Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.</li>
<li>The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope (BSL AU)</a>'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. </li>
<li>It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.
The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported Bluescope (BSL AU)'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. 
It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clearview-wealth-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19733:1" rel="noopener">Clearview Wealth (CVW AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zurich-insurance-group-ag-6200ef7e-59a6-4d82-87df-6dfcaec68274" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27910:1" rel="noopener">Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW)</a> at A$0.65 per share, a 21.5% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on regulatory (APRA and ACCC) and shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to Crescent Capital’s support.</li>
<li>A contested situation may emerge due to the offer’s discount to embedded value. Australian life insurers have attracted buyout interest from diverse global players.</li>
</ul>



Clearview Wealth (CVW AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW) at A$0.65 per share, a 21.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The offer is conditional on regulatory (APRA and ACCC) and shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to Crescent Capital’s support.
A contested situation may emerge due to the offer’s discount to embedded value. Australian life insurers have attracted buyout interest from diverse global players.


ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Zurich’s Scheme Offer Could Turn into a Contested Situation

<ul>
<li>Life insurance play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clearview-wealth-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19733:1" rel="noopener">ClearView Wealth (CVW AU)</a> has entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zurich-insurance-group-ag-6200ef7e-59a6-4d82-87df-6dfcaec68274" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27910:1" rel="noopener">Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW)</a>.</li>
<li>Zurich is offering A$0.65/share in cash (a 21.5% premium to last close), less any permitted dividends. A ticking fee may be added. </li>
<li>Crescent Capital Partners, holding (or having control of) ~53% of shares out, is supportive. ClearView's board is unanimously supportive. The Offer requires ACCC and APRA clearance. Looks clean</li>
</ul>


Life insurance play ClearView Wealth (CVW AU) has entered into a Scheme with Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW).
Zurich is offering A$0.65/share in cash (a 21.5% premium to last close), less any permitted dividends. A ticking fee may be added. 
Crescent Capital Partners, holding (or having control of) ~53% of shares out, is supportive. ClearView's board is unanimously supportive. The Offer requires ACCC and APRA clearance. Looks clean


ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Zurich's Clean A$0.65/Share Offer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.</li>
<li>At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.</li>
<li>With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.</li>
</ul>


Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.
At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.
With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.


Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses

<ul>
<li>The Board’s unanimous rejection of 1,280p and reference to a prior 1,315p proposal publicly harden valuation expectations, signalling that further progress now depends squarely on Zurich improving terms.</li>
<li>At 1,116p, the market prices roughly 64% deal success, with the residual spread reflecting valuation pushback rather than financing, regulatory or bidder-credibility concerns.</li>
<li>Risk-Reward has shifted from binary spread capture toward probability arbitrage on valuation convergence, with upside capped by Zurich’s IRR discipline and downside cushioned by Beazley’s standalone fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


The Board’s unanimous rejection of 1,280p and reference to a prior 1,315p proposal publicly harden valuation expectations, signalling that further progress now depends squarely on Zurich improving terms.
At 1,116p, the market prices roughly 64% deal success, with the residual spread reflecting valuation pushback rather than financing, regulatory or bidder-credibility concerns.
Risk-Reward has shifted from binary spread capture toward probability arbitrage on valuation convergence, with upside capped by Zurich’s IRR discipline and downside cushioned by Beazley’s standalone fundamentals.


Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

Switzerland

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

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Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Zurich’s Scheme Offer Could Turn into a Contested Situation

A contested situation may emerge due to the offer’s discount to embedded value. Australian life insurers have attracted buyout interest from...

Arun George

Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses

Zurich and Beazley have agreed terms in principle at up to 1,335p. With shares at 1,254p, the ~6% spread implies ~84% success and ~19.5% annualised...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

Beazley has rejected Zurich’s 1,280p bid, anchoring valuation higher. At 1,116p the market implies ~64% success, framing the trade as probability...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

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Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Zurich’s Scheme Offer Could Turn into a Contested Situation

A contested situation may emerge due to the offer’s discount to embedded value. Australian life insurers have attracted buyout interest from...

Arun George

ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Zurich's Clean A$0.65/Share Offer

Optically, terms appear okay. However, >50% of the register are supportive. Trading tight, assuming late Sept completion. Unless you can take...

David Blennerhassett

Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses

Zurich and Beazley have agreed terms in principle at up to 1,335p. With shares at 1,254p, the ~6% spread implies ~84% success and ~19.5% annualised...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

Beazley has rejected Zurich’s 1,280p bid, anchoring valuation higher. At 1,116p the market implies ~64% success, framing the trade as probability...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar