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1. ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
- On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.
2. Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Trading – Very Strong Demand, Weak Price Momentum
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn (including over-allocation) in its H-share listing.
- FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
3. Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
- CaoCao (2643 HK) is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
4. CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights
- CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
- I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.
5. Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either
- Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.
6. MakeMyTrip Placement – Basically a Selldown by Trip.com
- Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.
- The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
7. CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
- CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
- In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.
8. Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) priced its H Share at HK$36.30 to raise HK$10,128.9 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
- I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- Haitian had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.
9. Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company is the largest listed condiments producer in mainland China which is seeking to raise up to HK$9.56 billion (US$1.22 billion) in Hong Kong listing.
- It is offering 263.2 million shares at HK$35 to HK$36.30 each. The final offer price is expected to be announced on 17 June.
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food is the largest condiments company in China with strong brand power with loyal customers.
10. Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt
- Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) Biocon Ltd is looking to raise up to US$522m in its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
- The deal is well flagged, having gone through rounds of board/shareholder approvals. The QIP has also been covered by domestic media reports.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover
- Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle
- The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share.
- Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.
2. [Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way
- The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful.
- That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months.
- And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime.
3. Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers
- Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks.
- The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life.
- There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!
4. Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
- A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
- With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
- Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.
5. Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
- Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
- The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
- Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.
6. [Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow
- Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM.
- There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
- I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.
7. HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
- HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
- HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.
8. [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
- Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
- The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm).
- This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend.
9. ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present
- On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
- The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
- A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent
10. [Japan M&A] NTT Docomo Buys Out Carta Holdings (3688) Minorities – Done Deal
- On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
- It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
- The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
- As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
- In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
- The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.
2. Nikkei 225 Outlook And Profit Targets Amid Uncertainty Over Japan-US Tariff Negotiations
- Japan PM Ishiba says disagreements remain with US on tariff talk. This is probably the main catalyst that could slow down the current Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rally.
- Our WEEKLY Nikkei 225 model signals a mildly overbought status, the index could go higher, but will face harder resistance in 1-2 weeks from now.
- We don’t see the Nikkei pulling back this week, we think it will close this week up.
3. Xiaomi (1810 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
- Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Popular Strategies: Diagonal Spreads account for 27%of all strategies. This versatile strategy allows for many different profiles in terms of upfront premium (positive or negative), and time horizon.
- This Insight of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies.
4. Alibaba (9988 HK) Options Insights: Navigating Contango and Skew for Profitable Trades
- Context: Analysis of Alibaba’s (9988 HK) implied volatility surface as of June 20, 2025, examining implied volatility patterns, skew structures, and open interest distribution across various expiry dates.
- Highlights: One-month implied volatility at 31.6% is trading at historically cheap levels (13th percentile), while the skew shows a pronounced volatility smile favoring spreads.
- Why Read: Essential for options traders and volatility strategists looking to capitalize on the historical cheapness of current implied volatility levels, particularly given the favorable skew structure for spread strategies.
5. Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from Options Trading
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) live multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Diagonal Spreads continue to enjoy popularity. Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon and exhibit a slightly bearish bias.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
6. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum
- Sanghyun Park has reported in detail about what seems to be going on behind closed doors at Samsung in regard to the foundry spin-off: read his insight – highly recommended.
- We maintain our BUY recommendation for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and although we have not yet seen a strong rally, we see the stock slowly drifting upward from its bottom.
- Our short-term tactical perspective covering the next 2–3 weeks is presented in this insight.
7. HKEX (388 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on HKEX (388 HK), executed over the period from 9 to 13 June.
- Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, for example a self-financing Diagonal Put Spread using weekly options, or a Diagonal Call Spread generating 3.9% upfront yield.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
8. Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity
- Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
- Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
- The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.
9. KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising > 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung’s won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.
- Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought.
- Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.
10. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look
- Single stocks were softer on the week, with breadth continuing to weaken.
- Put volumes surged to their highest levels since April; Put open interest continues to rise.
- Implied volatility declined on the week despite elevated demand for downside protection.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High
- UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
- Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
- Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.
2. BoE Still Seeking Evidence
- Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
- Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
- We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.
3. US/China: Sprint vs Stamina
- The recent US/China trade talks highlighted Beijing’s superior leverage and determination.
- Beijing is in a stronger position in terms of both leverage and willingness to persist.
- Avoiding a re-escalation after the current 90-day truce relies on Washington making more concessions.
4. HEW: Playing For Time
- US diplomacy with Iran has been given two weeks, bringing it close to the reciprocal tariff deferral date. Both may roll later, while central bankers wait to see the impact.
- Unsurprising UK and EA inflation data offered little direction, nor did the BoE or Fed. Brazil and Norway delivered opposite surprises outside a flood of cautious statements.
- Next week is much quieter for data and decisions (TH and MX). The flash PMIs are the main global highlight, although some HICP and PCE data are notable on Friday.
5. Euro Area Wage Costs Closer To Target
- Non-wage labour costs rebounded in Q1, damping the overall slowdown to a surprisingly modest extent after the crash in negotiated wage growth revealed in May.
- Unit labour cost growth has encouragingly slowed below 3%, with the latest impulse only 0.6% q-o-q. Any further easing here could encourage monetary easing to resume.
- Stability at a low unemployment rate still suggests the policy setting is close to neutral, so we doubt disinflationary pressures will mount further and forecast no more rate cuts.
6. EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target
- Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.
- Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.
- Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.
7. China – Where To Invest?
- Overweight AI, high tech, robotics, renewables and bio-tech. Underweight on consumer discretionary, property and export cyclicals.
- China has become even more vital to its green transition. At the same time the shift in government mindset means that domestic innovation is advancing at a breathtaking pace.
- That said the economy is yet bottom. The profit cycle downturn is worsening; As of April 30% of manufacturing companies were loss making, up from 25% in November
8. Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!
- Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
- What a comeback by JJ Spaun at Oakmont yesterday (sorry to the non-golfers), and what a comeback risk is about to make this week.
- Iran’s mullah-tocracy is on the brink, and it could be a catalyst for a big bounce in risk appetite.
9. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 June 2025
US interest rate cuts expected soon as economic data deteriorates across sectors.
Indonesia delays rate cuts; Philippines eases but risks peso weakness.
China retail sales rise, but property sector continues to underperform.
10. Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares in Korea – Government Likely to Provide a GRACE PERIOD
- The Korean government may not force the listed companies to suddenly cancel all their treasury shares all at once.
- Rather, a GRACE PERIOD is likely to be given for companies with existing treasury shares by which they need to cancel them.
- Going forward, the Korean government is likely to decide to allow acquisition new of treasury stocks only when the purpose is to cancel them, excluding bonus payments or stock compensation.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range
- TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
- ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short
2. AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions
- AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
- AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
- Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?
3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan’s Next Driver; Memory 1Q25
- Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst… AI Still in Its Early Phase
- Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook
4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.
- There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.
- In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
- Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.
5. Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?
- Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
- Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
- What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?
6. TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
- TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
- Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
- We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally
7. Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts – The Memory Market Finds a New Gear
- DRAM — Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
- NAND Flash — Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
- Conclusion — Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Horizon Robotics Placement – Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
2. [Japan ECM/Index] Azoom (3496) Offering to Enable Move to TOPIX
- On Friday 6 June, Azoom (3496 JP) announced it would conduct an offering (small issuance of new shares, some Treasury shares, larger selldown by the main shareholder).
- That comes in conjunction with a transfer to TSE Prime from TSE Growth, which itself leads to a TOPIX Inclusion trade next month.
- The company has decided to tack on a special dividend for this year, on top of growth and more liquidity. None of this is especially bad.
3. Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
- ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.
4. Xtalpi US$860m IPO Lockup Expiry – Last of the Lockup Release with Nearly All Shares in CCASS Now
- XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 13th Jun 2024 after raising US$126m. Its one-year lockup will expire soon.
- QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
5. Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH), the world’s largest refrigeration and air-conditioning control component manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for a H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.
- Sanhua’s market share in the global refrigeration and air-conditioning control component market was 45.5% in terms of revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
- The fundamentals are good, with the positives (refrigeration and aircon rising growth, stable margin, and cash generation) outweighing the negatives (automotive declining growth, US tariffs overhang).
6. Keymed Bioscience Placement – Track Record Isn’t Great but Recent Performance Has Been Better
- Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK), along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&D requirements.
- Keymed Biosciences, a China-based biotech company which focuses on therapeutic areas of autoimmune and oncology
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
7. ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) might launch their IPOs soon.
- On the placements front, Wistron Corp (3231 TT) launched its well flagged GDR, along with a few more deals this week.
8. Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
- FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
9. Everest Medicine Placement: Another Sell-Down by CBC, Some Caution Warranted
- Everest Medicines (1952 HK) aims to raise around US$150m in a secondary sell-down of shares conducted by CBC Group.
- This comes on the heels of a similar secondary sell down in Jan 2025, whereby CBC sold ~US$100m worth of stock, priced at a 10% discount.
- In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
10. Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective
- Fundamentals first, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK)‘s IPO is interesting given a positive growth outlook – 1Q25 growth accelerated to 14.8% with margin expansion.
- We value the H-share at HK$39.35, 8.4% higher than the high-end of the IPO price based on 28.2x FY25F PER to reflect its significantly stronger 3-year earnings growth.
- It equals 5.9x pre-money FY25F P/B, justified by ROE of 21.8-22%, sharply ahead of peers. Net cash equals 12.4% of its A-share market cap.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
- For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
- The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
- There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.
2. Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
- There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
- The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July.
3. [Japan M&A] Carlyle Deal for TRYT (9164) – Great Exit for Speculators as HR Co Targets Are Desirable
- In early February, articles suggesting the PE owner of TRYT (9164 JP) wanted to cash out. Performance post-IPO had been bad. Catching up to the IPO price would be tough.
- But a second round of bidding came about, so the stock went limit up. Then it settled in the ¥480 range for three weeks. Then started to climb.
- Now the company and its PE firm owner have announced a sale to a new PE Firm at ¥880/share. This is below IPO Price but it will get done.
4. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
- Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer.
- The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
- Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.
5. [Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal
- The long-term major owner now chairman is getting out. The company was shopped. And bought. And this is the deal. ¥2,830 which is about 5.7x this year’s EBITDA.
- It could have been done a bit better, but irrevocables are 48.5% out of the 50.01% minimum and other directors get this past the minimum hurdle.
- Transparency is lacking but it is an all-time high and you can’t do much about it.
6. Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion
- Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
- Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.
- Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.
7. Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
- There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
- The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.
8. Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Fuji Corp (7605 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP).
9. [Japan M&A] Hino & Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck to Join; Bagholding Ugly for Minorities, and a Re-IPO
- On the 10th of June, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) and Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck & Bus Company announced their long-awaited integration plans. We have a deal.
- An agreement was signed in 2023, but Hino got in big trouble for falsifying testing data on gasoline engine emissions/efficiency. Hino took a hit in 2023, then 2025. Talks advanced.
- The deal announced suggests Toyota has thrown itself and Hino minorities under the proverbial Fuso bus. It’s VERY odd. But… it deserves a look because 2026 will see a re-IPO.
10. A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
- AH spreads are slightly narrower. BANKS, INSURERS, BROKERS, INDUSTRIALS, PHARMA and UTILITIES see significant H-share outperformance vs their A pairs. TECH, CONSUMER, ENERGY mixed to worse.
- Ongoing skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H outperform sharply but those with H Premia contracted. Quiddity Portfolio alpha trending strongly.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement
- As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
- The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
- This insight evaluates possible scenarios for the possible 2-4 weeks, beyond the June 20 date when the index review will become effective.
2. BYD (1211 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- This Insight analyzes sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on BYD (1211 HK), executed over the period from 2 June to 9 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, from an in-the-money bear put spread, to a bold short-term bullish iron condor, and a butterfly aiming at a narrow price target.
- Why read: In-depth breakdown of complex option strategies, shedding light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
3. Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
- A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
- We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index
- Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate).
4. Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
- The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It’s modestly overbought and could go higher.
- News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.
5. Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
- Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
- Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.
6. US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding
- We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
- Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
- Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.
7. JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
8. S&P/ASX 200: All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge
- S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
- Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
- We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.
9. Ping An (2318 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
- Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), executed over the period from 6 to 12 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: Many strategies creatively utilize weekly expiries, sometimes employing options with as little as one or two days to maturity to generate upfront yield or financing.
- Why read: Detailed examples and break-down of complex option strategies provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
10. Meituan (3690 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Meituan (3690 HK), executed over the period from 5 June to 11 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: A range of strategies, spanning time-horizons from just a few days to several months. Including a low-cost call spread with the potential to return approximately 8x the invested premium.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK: Some Workshy Start Looking
- A broadly softer labour market report could easily be used to overstate the fundamental significance. Unemployment’s rise was expected and only 0.2pp on the year.
- Employment is growing and redundancies are low, but when the inactive look for work, long-term unemployment rises. Yet the workshy will struggle to compete for jobs.
- Wage growth slowed despite a 0.5% m-o-m impulse. Costs are rising excessively fast, so the BoE still doesn’t have space to keep easing, and we expect no more rate cuts.
2. UK: Retreating To Trend Again
- Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
- The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
- BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.
3. US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs
- Another downside surprise in headline US inflation reflected the lack of pass-through from tariff increases, with headline and core rates of only 0.1% m-o-m in May.
- Commodities, less food, energy and car prices stalled as airfares and apparel fell again. But services (ex-shelter) inflation stayed too high to be consistent with the target.
- Low headline rates raise dovish political pressure and the risk of a cut, but the tight labour market should encourage the Fed to keep rolling potential cuts later.
4. HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
- Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
- Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
- The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.
5. Why “Sell America” Isn’t Equity Bearish
- We have been fairly cautious in our U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean we are equity bearish.
- We are embracing the “Sell America” trade because of a combination of deteriorating U.S. fiscal position and the trade war policy pivot that’s contributing to falling confidence in USD assets.
- The key risk to our “Sell America” thesis is whether the U.S. can sustain its technology dominance in the next investment cycle.
6. US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
- The US Administration is undermining foreign demand for dollar assets at the same time, supply for US treasury debt is rapidly expanding.
- The Fed is constrained from lowering the Fed Funds rate due to rising yields in the long end of the treasury market.
- The long end of the US Treasury market is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff policies. The US equity market will follow as risk premiums rise.
7. Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors
- In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
- The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
- Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.
8. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
India cuts interest rates as currency pressure eases, aiming to boost private investment without triggering inflation concerns.
China’s exports rise overall despite a sharp drop to the US, showing strength through trade diversification.
Regional trade flows shift sharply, with Taiwan and Vietnam surging ahead of potential tariffs, while uncertainty clouds second-half investment outlook.
9. Inflation Concerns Overdone
- For Trading Post a global recession has never been on the cards, nor a resurgence in inflation.
- If mainstream economists continue to raise alarms about a tariff induced inflation surge, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how inflation works and what drives it.
- Current trends in broad money growth, credit cycles and monetary policy settings simply don’t support the prevailing inflation narrative.
10. Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks
- China’s crashing exports to the US partly reflect avoidance measures, including rerouting through other countries and marking down import prices to subsidiaries.
- Exports to the EU and UK are only trending slightly higher, making little difference to disinflation. ASEAN countries, and especially Vietnam, are seeing trade surge again.
- The US may clamp down on avoidance measures that have eased the shock so far. It could make a painful example of one to encourage concessions from all trade partners.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.
- There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
- Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
- If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek’s New Chip Could Outperform Apple’s; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo
- Rumors That Mediatek’s Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple’s Chips Used in the iPhone 17
- Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
- PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches
3. Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference
- Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
- The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
- Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger.
4. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)
- Intel Corp (INTC US) CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”
- Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.
- In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives
5. Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review, Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook Etc.
- DRAM revenues for Q125 amounted to $28.6 billion, up 1.5% QoQ and up 57.4% YoY.
- NAND Q125 revenues amounted to $13.3 billion, down 20.6% QoQ and down 5.5% YoY.
- Micron’s HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030. Transformation incoming!
6. Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown
- Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call
- Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come
- Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales
7. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.