This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Tactical Outlook: Where Is GOLD Going?
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has doubled in price since Jan 2025. And it is massively overbought, according to our model. For sure not a good sign.
- In the last few years when stock markets went down, Gold was also sold off, so it was not a safe haven.
- In this insight we will have a look at the SHORT case, and where to buy Gold again on the pullback.
2. Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 26 – Jan 30)
- Tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Pan-Asian indices and stocks we cover, the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.
- Several stocks and indices we cover pulled back last week but only 2 are oversold: China Mobile (941 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) .
- 2 stocks are really overbought: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and TSMC (2330 TT), and the KOSPI 200 INDEX. Gold and Crude Oil are also overbought, while US Bonds are oversold.
3. Tactical View: Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) A Penny Stock?
- Glancing at Samsung Electronics‘s chart since 2025, one can’t help but wonder if we’ve accidentally stumbled into the penny stock section of our terminal: +224% since 2025, +55% since mid-December.
- These numbers are hard to justify with any rationale—unless, of course, the market thinks that Samsung IPO’d last month instead of being a well-established company that’s been around for decades.
- Anyway, it is hard to believe that Samsung will continue to rally at this pace, our model is indicating the stock is well past the Tails zone for this rally.
4. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?
- This insight updates our previous: BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes. (Published on Dec 29, boomeranged on Jan 2).
- As previously signaled, BYD (1211 HK) may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying. This tactical view is short term, our target is 106.4 (Q3 target).
- The stock is getting overbought, it does not mean the rally cannot continue past 106.4, but for now we will keep a conservative view, and we’ll come back with updates.
5. TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical View: Navigating the Post-Consensus Revision Adjustment Phase
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) is a hot stock, but that does not mean it cannot pull back. 7-8 weeks up in a row has become the new normal.
- Our model supports a trend up to 10 weeks for the current trend pattern: it’s not saying it will trend for 10 weeks, but it is saying it could.
- The breaking point is between 7 and 10, our TIME MODEL shows: if this behavior repeats itself, the stock could rally either for 2 weeks or for another 5 weeks.
6. Strategic Allocation 2026: Solving the Equity-Bond Correlation Crisis Via Gold, Silver, and Platinum
- This analysis highlights the increasing portfolio risk from positive equity-bond correlation in the current inflationary regime, proposing a diversified “Hard Asset Basket” as a necessary third pillar for better diversification.
- Initial optimization of the precious metal basket reveals that while gold dominates, it may be worthwhile to investigate the addition one or more underlyer in the basket.
- The study’s cross-asset analysis demonstrates that introducing the hard asset allocation could improve the global efficient frontier, suggesting there may be a case for its strategic inclusion.
7. Silver: Parabolic Advance Shaken in a Violent Friday Session
- Silver’s historic rally unraveled abruptly, prompting a reassessment of recent price action and volatility behavior following an extreme single-session move.
- The latest rally stands apart from previous cycles, dominating historical comparisons in both scale and speed.
- Volatility remained elevated following the decline, underscoring how destabilizing the move was for market expectations.
8. The Memory Wall Breaker: Micron’s ‘Sold Out’ 2026 HBM Supply and the Case for JUN26 Options
- HBM TAM forecast to hit 100B by 2028 far earlier than projected.
- Q2 2026 guidance projects 68% margins.High financial flexibility, but risks persist from cyclicality and geopolitical tensions.
- Record revenue and cash flow mean potential upside for Micron.
9. U.S. Assets: Synchronized Declines and What They Mean for Markets
- Recent market episodes refocus attention on whether synchronized declines across major U.S. asset classes lead to follow-through selling.
- Bonds behave differently from equities and the dollar during these episodes, standing out within the broader U.S. asset complex.
- Elevated correlations raise questions around how often these joint declines occur and what they imply for markets.
10. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets for This Rally
- The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been rallying since early 2024, sometimes a volatile rally. This is a tactical outlook to determine its next, short-term profit target.
- The index closed up 1 week, this week and according to our model has a lot of room to go higher, 28570 is our profit target.
- This is a rally that could last for several weeks, when previous instances of the rally were encountered in the past, but our target is 2-3 weeks.
