Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. Apple Intelligence. What’s Another Year?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Apple failed to deliver on the highly anticipated Siri makeover, noting that it didn’t meet their quality standards and effectively pushing it out for another full year 
• Internal rivalries, divided opinions on the direction AI should take, organizational restructuring, unwillingness to do meaningful acquisitions would all appear to be contributing to Apple’s AI woes
• Apple’s peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple is the polar opposite. What’s another year? Failure.

2. Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND’s Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company
• Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially
• HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say (II)

By Patrick Liao

• Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  
• Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&D costs, market and profitability challenges.
• Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry

4. Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
• Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
• Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors 

5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically High Spread Persisting; UMC High Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: +3.5% Premium; Extreme vs. History, Consider Shorting ADR Spread
• ASE: +2.4% Premium; Approaching Level to Long the ADR Spread

6. Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside
• No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either
• Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists

7. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
• Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
• TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot 

8. TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./
• Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.
• Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.

9. Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond – Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• 1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data — Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek
• Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices — High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors
• Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 — This Plays to Mediatek’s TSMC Advantage

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
• ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
• TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
• There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
• TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
• MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 

4. MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management’s EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
• By then, we expect Air, Defense & Space revenues to double and the division’s operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
• Given Japan’s uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 

5. Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
• Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  

6. AMD Advancing AI 2025: Key Takeaways

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD snagged Sam Altman as a guest speaker and advocate for the company’s next generation MI450 accelerator product 
• Oracle announced their intention to create a zetascale AI cluster based on AMD’s MI355X GPUs
• Marvell announced its custom Ultra Accelerator Link (UALink) scale-up offering. Astera Labs will be next in line.

7. Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• After nearly two years of decline, TOWA’s new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
• Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
• Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.

8. MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

• We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
• Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
• Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

9. Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Submarine Milestone Validates CSBC’s Strategic Role: Taiwan’s June 17 maiden sea trial of the Hai Kun-class submarine highlights CSBC as the sole builder of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program.
• Scale of Program Is Significant vs. Market Cap: Seven additional submarines are expected to follow, with a reported program budget of NT$284bn (~US$9.5bn), over 12x CSBC’s current US$760m market cap.
• Emerging Naval, Drones, & Energy Platforms Provide Optionality: Beyond submarines, CSBC is expanding into unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and offshore wind engineering, offering long-term exposure to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
• ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short

2. AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
• AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
• Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan’s Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst… AI Still in Its Early Phase
• Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook

4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

By Patrick Liao

• There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
• In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
• Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

5. Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
• Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
• What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

6. TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
• Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
• We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally

7. Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts – The Memory Market Finds a New Gear

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• DRAM — Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
• NAND Flash — Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
• Conclusion — Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets

1. NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
• He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
• NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

2. Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
• Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
• The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 

3. NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
• NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
• Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

4. Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
• Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
• China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

5. Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.

By Patrick Liao

• Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
• Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
• In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
• CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

7. GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

By Patrick Liao

• Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
• Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
• Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
• GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

9. PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
• Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
• Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value

1. Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
• TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
• The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
• AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
• Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
• ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
• CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

4. Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
• This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
• If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening. 

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
• UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
• CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

2. SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?

By Patrick Liao

• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)‘s 1Q25 results were in line, while the 2Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious.  
• The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.6%, while China and Eurasia made up the remaining majority.  
• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s top priority remains its strategic focus on core business and near-term execution.

3. AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
• AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
• Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.

4. Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
• SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
• Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips’ Peformance Leaks

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand
• Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm & Mediatek’s Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs — And All Roads Lead to TSMC’s Process Technology
• Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
• It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
• Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.

7. Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
• Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
• Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.

8. Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

By Patrick Liao

• 2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
• 100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
• 2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.

9. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

By Patrick Liao

• 2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
• 2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
• The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.

10. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

By Patrick Liao

• We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
• The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
• ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
• CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs

2. Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
• They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.  
• Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

3. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
• Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
• Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan’s Big Earnings Week and Apple’s High-Stakes Shift to India

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Major earnings week ahead: Taiwan names like Macronix, Lite-On, Delta, Mediatek report, while global tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple headline a critical week of results.
• Apple’s India shift faces hurdles: Apple plans to move most U.S. iPhone assembly to India by 2026E, but analysts caution full supply chain relocation from China will be difficult.
• UMC and Intel: Strategy and Uncertainty in Focus: Recent updates from UMC and Intel reveal supply chain adaptations and market visibility challenges for 2025E and beyond.

5. Delta Taiwan Vs. Delta Thailand: Valuation Gap Widens After Strong 1Q25; Why AI Now Needs Microgrids

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Delta Taiwan delivered record 1Q25 results, driven by strong AI data center demand; EPS beat Bloomberg consensus by 8%.
• Management highlights microgrids as essential for resilient AI infrastructure amid power grid instability, and challenges keeping national power supply up with data center expansion.
• Valuation gap widens sharply: Delta Taiwan trades at 22x PER vs. 60x for Delta Thailand, despite having stronger 2025–2026E growth. Weak macroeconomic situation also makes Delta Thailand highly vulnerable.

6. Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
• Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
• The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.

7. Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty — Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.
• PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery — Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.
• Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares — Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.

8. MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.
• AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing — NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.
• Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view — AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.

9. MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

By Patrick Liao

• 2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. 
• In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. 
• Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.

10. ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• ASE slightly missed 1Q25 profit expectations; operating margin slipped slightly due to seasonal ATM softness and higher opex from LEAP and test investments.
• LEAP advanced packaging and AI test continue to scale; but still make up only ~6% of revenue; ASE’s exposure to vulnerable mature/legacy chip end-applications remains too high.
• We rate ASE Neutral, vulnerable to global slowdown; citing macro opacity, tariff-related pull-ins, and a non-cheap valuation relative to 2H25 growth uncertainty and risks of a market de-rating.