HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected. </li>
<li>As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be "safe haven assets" for investors. </li>
<li>The logic behind tariffs is to attack China's effective supply and trigger China's overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.</li>
</ul>


APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected. 
As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be "safe haven assets" for investors. 
The logic behind tariffs is to attack China's effective supply and trigger China's overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.


The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China Healthcare - The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The third batch of VBP results of the National TCM Patent Medicines were released. Some products experienced over 90% price reduction. The price decline of exclusive varieties was moderate.</li>
<li>The VBP results of cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents were released. Both foreign and domestic companies participated in the VBP actively, hoping to increase market share in China. </li>
<li>The key is to see whether 2024 full-year performance can meet expectations, which is the bottom line for WuXi Bio. Without a definitive long-term logic, short-term trading is recommended.</li>
</ul>


The third batch of VBP results of the National TCM Patent Medicines were released. Some products experienced over 90% price reduction. The price decline of exclusive varieties was moderate.
The VBP results of cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents were released. Both foreign and domestic companies participated in the VBP actively, hoping to increase market share in China. 
The key is to see whether 2024 full-year performance can meet expectations, which is the bottom line for WuXi Bio. Without a definitive long-term logic, short-term trading is recommended.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.5)-TCM VBP Update, Medical Device VBP Result Is Out, WuXi Bio's Outlook

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025. </li>
<li>Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.</li>
<li>Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it's just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.</li>
</ul>


Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025. 
Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.
Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it's just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.


Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) - The Company Is Now In Trouble

Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Beijing Medical Insurance Bureau issued a notice soliciting opinions on the linkage program of DRG payment and VBP policy in the city, involving sports medicine, neuro-intervention, and electrophysiology.</li>
<li>The basic logic of CXO is that there should be no significant fluctuations with the success or failure of a specific drug, unless this drug significantly increases total medical expenditure.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zylox-tonbridge-medical-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32974:1" rel="noopener">Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190 HK) </a>achieved high performance growth in 2022, and is a beneficiary of centralized procurement policy at the current stage.However, it still has to face some challenges.</li>
</ul>


The Beijing Medical Insurance Bureau issued a notice soliciting opinions on the linkage program of DRG payment and VBP policy in the city, involving sports medicine, neuro-intervention, and electrophysiology.
The basic logic of CXO is that there should be no significant fluctuations with the success or failure of a specific drug, unless this drug significantly increases total medical expenditure.

Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190 HK) achieved high performance growth in 2022, and is a beneficiary of centralized procurement policy at the current stage.However, it still has to face some challenges.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.19) - "Hedge Logic" Of CXO, Beijing's DRG+VBP Policy, Zylox-Tonbridge

<ul>
<li>With the launch of new products and their accelerated admission to hospitals, Acotec's revenue streams become more diversified, which would enhance its own risk resistance ability and core competitiveness.</li>
<li>Considering market size/increasing competition, Acotec’s growth ceiling is obvious if relies solely on domestic market. It becomes crucial whether Boston Scientific's acquisition would bring expected value or have other intentions.</li>
<li>How much room for improvement in future valuation depends on Acotec's performance in overseas markets. After all, if there is no internationalization breakthrough, Acotec's valuation logic would not be reshaped.</li>
</ul>


With the launch of new products and their accelerated admission to hospitals, Acotec's revenue streams become more diversified, which would enhance its own risk resistance ability and core competitiveness.
Considering market size/increasing competition, Acotec’s growth ceiling is obvious if relies solely on domestic market. It becomes crucial whether Boston Scientific's acquisition would bring expected value or have other intentions.
How much room for improvement in future valuation depends on Acotec's performance in overseas markets. After all, if there is no internationalization breakthrough, Acotec's valuation logic would not be reshaped.


Acotec Scientific (6669.HK) - What Value Boston Scientific Will Bring Is Crucial to Future Valuation

China

Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical equipment. The Company produces balloon catheters, peripheral stent systems, intracranial embolization stents, aneurysm embolization coils, and other equipment. Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology markets its products throughout China.

Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190 HK)

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Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190 HK)

The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China Healthcare - The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

As tariff war is heating up, some sectors in China healthcare will be victims, but there will also safe haven assets.The logic behind tariffs is to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.5)-TCM VBP Update, Medical Device VBP Result Is Out, WuXi Bio's Outlook

VBP result of TCM Patent Medicine is released. VBP of cochlear implant/peripheral vascular stent is good for companies. Only when Li Ge buys big...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) - The Company Is Now In Trouble

Acotec’s 2023 results were disappointing due to VBP and anti-corruption campaign. Growth of core products declined significantly and the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.19) - "Hedge Logic" Of CXO, Beijing's DRG+VBP Policy, Zylox-Tonbridge

Beijing issued new VBP+DRG policy for sports medicine/neurointervention/electrophysiology. CXO's "hedge logic" doesn't guarantee the whole industry...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Acotec Scientific (6669.HK) - What Value Boston Scientific Will Bring Is Crucial to Future Valuation

There're many highlights in Acotec’s performance last year,but growth ceiling is obvious if rely solely on China market.Boston Scientific's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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