Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
• Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
• Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds

2. TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
• Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
• TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

By Patrick Liao

• 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
• Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
• Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.

4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
• UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
• ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread

5. ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
• Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
• Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC – What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm — Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC… and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term
• DRAM Memory Outlook — Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25
• PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year 

7. Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
• Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
• Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.

8. TechChain Insights: Kinik – The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC’s Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below
• Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment… also at 100% for SBU Segment
• Takeaways — Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions… Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC’s Recent Activity Momentum

1. Apple Intelligence. What’s Another Year?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Apple failed to deliver on the highly anticipated Siri makeover, noting that it didn’t meet their quality standards and effectively pushing it out for another full year 
• Internal rivalries, divided opinions on the direction AI should take, organizational restructuring, unwillingness to do meaningful acquisitions would all appear to be contributing to Apple’s AI woes
• Apple’s peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple is the polar opposite. What’s another year? Failure.

2. Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND’s Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company
• Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially
• HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say (II)

By Patrick Liao

• Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  
• Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&D costs, market and profitability challenges.
• Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry

4. Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
• Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
• Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors 

5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically High Spread Persisting; UMC High Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: +3.5% Premium; Extreme vs. History, Consider Shorting ADR Spread
• ASE: +2.4% Premium; Approaching Level to Long the ADR Spread

6. Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside
• No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either
• Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists

7. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
• Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
• TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot 

8. TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./
• Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.
• Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.

9. Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond – Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• 1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data — Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek
• Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices — High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors
• Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 — This Plays to Mediatek’s TSMC Advantage

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
• ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
• TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
• There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
• TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
• MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 

4. MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management’s EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
• By then, we expect Air, Defense & Space revenues to double and the division’s operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
• Given Japan’s uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 

5. Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
• Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  

6. AMD Advancing AI 2025: Key Takeaways

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD snagged Sam Altman as a guest speaker and advocate for the company’s next generation MI450 accelerator product 
• Oracle announced their intention to create a zetascale AI cluster based on AMD’s MI355X GPUs
• Marvell announced its custom Ultra Accelerator Link (UALink) scale-up offering. Astera Labs will be next in line.

7. Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• After nearly two years of decline, TOWA’s new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
• Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
• Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.

8. MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

• We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
• Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
• Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

9. Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Submarine Milestone Validates CSBC’s Strategic Role: Taiwan’s June 17 maiden sea trial of the Hai Kun-class submarine highlights CSBC as the sole builder of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program.
• Scale of Program Is Significant vs. Market Cap: Seven additional submarines are expected to follow, with a reported program budget of NT$284bn (~US$9.5bn), over 12x CSBC’s current US$760m market cap.
• Emerging Naval, Drones, & Energy Platforms Provide Optionality: Beyond submarines, CSBC is expanding into unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and offshore wind engineering, offering long-term exposure to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
• ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short

2. AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
• AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
• Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan’s Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst… AI Still in Its Early Phase
• Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook

4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

By Patrick Liao

• There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
• In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
• Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

5. Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
• Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
• What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

6. TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
• Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
• We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally

7. Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts – The Memory Market Finds a New Gear

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• DRAM — Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
• NAND Flash — Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
• Conclusion — Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets

1. NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
• He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
• NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

2. Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
• Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
• The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 

3. NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
• NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
• Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

4. Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
• Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
• China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

5. Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.

By Patrick Liao

• Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
• Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
• In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
• CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

7. GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

By Patrick Liao

• Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
• Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
• Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
• GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

9. PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
• Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
• Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value

1. Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
• TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
• The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
• AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
• Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
• ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
• CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

4. Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
• This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
• If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.