This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC
- Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
- TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
- The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
- Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
- AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
- Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
- TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
- ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
- CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR
4. Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?
- Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
- This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture
- If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won
- Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won.
- The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price.
- We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.
2. GMO Internet (4784) Offering – This Is a GINORMOUS Re-IPO – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
- Last year, GMO injected its internet business into GMO Internet (4784 JP) and took shares as consideration. Somehow, GMO Internet got a TOPIX inclusion earlier this year.
- The company has 1.24% float of 3.4mm shares. GMO Internet Group – the parent – will now offload 91.7mm shares in an equity offering to meet TSE Continued Listing Requirements.
- That is about ¥279bn at current price against float of ¥10bn. Full market cap is ¥850bn. That’s 170x Dec25e Net Income. I expect the price will fall. You were warned.
3. CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has launched its H Share listing at a maximum price of HK$263. Pricing will be on 19 May, and the listing on 20 May.
- I discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views, CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that the low AH discount can be justified. We would participate in the listing.
4. CATL A/H Listing – High Quality, Large Size Make It Unavoidable but Needs a Discount
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
5. GENDA Placement – Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large
- GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A.
- Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
6. CATL A/H Listing – More like ADR Secondary Listing than an A/H Listing – Performance & Subscription
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it compares to some of the past listings.
7. Curator’s Cut: “Bubble” Tea, Japan M&A 🍿and TSMC from Different Lenses
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time
8. GMO Internet Placement: Secondary Sell-Down (Quasi IPO) To Meet Prime Listing Requirements
- GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) is looking to sell its 33.4% stake in its subsidiary GMO Internet (4784 JP) to meet free-float requirements.
- As the current free-float is tiny, the deal is more like a quasi-IPO rather than a placement, in our view.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics as well as updates on the company’s financial performance.
9. GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering
- GMO Internet (4784 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.
- The selling shareholder is GMO Internet Group (9449 JP). The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market’s continued listing criteria.
- The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.
10. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$1.3bn in its H-share listing.
- JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
2. Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters
- Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) to international investors.
- The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday’s close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.
- We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.
3. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings
- Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share.
- The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation.
- Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.
4. Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends
- Quick screen shows ₩1T+ names under 0.4x PBR — mostly retail, financials, and holdcos. Locals are keeping an eye on these with the election theme in play.
- This isn’t just hopeful chatter — both parties are seriously leaning into value-up policies. With dividend tax reform and solid sector catalysts, locals see real potential in the post-election trade.
- Long regional banks, hedge with KB and Shinhan. In retail, long domestic names, short China-dependent ones. For holdcos, long Hanwha and Doosan, short CJ and Kolon.
5. [Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.
- This deal should not come as a surprise. Bloomberg has an article out saying tycoons are taking companies private to avoid shareholder activism. It’s not just that.
- The stated reasons (competitive environment requiring faster decision-making and significant restructuring) are all kinda hot garbage. This is being done at adjusted EV/EBITDA of 4x and 10x FCF.
- And there are no synergies counted, and half of the Adjusted EV is net receivables+inventory equal to about 2mos of revenues. This is being done too cheaply. But…. TIJ baby…
6. Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon
- Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
- The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
- Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.
7. [Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
- With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
- The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
- If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.
8. [Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals
- The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn’t mean it’s enough.
- The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders.
- For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal.
9. [Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs
- Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) is a temp/contract staffing platform which specialises in engineering staff (IT engineers far more than machinery, construction, chemicals). The company has been growing.
- Overnight, an article appeared in MergerMarket – a high-dollar M&A-related news service – saying the company was going through a sale process. The company confirmed it was one possibility.
- The stock went limit up. This quick writeup looks at the framework of the idea, and possibilities.
10. Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) H-Share IPO: Index Inclusion Later This Year
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 20 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia
- NVIDIA stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump.
- Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips over five years to Humain, a new Saudi AI venture backed by the $925B Public Investment Fund.
- Bank of America raised NVDA price target to $160 from $150. A Bloomberg report suggested the UAE may buy over 1 million Nvidia AI chips under a potential U.S. deal.
2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook
- Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn’t really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
- Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model’s Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally…).
- Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we’re not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.
3. BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation
- Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
- Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
- Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.
4. Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
- Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
- Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.
5. TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback
- TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
- According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
- While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.
6. KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections
- In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17, entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models.
- Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels
- TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
- UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
- CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
2. SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?
- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)‘s 1Q25 results were in line, while the 2Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious.
- The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.6%, while China and Eurasia made up the remaining majority.
- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s top priority remains its strategic focus on core business and near-term execution.
3. AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders
- AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
- AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
- Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.
4. Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning
- SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
- SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
- Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips’ Peformance Leaks
- TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand
- Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm & Mediatek’s Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs — And All Roads Lead to TSMC’s Process Technology
- Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
- It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
- Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.
7. Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery
- Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
- Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
- Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.
8. Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.
- 2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
- 100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
- 2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.
9. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…
- 2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
- 2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
- The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.
10. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.
- We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
- The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
- Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
- According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
- We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025.
- Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued.
2. CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed its PHIP for an H-Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
- I previously discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case and CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
- In this note, I examine the latest results and developments outlined in the PHIP. Overall, the PHIP reinforces my positive view.
3. Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK) targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.
- Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.
- Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.
4. EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO
- The company set terms with a F-1/A putting 10 million shares for sale at a range of $46-$50 which would value the company as high as $4.05b.
- BlackRock and funds managed by BlackRock placed a 20-percent cornerstone investment order and is on the cover of the prospectus.
- The blueprint to getting an IPO out the door during this time is to shrink the size of the transaction, bring in a cornerstone investor and provide an attractive valuation.
5. CATL A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Updated Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide updated thoughts on valuations.
6. ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
- On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.
7. EToro IPO Valuation: First-Day IPO Pop Is Possible, But The Stock May Struggle To Hold Gains
- EToro Group Ltd., a social trading platform, sets terms for upcoming IPO in the United States. The online broker offers 10M Class A shares at range of $46.00-$50.00 per share.
- At the midpoint of price range, eToro would command a market value of ~$4B on a fully-diluted basis. The selling shareholders offer 5M Class A shares.
- BlackRock has indicated a non-binding interest in purchasing up to $100M worth of eToro shares. However, these shares will not be subject to a lock-up agreement.
8. Ant Group Considering on Listing Overseas Unit Ant International in Hong Kong
- Ant Group is considering on listing its overseas unit Ant International in Hong Kong. Ant International contributes approximately 20% to Ant Group’s total revenue.
- Ant International operates four core business lines: Alipay+ (cross-border payment platform), Antom (global merchant acquiring network), WorldFirst (remittance service), and Bettr (digital payment solution).
- Given the growing political to delist Chinese stocks from the US exchanges, there could be a greater political pressure on the Chinese government to approve Chinese IPOs in Hong Kong.
9. Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
- Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
- GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.
10. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$2 billion.
- Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (JHR HK) ranked first among Chinese pharma companies in revenue from NME drugs in 2023 and the number of commercialised NME drugs in 2024.
- The investment case rests on its product portfolio, strong revenue growth, rising profitability, cash generation, strong balance sheet and undemanding valuation.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. NTT (9432) To Overpay To Take Over NTT Data (9613) Subsidiary?
- This morning, the Nikkei says NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) has decided, 5 years after taking Docomo private, to buy out minorities in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP).
- NTT owns 58%. The article suggests a “30-40% premium” (¥3,900-4,200) “is likely”, with the parent spending ¥2-3trln (¥3,380-5,060) on the deal. The numbers are a bit all over the place.
- It will go limit up today to ¥3,492. A deal should be announced today after the close when NTT Data reports earnings. There’s a cool index event too.
2. CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
- Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
- The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
- Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.
3. ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher
- The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen.
- There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
- Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.
4. Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
- Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May.
- The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year.
5. [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
- Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
- There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
- This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances.
6. Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread
- Local traders are targeting the spread between day and NXT’s after-hours, a classic arb play similar to what Japanese instos used when ATS first launched, now emerging in Korea.
- The gap persists because institutional flow on NXT is still minimal, with recent data showing instos accounting for just 1-2% of total turnover.
- NXT’s night session is seeing heavy retail flow, providing instos with the liquidity to trade. This creates a rare opportunity to capitalize on early inefficiencies before others catch on.
7. [Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price
- Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) was supposed to announce earnings at 2pm JST. They didn’t. Someone (or people) decided that meant there might be a takeover. There was.
- The stock popped nearly 15% to ¥6,200, paused, was flat for an hour, then popped again, closing at ¥6,150/share. Post-close, we get a deal at ¥6,340/share.
- A disappointing process. At ¥6,240, the Special Committee said it was “far from a standard that takes into account the interests of TargetCo’s minority shareholders.” At ¥6,340, they dealt. Aaaargh.
8. [Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- We are now 40% higher than the initial bid and the best bid is approaching the top end of Valuation Agent’s top-of-DCF-range prices. There may be a bit more. Maybe.
- The question now is only whether Minebea responds. If it does, there is a little juice left, but if not, that’s it. It should get done.
9. [JAPAN M&A] Shionogi (4507) Bids for Torii Pharma (4551) – Split Price Deal on Weak Transparency
- Today after the close, Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) and Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP) announced an agreed deal whereby Shionogi would launch a Tender Offer to take over Torii.
- Torii Pharmaceutical shares rallied sharply after earnings so the actual TOB Price of ¥6,350/share is not a particularly high premium vs undisturbed. Valuation transparency is limited. Synergies are not included.
- But the price is an ATH, the company is heavily de-levered (so a 23% premium to undisturbed is decent) and the minimum threshold is not high.
10. A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
- A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week.
- For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
- The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday
- Following an extended holiday beginning May 1st, the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) resumes trading on May 6th.
- The WEEKLY close before the holiday—during a shortened trading week—was modestly negative. However, the index would need to decline to 3697 or lower to trigger a buy-the-dip opportunity.
- Since the index has already closed 1 week down, our time model suggests there is a good chance (62%) it could go up this week.
2. Toyota (7203 JP) Post-Earnings Outlook Amid ¥180B Estimated U.S. Tariff Cost
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) expects U.S. tariffs, material costs and a weak(er) dollar to dent profits. The automaker estimated the levies directly costing it 180 billion yen in April/May.
- The stock fell after the company reported its fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Guidance for the coming year came in lower than expected, with tariffs taking a bite out of profits.
- In a previous insight we flagged the stock as overbought; those model targets remain valid. Here, we analyze updated support to gauge the pullback’s potential depth.
3. NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip
- In our previousNIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
- The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
- This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.
4. TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk’s Replacement
- 2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk’s role in the US government has damaged the brand.
- Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
- Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US) remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.
5. APPLE (AAPL US) Post-Earnings Outlook: A Potential Tactical Buy
- Apple (AAPL US) started a mild pullback after releasing its earnings on May 1st. We think this pullback may be a BUY opportunity.
- Some analysts believe the Trump administration’s tariffs will ultimately prove transitory. While near-term impacts are surely expected for Apple (AAPL US) , they’re probably short-term in nature.
- Our model suggests a potential buying opportunity in Apple (AAPL US) may be approaching. This insight outlines the tactical considerations behind that view.
6. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%
- Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
- Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
- Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Don’t Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON!
- The bear market rally in the US stock market continues as investors try to justify the tariffication of global trade and ignore its economic consequences. A FREE LUNCH.
- Soft and hard economic indicators in the US are falling, with some alarming numbers in the travel industry.
- US companies face potential blowback from Chinese consumers that provide 7% of S&P revenue.
2. HEM: Dovish Prices Deranged
- Despite concerns, activity continues to be robust with stable manufacturing and tight labour markets.
- There is a persistent issue of high underlying price and wage inflation.
- The Bank of England’s rate cut ahead of the Federal Reserve is seen as highly irrational, as rates do not reflect the rebounding risk sentiment.
3. HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
- The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
- Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
- An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.
4. BoE Closer To Slowing Cuts
- The shockingly divided MPC’s offsetting votes weren’t the most hawkish signal alongside its 25bp rate cut. Most of the five backing it were only recently convinced.
- Maintained guidance for a gradual and careful approach not only disappoints dovish hopes, but signals a 5:2:2 bias between a slower, constant and faster pace of cuts.
- We still expect this gradualism to help the BoE resist cutting in August (and June) while waiting for dovish evidence that never emerges, making this the last cut.
5. The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering
- China’s exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in.
- But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.
- This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing’s struggles to lift consumption at home.
6. Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?
- Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade policy.
- However, quietly—but increasingly noticeably—the administration is beginning to make progress on a few of the core objectives outlined in the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This accord seeks to leverage the U.S. defense umbrella to compel major trade partners to accept:a weaker USD, and increased purchases of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) in exchange for continued security guarantees— with tariffs serving as the primary tool in this negotiation strategy.
- While this approach has clearly sparked outrage globally—and while one can certainly question the strategic coherence and execution—the first signs are emerging that suggest it might be achieving some of its intended effects.
7. Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025
- April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.
- Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.
- Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession
8. Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?
- We are seeing a resurgence of buy signals, or at least constructive signs for stock prices.
- Against that, the stock market is also facing a number of bearish headwinds, such as the “Sell in May” negative seasonality influence.
- We believe the intermediate path of equity prices is down. However, the reflex rally is a much-hated one and the short-term pain trade may be up.
9. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)
- The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%. Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.
- Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month. We reduced the portfolio’s volatility & increased its Sharpe ratio.
- At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.
10. The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!
- Greetings from Copenhagen.
- There’s plenty of geopolitical tension to unpack this week, with three major developments over just the past few days: 1) an Indian attack on Pakistan, 2) new events in the Middle East, and 3) the launch of U.S.–China trade talks.
- India attacked Pakistan in the Kashmir region overnight, and Pakistan swiftly retaliated.
Singapore, 8 May 2025 — It is with deep sadness that we share the passing of Nels Radley Friets, a treasured member of Smartkarma’s Board of Directors, who passed away on Saturday, 3rd May 2025.
Nels played a pivotal role in Smartkarma’s journey. With a rare combination of vision, wisdom, and unwavering integrity, he helped guide our growth and strengthen our foundation. As a board director, Nels upheld the highest standards of governance—championing principled decision-making, ethical conduct, and long-term stewardship that shaped both our direction and culture.
Beyond his distinguished career in business and finance, Nels was a man of deep humanity and reflection. A prolific poet and firm believer in the power of humour, he brought warmth, clarity, and moral conviction into every conversation. His intellect inspired us. His mentorship shaped us. His laughter reminded us to stay humble and grounded.
Raghav Kapoor, CEO of Smartkarma, shared:
“Nels was more than a colleague—he was a guiding presence and a pillar of our Board. His counsel was steady, his convictions principled, and his expectations uncompromising in the best sense. He held us to a higher standard—with grace, humility, and an unwavering belief in doing what’s right. We will miss his voice, his humour, and his integrity—but his values remain deeply woven into how we think, act, and lead.”
In honour of his enduring legacy, Smartkarma is proud to launch the Nels Radley Friets Smartkarma Fellowship for Future Finance Leaders. This Fellowship celebrates Nels’ lifelong commitment to mentorship, integrity, and leadership. It will be awarded annually to outstanding university-level students aspiring to pursue careers in business, entrepreneurship, or finance, offering recipients five years of complimentary access to the Smartkarma Research Platform — equipping them with the tools and insight to thrive in the capital markets.
As we mourn this profound loss, we also reaffirm our commitment to the values Nels championed: curiosity, courage, mentorship, and grace. His legacy lives on in our work, in those we support, and in the standards we strive to uphold.
In His Own Words:
“Our legacy is what we do with our talents, that is understood. What matters is not what is said on Sunday, but done in the week. That is where our stewardship legacy is defined, so to speak. Of our finances, talents, opportunities, and self we are responsible. When we are good stewards of these, the results will be incredible.”
— Nels, 29 September 2013, ENCS
For more information on the Fellowship and how to apply, please visit https://thenrfsmartkarmafellowship.com.