Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.</li>
<li>The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."</li>
<li>There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.</li>
</ul>


The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.
The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."
There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.</li>
<li>In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.</li>
<li>Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.</li>
</ul>


Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.
In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.
Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.


Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. </li>
<li>But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.</li>
<li>This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.</li>
</ul>


The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. 
But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.
This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.


<ul>
<li>Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.</li>
<li>The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.</li>
<li>It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.</li>
</ul>


Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.
The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.
It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.


Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

The September Nikkei 225 rebalance is likely to be announced either today, tomorrow, or Thursday. I have adjusted my picks to go for 3 x 3. If I...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Accounting for all the adjustments needed in EV (and EBITDA) in constructing a fair value for Softbank Corp means one should use forward PER. In...

Travis Lundy

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

The September Nikkei 225 rebalance is likely to be announced either today, tomorrow, or Thursday. I have adjusted my picks to go for 3 x 3. If I...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Accounting for all the adjustments needed in EV (and EBITDA) in constructing a fair value for Softbank Corp means one should use forward PER. In...

Travis Lundy

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

​GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

​Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...