China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite being breakeven just quarters ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size. Margin still has upside with further subsidiary integration;</li>
<li>JDL is still positioned to accelerate revenue by taking share from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> in untapped opportunities, including domestic B2C (Taobao/Tmall), cross-border B2C (Kuayue acquisition), and B2B;</li>
<li>JDL's stock price rose 60%+ while it was our top pick for 2024. We reiterate the company as our TOP buy idea in the China logistics space for 2025;</li>
</ul>


Despite being breakeven just quarters ago, JD Logistics (2618 HK) has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size. Margin still has upside with further subsidiary integration;
JDL is still positioned to accelerate revenue by taking share from S.F. Holding (6936 HK) in untapped opportunities, including domestic B2C (Taobao/Tmall), cross-border B2C (Kuayue acquisition), and B2B;
JDL's stock price rose 60%+ while it was our top pick for 2024. We reiterate the company as our TOP buy idea in the China logistics space for 2025;


China Logistics (Part 2): All JD Logistic Roads Lead Back to S.F. Express

<ul>
<li>ZTO's market share losses may accelerate as peers continue to cut prices. Worse yet, margins of its competitors are improving, which will sustain the war for a longer time;</li>
<li>ZTO has maintained profitability growth despite the price war, but we think this situation is unsustainable. Management will eventually need to sacrifice profitability or suffer accelerated share loss. </li>
<li>We now take a more bearish view on ZTO as we see no quick solution to the profit and market share balancing act. </li>
</ul>


ZTO's market share losses may accelerate as peers continue to cut prices. Worse yet, margins of its competitors are improving, which will sustain the war for a longer time;
ZTO has maintained profitability growth despite the price war, but we think this situation is unsustainable. Management will eventually need to sacrifice profitability or suffer accelerated share loss. 
We now take a more bearish view on ZTO as we see no quick solution to the profit and market share balancing act. 


China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply again to the lowest in a few months but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong, with big flows on tech.</li>
<li>Most of the top names were tech names - both in gross and net buys. Only 1 tech name in top five net sells.</li>
<li>Last week I said I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. Continue.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply again to the lowest in a few months but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong, with big flows on tech.
Most of the top names were tech names - both in gross and net buys. Only 1 tech name in top five net sells.
Last week I said I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. Continue.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Nov 2024); SB Trading Volumes Lower, Still Strong Net Buying Tech

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.</li>
<li>We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


SF Holdings A/H Trading - Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

China

ZTO Express provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China, including freight forwarding, warehousing, distribution, and transportation. The company operates a technology-enabled network partner model for line-haul transportation, sorting, and last-mile delivery. It was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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ZTO Express (2057 HK)

China Logistics (Part 2): All JD Logistic Roads Lead Back to S.F. Express

JD Logistics has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size, with upside potential in margins and opportunities to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Nov 2024); SB Trading Volumes Lower, Still Strong Net Buying Tech

SOUTHBOUND volumes fell again this week to the lowest in months but net flows continue to be strong. This week was all about tech.

Travis Lundy

SF Holdings A/H Trading - Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Logistics (Part 2): All JD Logistic Roads Lead Back to S.F. Express

​JD Logistics has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size, with upside potential in margins and opportunities to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

​ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Nov 2024); SB Trading Volumes Lower, Still Strong Net Buying Tech

SOUTHBOUND volumes fell again this week to the lowest in months but net flows continue to be strong. This week was all about tech.

Travis Lundy

SF Holdings A/H Trading - Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

JD Logistics has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size, with upside potential in margins and opportunities to...

ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...