External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ZTO’s reported net profit increased 3% YoY to RMB9.08bn in 2025.</li><li>Core net profit, based on our calculation, was down 6% YoY to RMB9bn, which is 3% below our estimate but 3% above Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>ZTO introduced the parcel volume growth guidance of 10-13% for 2026, which it believes is higher than the industry average.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ZTO’s reported net profit increased 3% YoY to RMB9.08bn in 2025.Core net profit, based on our calculation, was down 6% YoY to RMB9bn, which is 3% below our estimate but 3% above Bloomberg consensus.ZTO introduced the parcel volume growth guidance of 10-13% for 2026, which it believes is higher than the industry average.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US/2057 HK) - 2026 Volume Growth Guidance: Up 10-13%...

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19</li>
<li>Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins</li>
<li>On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID</li>
</ul>


ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID


ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

<ul>
<li>In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+</li>
<li>But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix</li>
<li>Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price</li>
</ul>


In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price


JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.</li>
<li>Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.</li>
<li>Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.</li>
</ul>


Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.
Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.
Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.


China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

<ul>
<li>H1/Q2 results largely match tone of management guidance from the IPO process</li>
<li>Revenue barely grew, and margins shrank due to higher Fulfilment costs (tied to oil)</li>
<li>Shares are down over 27% from IPO; any break from fuel costs could boost bottom-line</li>
</ul>


H1/Q2 results largely match tone of management guidance from the IPO process
Revenue barely grew, and margins shrank due to higher Fulfilment costs (tied to oil)
Shares are down over 27% from IPO; any break from fuel costs could boost bottom-line


SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

ZTO Express (ZTO US/2057 HK) - 2026 Volume Growth Guidance: Up 10-13%...

ZTO introduced the parcel volume growth guidance of 10-13% for 2026, which it believes is higher than the industry average.

CMB International

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Industrials are back in focus. Active EM managers are increasing exposure, participation is at record highs, and conviction is spreading...

Steven Holden

SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

SHEIN disclosed H126 financial results, which show few surprises: revenue growth is still depressed, and margins continue to shrink due to high...

Tracking Traffic

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