Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best.

There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best. 

Equity Bottom-Up

The most powerful delta is well in place for credit costs. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee income, contained costs and less provision costs.

The most powerful delta is well in place for credit costs. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee income, contained costs and less provision costs. 

Bendigo And Adelaide Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year.

One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year. 

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.

The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.

The story for US banks is all about re-opening the economy, improved credit costs and top line. New macro data for August suggests that the economy continues to improve. With the Fed’s new higher inflation target, one must expect lower rates for longer, which can mean reasonably higher loan demand. If and where the yield curve maintains steepness or steepens further, banks should be able to rebuild net interest income with limited credit risk. Alongside continued improvement in the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now suggests that testing should not be done by all and it gives new data that suggests the risks of getting sick and dying are far less dire than most expected, or were told, in March and April. These last two points are positive, as they can have an impact on keeping the economy open and support improved confidence in spending, investment.

The story for US banks is all about re-opening the economy, improved credit costs and top line. New macro data for August suggests that the economy continues to improve. With the Fed’s new higher inflation target, one must expect lower rates for longer, which can mean reasonably higher loan demand. If and where the yield curve maintains steepness or steepens further, banks should be able to rebuild net interest income with limited credit risk. Alongside continued improvement in the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now suggests that testing should not be done by all and it gives new data that suggests the risks of getting sick and dying are far less dire than most expected, or were told, in March and April. These last two points are positive, as they can have an impact on keeping the economy open and support improved confidence in spending, investment.

United States

Zions Bancorporation is a bank holding company that operates full-service banking offices in western United States. The Company also offers an array of investment, mortgage, insurance, and electronic commerce services.  In addition, Zions provides financing solutions for small businesses across the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)

Banks – Provisioning

There are stark differences in how provisioning levels changed since 4Q29 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Erste Bank – Venn Union of Delta

The most powerful delta is well in place. During coming quarters the bank may see a union of several deltas: improving net interest income, net fee...

Daniel Tabbush

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

BEN announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

Zions – Most Prone To Reversals

Credit costs in FY20 were 11x higher than FY19, despite 4Q20 reversals. The bank can see a greater decline during FY21 than most US banks. It also...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – New Data Supportive

New data in US shows a continued improvement in the economy and new data from the CDC should be well received by law-makers, consumers and the...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)