in western United States. The Company also offers an array of investment, mortgage, insurance, and electronic commerce services.  In addition, Zions provides financing solutions for small businesses across the United States.

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Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)

US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Fed quarterly data on NCO and delinquencies, does not suggest any systemic malaise in credit markets. Will be interesting to see how data changes...

Daniel Tabbush

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 20, 2025

The easing tensions helped lift US equities, including a rebound in regional bank stocks (Zions +5.8%, Western Alliance +3.1%) after sharp losses...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 17, 2025

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down today, with support levels at 1,280 and 1,268 and resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,313.The US: US...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

The headline of a NY office building selling at a 97% discount should be chilling for small US banks, which have 44% of their loans in CRE. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

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