HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.</li>
<li>Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.</li>
</ul>


Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>'s positive profit alert for 33-50% YoY increase in 1H24 earnings suggests that market consensus of just 10% full-year growth is way too conservative.  </li>
<li>Industry sales momentum for excavators and wheel loaders has accelerated in the last three months. A low base in 2H24 will mean an even stronger recovery.</li>
<li>Government supportive measures for equipment renewal and faster special purpose bond issuance will fuel demand too. We estimate net cash equals 90% of the share price. </li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s positive profit alert for 33-50% YoY increase in 1H24 earnings suggests that market consensus of just 10% full-year growth is way too conservative.  
Industry sales momentum for excavators and wheel loaders has accelerated in the last three months. A low base in 2H24 will mean an even stronger recovery.
Government supportive measures for equipment renewal and faster special purpose bond issuance will fuel demand too. We estimate net cash equals 90% of the share price. 


Lonking (3339 HK): Setting the Stage for Better Profitability

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>'s demand should pick up in 2H24 supported by the government's "Action plan to promote large-scale equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins". </li>
<li>Industry volume sales have already witnessed a narrower YoY decline in Mar, with solid exports of wheel loaders and domestic sales of excavators.</li>
<li>After going ex- in late-May, its PER will drop to 7.0x and yield will rise to 6.6%. Net cash of HK$1.56/share is more than fully cover its share price.</li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s demand should pick up in 2H24 supported by the government's "Action plan to promote large-scale equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins". 
Industry volume sales have already witnessed a narrower YoY decline in Mar, with solid exports of wheel loaders and domestic sales of excavators.
After going ex- in late-May, its PER will drop to 7.0x and yield will rise to 6.6%. Net cash of HK$1.56/share is more than fully cover its share price.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released over the weekend the data for earth-moving machinery sales in Apr 2026.</li><li>Sales of excavators and loaders (exports + domestic sales) grew 30% YoY and 32% YoY respectively.</li><li>For loaders, exports were particularly strong (+57% YoY) which we believe was driven by mining demand. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released over the weekend the data for earth-moving machinery sales in Apr 2026.Sales of excavators and loaders (exports + domestic sales) grew 30% YoY and 32% YoY respectively.For loaders, exports were particularly strong (+57% YoY) which we believe was driven by mining demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Strong sales of earth-moving machinery in Apr; price hikes planned for excavators

<ul><li>We have received positive feedback on Zoomlion following the publication of our 2026 capital goods sector outlook (link) and investor call this week.</li><li>Based on our understanding, domestic demand for crane and concrete machinery continued to see meaningful recovery in Nov, while earth-moving’s growth remained solid.</li><li>We estimate Zoomlion’s domestic machinery sales growth in Oct-Nov to be 20-30% YoY, accelerating from 13% YoY in 3Q25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have received positive feedback on Zoomlion following the publication of our 2026 capital goods sector outlook (link) and investor call this week.Based on our understanding, domestic demand for crane and concrete machinery continued to see meaningful recovery in Nov, while earth-moving’s growth remained solid.We estimate Zoomlion’s domestic machinery sales growth in Oct-Nov to be 20-30% YoY, accelerating from 13% YoY in 3Q25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) - Expect Accelerated Sales Growth in Nov

China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co., Ltd. is a Chinese manufacturer primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of high-tech equipment, including construction machinery, agricultural machinery, and environmental industry equipment. Its key products encompass cranes, excavators, concrete machinery, and tractors. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan, China.

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Zoomlion (1157 HK)

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

Sany Intl's net profit grew 23.2% in 1Q25, suggesting good momentum for the construction and heavy machinery demand. CCMA data also indicated that...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Setting the Stage for Better Profitability

Lonking expects 1H24 earnings to grow by 33-50% YoY, signaling a much stronger full-year performance than market consensus. Industry sales...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Policy Tailwind

Government policy support and improving industry demand should drive a potential uptick in sales for Lonking in 2H24. Attractive valuations and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - Strong sales of earth-moving machinery in Apr; price hikes planned for excavators

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released over the weekend the data for earth-moving machinery sales in Apr 2026.

CMB International

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) - Expect Accelerated Sales Growth in Nov

We have received positive feedback on Zoomlion following the publication of our 2026 capital goods sector outlook (link) and investor call this week.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

Sany Intl's net profit grew 23.2% in 1Q25, suggesting good momentum for the construction and heavy machinery demand. CCMA data also indicated that...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Setting the Stage for Better Profitability

​Lonking expects 1H24 earnings to grow by 33-50% YoY, signaling a much stronger full-year performance than market consensus. Industry sales...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Policy Tailwind

Government policy support and improving industry demand should drive a potential uptick in sales for Lonking in 2H24. Attractive valuations and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - Strong sales of earth-moving machinery in Apr; price hikes planned for excavators

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released over the weekend the data for earth-moving machinery sales in Apr 2026.

CMB International

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) - Expect Accelerated Sales Growth in Nov

We have received positive feedback on Zoomlion following the publication of our 2026 capital goods sector outlook (link) and investor call this week.

CMB International

Lonking expects 1H24 earnings to grow by 33-50% YoY, signaling a much stronger full-year performance than market consensus. Industry sales...