Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. </li>
<li>There are other technical reasons to think it is not. </li>
<li>This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. </li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. 
There are other technical reasons to think it is not. 
This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.</li>
<li>The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  </li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.
The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.



The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell </li>
<li>Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.</li>
<li>U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  </li>
</ul>


Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell 
Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.
U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  


Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>There have been a lot of deals in the last 5 years, including M&amp;A between Japanese companies, distribution deals/licenses, foreign companies buying into Japan and Japanese buying foreign brands. </li>
<li>Consolidation is a key motivation but so are category expansion, rationalisation and buying in expertise. All these reasons and more suggest more deals to come in the next few years.</li>
<li>Here we provide a comprehensive list of deals between 2019-2025 as well as a map showing who owns who and, as important, who influences who without any paperwork at all.</li>
</ul>


There have been a lot of deals in the last 5 years, including M&amp;A between Japanese companies, distribution deals/licenses, foreign companies buying into Japan and Japanese buying foreign brands. 
Consolidation is a key motivation but so are category expansion, rationalisation and buying in expertise. All these reasons and more suggest more deals to come in the next few years.
Here we provide a comprehensive list of deals between 2019-2025 as well as a map showing who owns who and, as important, who influences who without any paperwork at all.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who in Fashion & Lifestyle Markets

<ul>
<li>The Japanese fashion e-commerce market is undergoing rapid transformation: while online sales continue to grow, the channel’s share of total fashion sales has fluctuated due to strong in-store performance.</li>
<li>Even the best exemplars of effective integration of online and offline and personalised marketing have seen e-commerce share fall as physical store sales have risen faster for many. </li>
<li>Omnichannel models continue to evolve, with great examples of deeper integration of stores and digital through staff activities like blogging and Live Commerce.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese fashion e-commerce market is undergoing rapid transformation: while online sales continue to grow, the channel’s share of total fashion sales has fluctuated due to strong in-store performance.
Even the best exemplars of effective integration of online and offline and personalised marketing have seen e-commerce share fall as physical store sales have risen faster for many. 
Omnichannel models continue to evolve, with great examples of deeper integration of stores and digital through staff activities like blogging and Live Commerce.


Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who in Fashion & Lifestyle Markets

Recent years have seen a surge in deals between Japanese and foreign companies in lifestyle/fashion, driven by consolidation and category...

Michael Causton

Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too

Japanese fashion e-commerce market sees growth, but in-store sales outpace online, challenging even top omnichannel strategies. Staff engagement...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

​Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who in Fashion & Lifestyle Markets

​Recent years have seen a surge in deals between Japanese and foreign companies in lifestyle/fashion, driven by consolidation and category...

Michael Causton

Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too

​Japanese fashion e-commerce market sees growth, but in-store sales outpace online, challenging even top omnichannel strategies. Staff engagement...

Michael Causton

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Recent years have seen a surge in deals between Japanese and foreign companies in lifestyle/fashion, driven by consolidation and category...

Japanese fashion e-commerce market sees growth, but in-store sales outpace online, challenging even top omnichannel strategies. Staff engagement...