Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.</li>
<li>The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.</li>
<li>It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.</li>
</ul>


Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.
The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.
It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.


Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.</li>
<li>As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.
As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK).
The Liontown Resources (LTR AU) / Albemarle Corp (ALB US) transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

<ul>
<li>Now that the September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebal is announced, we look at the March 2024 rebal and its possibilities. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> is the only automatic ADD, but it might not be. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> would be sector balance ADDs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could get capped if it outperforms Nikkei 225 by ~10%+ to 31Jan2024. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> will see an add of ~14 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


Now that the September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebal is announced, we look at the March 2024 rebal and its possibilities. 

Socionext (6526 JP) is the only automatic ADD, but it might not be. ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) would be sector balance ADDs.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could get capped if it outperforms Nikkei 225 by ~10%+ to 31Jan2024. And Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) will see an add of ~14 days of ADV.


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 review is announced, so can look at March 2024. I expect Zozo and Ryohin Keikaku IN, Pacific Metals and Hitachi Zosen OUT....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

​Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 review is announced, so can look at March 2024. I expect Zozo and Ryohin Keikaku IN, Pacific Metals and Hitachi Zosen OUT....

Travis Lundy

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...