Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign</li>
<li>No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225</li>
<li>Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign
No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225
Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in June to take us up to 85 index constituents.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.3bn (US$1.44bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the adds and in one stock with a FAF increase.</li>
<li>There could be a short-term drop in the AH premium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group</a> while this inclusion ensures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman</a> is a member of all major indices where eligible.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group (300 HK) and ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in June to take us up to 85 index constituents.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.3bn (US$1.44bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the adds and in one stock with a FAF increase.
There could be a short-term drop in the AH premium for Midea Group while this inclusion ensures ZTO Express Cayman is a member of all major indices where eligible.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.</li>
<li>The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet &amp; Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).</li>
<li>By Quiddity calculations based on the 16 May close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$34,556,596,089.99 (approximately), to trade on 6 June. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet &amp; Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on the 16 May close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$34,556,596,089.99 (approximately), to trade on 6 June. 


[Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

China

ZTO Express provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China, including freight forwarding, warehousing, distribution, and transportation. The company operates a technology-enabled network partner model for line-haul transportation, sorting, and last-mile delivery. It was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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ZTO Express (2057 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

April volume and price trends were mostly benign, but the fact remains that most of China's express companies have struggled to differentiate their...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express reported core margin compression again in Q125, despite an acceleration of volume growth and impressive cost control. "Key accounts"...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

Midea and ZTO Express will be added to the HSI after market close on 6 June. Estimated turnover is 2.9% and the estimated trade is HK$11.3bn. Watch...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal

The Hang Seng rebalance saw 8 ADDs and 3 DELETEs among the top six tracked indices in the family. The flows among those six total US$4.4bn a side.

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights for the Hang Seng Index to be publicly confirmed on Friday 16th May 2025. This is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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