Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case.
We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

2. Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.

3. Bloks Group IPO – Outgrowing Its Peers, Decent Valuation

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

4. Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

5. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

6. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

7. CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

8. Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well

By Rosita Fernandes, Aequitas Research

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

9. Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.

10. Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss its refiling updates.

Jan 05

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 5, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Bloks Group IPO (0325.HK): Global Offering, The Initial Price Range Is Seen As Attractively Valued

Shanghai-Based Bloks Group, a leader of assembly character toys in China, has announced the initial price range for its IPO in Hong Kong.
The offering is expected to be between HK$55.65 and HK$60.35, implying a market cap of ~HK$14B or ~$1.8B at the midpoint of the price range.
Assuming IPO offer price of HK$58.00, UBS AM Singapore, Greenwoods AM and Fullgoal Investors have agreed to invest ~HK$388M or ~$50M in the offering.

2. Pre-IPO Bloks Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

The assembly character toy segment market size is not big and Bloks is already China’s largest player. So, there will be a day when the growth ceiling is reached.
Bloks’ business model is more similar to Pop Mart, rather than LEGO, but Bloks’ profitability is lagging behind both of them. The current high revenue growth may not be sustainable.
Pre-IPO valuation of Bloks reached RMB7.2 billion. Valuation of Bloks should be lower than Pop Mart. If Bloks’ valuation could reach the industry average after IPO, it is already good.

3. Bloks Group IPO – PHIP Updates – Momentum Remains Strong, Although Some Lingering Doubts Persist

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$188m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss the latest PHIP updates.

4. Didi Global Q324 Results & Two Key Reasons Company May Consider A New Listing in 2025

In Q324, Didi grew slowly, but core margin improved significantly on higher “take rate”
Q324 liquidity position sound, but pace of 2024 investment difficult to sustain
Two important reasons Didi could list shares in ’25, even if cash needs aren’t urgent

5. S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Here’s Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So “Boring”

The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company’s market share and growth ceiling in China.
The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.
S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.’s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.

6. LG CNS: Updated IPO Valuation Analysis

According to our updated valuation analysis of LG CNS, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.4 trillion won, representing target price of 76,383 won per share.
Our base case valuation target price of 76,383 won is 23% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We lowered our target price by 6%, mainly due to greater political risks arising from the recent cancelled martial law and ongoing impeachment of President Yoon.

7. LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large share overhang.

8. Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma – The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion.
Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets.

9. Orum Therapeutics Lowers IPO Price Range

Orum Therapeutics (475830 KS) has lowered its IPO price range to 24,000 won to 30,000 won.
The IPO offering amount will be between 60 billion won to 75 billion won. The expected market cap of the IPO is between 531 billion won to 664 billion won.
Our updated valuation of Orum Therapeutics suggests implied target price of 24,939 won per share, which is 8% lower than the mid-point of the revised down IPO price range.

10. Initial Thoughts on the DN Solutions IPO

DN Solutions is planning to complete its IPO in Korea in 2025. The expected value of DN Solutions is estimated to be about 5 trillion won to 6 trillion won.
DN Solutions’ revenue and operating profit increased at CAGR of 19.9% and 62.2%, respectively from 2020 to 2023.
Currently, the largest shareholder of DN Solutions is GMT Holdings which has a 90.32% stake. DN Automotive (007340 KS) owns a 100% stake in GMT Holdings.

Dec 29

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 29, 2024

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1. Minieye Technology IPO: Valuation Multiples Appear Justified Given Top-Line Growth of 30%+

Minieye Technology, a fast-growing provider of intelligent driving and cabin solutions in China, will price its IPO this week.
The company was backed by CICC Capital, Beijing Siwei, Shenzhen Zeyi, and Mr. Wu Yongming, the current CEO of Alibaba, among others.
IPO valuation multiples appear justified given the company’s top-line growth of 30%+ and full-stack in-house R&D capabilities.

2. 2024 Greater China Logistics & Transport ECM Review & A Look at Potential 2025 Deals

2024 ECM offerings in the Greater China logistics & transport segment included TS Lines (in Hong Kong), SF Holding(Hong Kong), and BingEx (US)
Generally, recent share offerings in the segment have not performed well at all
Looking to 2025, we see several deals, including SHEIN and a possible Didi return

3. Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

Founder Zhu Zhongyuan is a key figure in biotech landscape.So, when Duality first started its entrepreneurial financing, the process was smooth and the starting point of Duality was not low.
The R&D progress of Duality’s pipelines is slower than competing candidates, so they would be in a passive position after market launch. So, Duality’s valuation would be lower than Kelun Bio.
Duality’s pipeline still has “good stories” to tell. There’s a chance its valuation could be higher than RemeGen, whose business model/investment logic have been falsified due to weak sales data.

4. Calendar Effects Trading Strategy: Combining TOY and Santa Rally Effects for Enhanced Returns

Calendar effects in equity markets have persisted despite widespread knowledge of their existence.
Combine the Turn-of-Year (TOY) effect with the Santa Rally phenomenon systematically
The trading approach historically generates 1.4-2.0% returns over a 7-day period, with a win rate of 75% since 2000.

5. China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.29) – Haier Biomedical Plans to Merge with and Absorb Shanghai RAAS

Haier Biomedical plans to merge with and absorb Shanghai RAAS through the issuance of shares, and both parties have signed a letter of intent for the potential merger.
Haier’s acquisition of RAAS helps connect the software and hardware of the blood industry and strengthen the company’s dominant position in the entire industry chain in the blood products industry.
The market value/financial performance of these two are far apart. If the acquisition is completed, it will help Haier improve financial performance, which is obviously more beneficial for Haier.

Dec 22

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 22, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Kioxia IPO Trading – Decent Demand for Decent Upside

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

2. 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia

In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia next year.
This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in Asia in 2025.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, LG Electronics India, Shein, Sony Financial Group, Didi Global, and Okada Manila.

3. 2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)

In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in the USA, Europe, and the Middle East that could complete their IPOs in 2025.
This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in these regions in 2025.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in these regions next year include Starlink, SpaceX, Stripe, Open AI, Klarna, Five Holdings, Monzo, and Ethiad Airways.

4. Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics

Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.
Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.

5. ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of offerings were live in India, in a bid to beat the year-end lull.
On the placements front, there was a large placement for SenseTime Group (20 HK) and a number of smaller deals in India.

6. LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability.

7. Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology (PHIP Updates) – Profitability Are Always the Pain Points

Medical industry characteristics are the seriousness of diagnosis/treatment and the irreversibility of the process, which are the difficulties in implementing technology. The value that AI can provide is limited.
Xunfei’s business model is not To C, but To G (government) model. It’s not possible for SOE customers to pay high price for Xunfei’s AI model/products, leading to questionable profitability.
Pre-IPO valuation has reached RMB8.4 billion. Without sustainable growth and stable profitability, valuation/liquidity of Xunfei after listing wouldn’t be good. We think Xunfei’s valuation could be similar to Yidu Tech.

8. Vishal Mega Mart IPO Trading – Strong Demand Despite Not so Strong Anchor

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM) raised around US$950m in its India IPO.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

9. Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO Trading: Decent Anchor Quality and Strong Subscription Results

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO.
IKS is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

10. IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand

International Gemmological Institute (India) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and IPO valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Dec 15

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 15, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

2. Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Fund Raising Amidst Pipeline Progress Raises Conviction

By Tina Banerjee

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU) has requested a trading halt to the ASX pending an announcement in relation to a capital raising. Normal trading will resume on Monday, December 9, 2024.
Assuming quarterly cash burn rate of A$7M, Paradigm’s cash balance should provide a runway through mid-Q3FY25. The company is in a dire need to raise fund.
With lead drug being in late-stage trial and having huge market potential, Paradigm seems to be an attractive biotech investment opportunity. Recently, optimism is growing surrounding Paradigm’s lead drug candidate.

3. Vishal Mega Mart IPO – Showcasing the Wrong Peers, Somewhat Limited Upside

Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

4. Mao Geping Cosmetics IPO Trading – Highest Demand for This Year

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

5. IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition, and 4x Returns for PE in 18 Months

International Gemmological Institute (India) Limited (IGII) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
In this note, we will look at the company’s past performance and talk about the IPO valuations.

6. LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis

According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095 won per share.
Therefore, our base case valuation target price of 81,095 won is 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We estimate LG CNS to generate sales of 5.99 trillion won (up 6.8% YoY) and net profit of 356.1 billion won (up 7.1% YoY) in 2024.

7. ECM Weekly (9th Dec 2024) – Goodman, Auckland Airport, Kioxia, MNC, DIY, Vishal Mega, Mao Geping

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the deal flow doesn’t seem to be slowing down much into the year end. The coming two weeks will see some of the past IPOs listing.
On the placements front, Goodman Group (GMG AU)‘s block trade was hogging all of the limelight this week.

8. LG Electronics India IPO Preview

LG Electronics India is getting ready to complete an IPO in India in the next several months. The IPO offering size is expected to be about US$1.8 billion.
LG Electronics (066570 KS) plans to sell 101.8 million shares, accounting for about 15% of the post-offer paid up equity capital shares of LG Electronics India.
If LGEI is valued at US$13 billion, then an 85% of this stake would be worth US$11.1 billion, which would be worth more than LG Electronics’s own market cap.

9. 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea

This is our 10th “Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview” at Smartkarma.
This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2025.
These 50 IPOs in Korea are likely to represent more than 80% of all capital raised through IPOs in Korea next year.

10. LG Electronics India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO. The deal will be run by MS, JPM, Axis, BofA and Citi.
LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
LGEI has been the number one player in this industry for 13 consecutive years (CY11-CY23) as per the value market share in the offline channel in India, as per Redseer.

Dec 08

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 8, 2024

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1. Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, LightStream Research

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

2. Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.
Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ‘s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.
Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.

3. Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

4. Goodman Group Placement – Large Shareholder Looking to Raise US$1.2bn but Discount Is Tight

CIC is looking to raise around US$1.2bn, via selling around 2.6% of its stake in Goodman Group (GMG AU) , via a block trade.
Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. Auckland Airport Placement – NZ$1.3bn (US$770m) Cleanup Sale Will Remove the Overhang

Auckland Council is looking to raise NZ$1.3bn (US$772m) from selling its entire stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ).
Overall, the selldown will be a large one for the stock to digest at 10% of shares outstanding and 62 days of three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

6. Mao Geping Cosmetics IPO – Low to Mid-End Looks Reasonable

Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

7. DigiCo Infrastructure REIT IPO – Looks Decent – After All the Adjustments

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise around US$1.3bn in its Australian IPO.
DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

8. LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO

The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.
Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.
On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.

9. Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Has Aggressively Expanded Its Network

PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) is looking to raise US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The firm is the largest home improvement retailer in Indonesia with a 25.2% market share as per 2023 sales
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

10. Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Aiming to Repeat the Performance of Its Parent’s Listing

PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) is looking to raise US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The entity is the Indonesian entity under the Mr DIY group’s list of subsidiaries.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Dec 01

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 1, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

1. Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering – Don’t Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon

Today, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a large secondary offering where banks would sell down shares and the Tsuji family would sell a few shares at the margin.
The stock has been on a rocket for two years. It’s expensive. Growth slows next year. Will this cause momentum to turn? Maybe. The offering is 38% of Max RWF.
I think one could give this a pass, and even sell it if it opens down small.

2. HULIC (3003 JP) – Crossholders Show Up with a BIG (Relative) Secondary Offering

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

Today, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a large secondary offering where about a quarter of the crossholdings will sell down holdings. Some exit entirely. Some partially.
After this selldown, there is a fair bit more to go later, but more of that will be corporate. It’s a BIG offering: 55d of ADV and 55% of MRWF.
It is “only” about $800mm and retail gets 80% of it. The high div yield will be a selling point but there is a lot of debt.

3. Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$3.5 billion primary/secondary offering announcement, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)’s shares have been down 20.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,397 per share (13 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, KEPCO’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 26 November. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

4. FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
In FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.

5. Sanrio Placement – Opportunistic >US$800m Selling at All-Time Highs

A group of domestic financial institutions and the firm’s executives are looking to raise US$840m from trimming their stakes in Sanrio (8136 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. Sanrio (8136 JP): A US$840 Million Secondary Offering

Sanrio (8136 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.9 million shares (29.8 million including overallotment), worth around US$840 million (US$970 million including overallotment).
Sanrio’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 13 December (likely 10 December).

7. Meiji Holdings Placement – Momentum Leading into This Cross-Shareholding Selldown Isn’t the Greatest

A group of investors are looking to raise US$264m from trimming a portion of their stakes in Meiji Holdings (2269 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

8. Kioxia Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we undertake a peer comparison.

9. Kioxia Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuations

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about valuations.

10. Kioxoa Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still a Follower of the Cycle

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Nov 24

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Nov 24, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now looking to raise around US$800m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

2. Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation

Pony AI (PONY US), an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$195m in its US IPO.
As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

3. Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

4. DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

5. SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.
We previously discussed the listing in SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.

6. SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

SF Holding’s HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors

7. LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

8. FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue.
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

9. Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

One important reason S.F. chose to go public on Hong Kong stock market is due to financial pressure, which mainly comes from its heavy asset development model and internationalization strategy.
Considering the discount of the H-share price versus the A-share price, if the IPO pricing is at the lower limit of the range, then the safety margin would be higher.
In the short term, S.F. is better than JD Logistics, so its valuation should be higher than JD Logistics and industry average. Future valuation expansion depends on international business performance.

10. KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) is looking to raise S$600m (US$450m) from a primary placement. The proceeds will be used to acquire interest in two data centers in Singapore.
The deal will be a large one to digest, accounting for 47 days of the stock’s three month ADV. That said, the acquisitions appear to be accretive to bottomline.
In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Nov 17

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Nov 17, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

1. Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail

The past few years, large equity offerings have either been IPOs or secondary offerings (without dilution). Today we get a big dilutive secondary offering from Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP).
This is ~223mm shares or roughly ¥530bn against a current market cap of ¥2.1+trln. A 25% increase in share count. It is quite dilutive, but the stock is not rich.
Because dilutive, not overly-well-flagged, and mostly retail, this could get hammered. The div is not high enough to make it attractive, so one has to appreciate high earnings yield.

2. Kansai Electric Placement – A US$3.5bn Raising Which Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
This will be a large deal for the stock to digest and doesn’t appear to have been particularly well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

3. Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) has announced primary and secondary offerings of up to 223.1 million shares (including overallotment) and a third-party allotment of 29.1 million shares.
JPY239.9 billion of proceeds will be used to improve energy efficiency and decarbonisation, while other funds will be used for data centres, renewable energy and overseas investments.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and 29 November (likely 26 November).

4. Swiggy IPO Trading – Decent Anchor but Tepid Overall Demand

Swiggy Limited raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO, although the demand wasn’t great.
Swiggy Limited is a business to commerce (B2C) marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items (Instamart) and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

5. SF Holdings A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium and past A/H Listings

S.F. Holding (002352 CH) (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now said to be looking to raise around US$1-1.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the past A/H listing and possible premium.

6. ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPOs front, Indian deals flow seemed to be the only one continuing unbated despite the US elections overhang from the past week.
On the placements front, there weren’t many large deals but we did look at upcoming lockup expiries.

7. Sagility India IPO Trading – Lackluster Demand

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

Sagility India (2058883D IN) raised US$250m in its India IPO.
Sagility India (Sagility) is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Healthcare Payers and Providers.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

8. ISU Petasys Rights Issue: Today’s Wild Price Action Has Opened up a Fresh Trading Angle

I initially skipped this rights issue due to the tight 15% discount and lack of hedge options, but today’s 20% drop opens up a potential angle worth exploring.
Today’s selloff stems from pushback on ISU Petasys entering the battery business, not just dilution concerns. This means there’s a high chance we’ll see a lot of leftover, unsold shares.
The strategy is to grab stock rights cheaply or go for the public offering. The main risk is whether the 15% spread holds until listing, but the case is strong.

9. Initial Thoughts on the Klarna IPO

On 12 November, Klarna announced that it confidentially filed public offering paperwork. The company is getting ready for an IPO in 1H 2025.
Klarna’s valuation reached as high as $45 billion in 2021 which declined to as low as $6.5 billion. Its valuation has recently risen to about $14.6 billion.
Klarna generated 13.27 billion SEK in revenue (US$1.2 billion) in 1H 2024 (up 27% YoY). Operating margin improved significantly from -18% in 1H 2023 to -2% in 1H 2024.

10. SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider

SF Holding’s domestic parcel volumes have grown slower than overall market volumes recently; is this strategic, or simply a loss of share?
SF Holding is not closely aligned with any of the large online retail platforms in China; ultimately, is this independence an advantage or a disadvantage?
When will SF Holdings’ varied international operations — and there are a few of them — begin to pull their own weight, in terms of profitability and growth?

Oct 20

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Oct 20, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Hyundai Motor India IPO: Valuation Insights

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.3 billion at a valuation of US$19 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case, Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bear Case and Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs1,865-1,960 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

2. Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – More of the Same, Lots to Watch Out For

Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we talk about the recent updates from its filings.

3. ECM Weekly (14th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, Hyundai, China Res, Swiggy, USS, Akeso, Shiyue

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the live IPOs front, the two Japanese IPOs, Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) and Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) appeared attractively priced. The same couldn’t be said about Hyundai Motor India.
On the placements front, there were deals in Hong Kong, Japan and India.

4. China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky

China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is looking to raise up to US$650m in its Hong Kong IPO.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

5. Akeso Biopharma Placement – The Placing Price Is Not Cheap Despite Positive Business Progress

HARMONi-2 results are impressive and the overall data is solid and reliable. The NMPA has approved NDA of ebronucimab and sNDA of cadonilimab. Akeso’s fundamentals have indeed undergone positive changes.
Akeso’s current market capitalization already partially reflects the positive expectation about the future successful FDA approval of AK112. In our view, the Placing Price is not cheap.
When the market value falls back to below RMB45 billion is a more comfortable valuation to buy Akeso, and below RMB35 billion market value provides a golden opportunity.

6. Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Not for Quick Gain Seekers

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) ‘s USD 3 billion+ IPO opens today, 15th October, at 10:00 am IST. The bidding will remain open until 4:30 pm IST on 17th October.
Near-Term Outlook: Limited Short-Term Gain Potential. While Hyundai is likely to outperform Maruti Suzuki given the valuation discount, it may underperform the broader sector in the near term.
Long-Term Opportunity: For investors with a longer-term horizon, Hyundai presents a relatively low-risk opportunity. Its established brand and world-class manufacturing facilities offer the potential for steady, long-term growth.

7. FCP Capital Sends a Proposal to KT&G to Buy Korea Ginseng Corp for 1.9 Trillion Won

On 14 October, FCP Capital sent a proposal to KT&G to purchase Korea Ginseng Corp for 1.9 trillion won.
Although KT&G stated that it has no intentions to sell Korea Ginseng Corp, this proposal highlights the ongoing pressure by FCP Capital to improve further value in KT&G.
The 1.9 trillion won in proposed purchase price is higher than the 1.2 trillion won to 1.3 trillion won that KT&G revealed as the intrinsic value of Korea Ginseng Corp.

8. CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China’s largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

9. Horizon Robotics IPO – Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

10. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case