Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong</li>
<li>Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin</li>
<li>Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus


Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy</li>
<li>In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September</li>
<li>In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view</li>
</ul>


For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view


Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ZTO Express reported solid operational and financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 amid a moderately improving macroeconomic environment and continued recovery in China’s express delivery industry.</li><li>Parcel volume grew by 13.2% year-over-year to 9.67 billion shipments, notably outpacing the industry’s 5.8% growth, and expanding its market share by 1.2 percentage points.</li><li>This volume growth was accompanied by a significant 65% increase in retail parcel volume, reflecting progress in product mix optimization and a strategic focus on higher-value offerings such as reverse logistics.</li></ul>

ZTO Express reported solid operational and financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 amid a moderately improving macroeconomic environment and continued recovery in China’s express delivery industry.Parcel volume grew by 13.2% year-over-year to 9.67 billion shipments, notably outpacing the industry’s 5.8% growth, and expanding its market share by 1.2 percentage points.This volume growth was accompanied by a significant 65% increase in retail parcel volume, reflecting progress in product mix optimization and a strategic focus on higher-value offerings such as reverse logistics.

<ul>
<li>Parcel volume in Q1 accelerated, posting growth of 13% Y/Y, and Revenue was up 22%</li>
<li>But Cost of Revenue grew even faster due to an increase in Key Account (KA) customers</li>
<li>With Net Income growth of just 5%, and unchanged guidance, little to excite investors</li>
</ul>


Parcel volume in Q1 accelerated, posting growth of 13% Y/Y, and Revenue was up 22%
But Cost of Revenue grew even faster due to an increase in Key Account (KA) customers
With Net Income growth of just 5%, and unchanged guidance, little to excite investors


ZTO Express Q126: Volume, Revenue Accelerate, But Net Profit Lags as 'Key Accounts' Crush Margins

<ul>
<li>Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25</li>
<li>ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns</li>
</ul>


Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y
FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25
ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns


ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Strong Q4 results from Full Truck Alliance, and growth in all the right places. Guidance for Q1 suggests no slowdown in early '24, and shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Chinese X-border express parcel volume growth has accelerated dramatically in 2023, and unit pricing has fallen sharply. In this note we dissect...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express: Initiation Of Coverage

ZTO Express reported solid operational and financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 amid a moderately improving macroeconomic...

Baptista Research

ZTO Express Q126: Volume, Revenue Accelerate, But Net Profit Lags as 'Key Accounts' Crush Margins

ZTO in Q126 reported faster volume and Revenue growth in Q126, but Net Income growth lagged, up just 5% Y/Y. We blame increased exposure to 'Key...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

On March 17 ZTO reported Q425 results that showed a steep decline in profitability, and a possible shift to higher rates of returns to shareholders

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)