Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. The Honda (7267) Offering – Much Easier Than It Looks

At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of Honda Motor (7267 JP) by P&C insurers and others.
We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist.
It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.

2. ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

3. Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters

The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail – 80% of the book – is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share.
The Offering has follow-on “non-discretionary” demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda’s relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.

4. Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Stand Out

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

5. Honda (7267 JP): The Current Playbook

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, LightStream Research

Since the US$3.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Honda Motor (7267 JP)’s shares are down 5% from the undisturbed price of JPY1,791 per share (4 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Honda’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 17 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

6. Timee IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Timee has set an indicative IPO price range of ¥1,350-1,450 per share and will raise US$280m (at the midpoint) where existing shareholders will sell down part of their ownership.
We expect Timee’s earnings to grow as the company is still in its early stages and with further growth in scale, we expect Timee’s margins to continue to expand further.
Our analysis shows that Timee Inc (215A JP) IPO is valued attractively as the company has better-than-peer margin profile which suggests that there is further upside to implied valuation multiples.

7. Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).
The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

8. ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.

9. Sanil Electric IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Sanil Electric reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 35,000 won, which is 16.7% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
The demand ratio from 2,205 institutional investors was 414 to 1. Sanil Electric (062040 KS) IPO will start trading on 29 July 2024.
Our base case valuation of Sanil Electric is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 58,593 won (67% higher than the IPO price of 35,000 won).

10. Gigabyte GDR Offering – Not Wholly Convinced, but Discount at Wide End Is Inline with the Average

Gigabyte Technology (2376 TT) is looking to raise up to US$307m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering. The firm is also looking to raise another US$300m via convertible bonds.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Jul 14

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jul 14, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks.

2. Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO

Today post-close we got confirmation of yesterday’s Reuters scoop of a secondary selldown on Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the stock fell 7.2% in heavy volume.
KKR HKE LP and KSP Kokusai LLC (Koch) will together sell 52.5mm shares plus another 7.8mm+ in the greenshoe. Split is 50/50 domestic/international.
This is 60+mm shares against 51mm shares held by non-passive holders ex-Capital (who has been selling). It’s a lot of stock at a high price.

3. Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range

Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m in its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

4. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced.

5. HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance.
As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big.
The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

6. Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong

Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise around US$850m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

7. ECM Weekly (8th July 2024) – Japan Cross-Shareholding, Honda, Aisin, Timee, Chenqi, Cirrus, Emcure

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we looked at the recently launced offerings of Timee Inc , Chenqi Technology Limited and Cirrus Aircraft.
On the placement front, this week too was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds, this time in Honda Motor (7267 JP).

8. Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day.

9. Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

10. ASICS (7936 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.0 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY218 billion (US$1.4 billion).
Asics’ goal with the secondary offering is to eliminate cross-shareholdings. Asics also announced a material upgrade to full-year forecasts to offset the impact of the offering.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 23 and 26 July (likely 23 July).

Jul 07

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jul 7, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes.
Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime.
At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!

2. Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
Timee’s app allows users to work shifts as short as one hour at restaurants, convenience stores, and hotels, with quick payment for their work.
The bull case rests on favourable market trends, best-in-class revenue growth, good retention rates, credible growth drivers, and top-quartile EBITDA margins.

3. Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up’s IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).

4. Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

Honda Motor (7267 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).
The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan’s corporate governance reforms.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).

5. Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

6. Timee Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Stronger Growth Has Allowed It to Close the Margin Gap

Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m from its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

7. ECM Weekly (1st July 2024)-Aisin, Mitsui, Japan Hotel, Allied Blenders, Webtoon, Hyundai India

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we looked at the upcoming mega-listing for Hyundai Motor India.
On the placement front, the week was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds in Aisin (7259 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP).

8. Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals

Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Industries (6201 JP) are looking to raise US$1.1bn from selling some of their stakes in Aisin (7259 JP).
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Aisin Corp Placement – US$1.1bn Selldown by Toyota and DENSO.
In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.

9. Honda Motor Placement – Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP) .
The possibility of such a selldown was flagged earlier in the week by Reuters. Thus, the deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

10. Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down

Today, Toenec Corp (1946 JP) – an integrated facilities company 50+% owned by Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP) announced Chubu EPCO would sell down 7.7% to go to 43%+.
This is surprising. It suggests there are more selldowns to come. It’s also “big” at 88 days of ADV and about 26% of Max Real World Float (85% retail).
This is an odd sell-down. Chubu EPCO obviously doesn’t want to buy it in. That means overhang for years.

Jun 30

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 30, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

Today after the close, Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive.
Mitsui & Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui & Co vs Peers is less flattering.

2. Big Aisin (7259) Offering Sets Stage for First Toyota Group Full Unwind

Today (27 June 2024) after the close, Aisin (7259 JP) announced three Toyota Group companies (Toyota, Toyota Industries, and Denso) would sell shares in Aisin in a ¥180bn offering.
This is ALL of Denso’s holdings, 63% of Toyota Industries stake, and ~12% of Toyota’s stake. Separately, Aisin announced a 17mm share (6.3%) ¥100bn buyback and a 3:1 split Oct1.
The recent yuho shows us the progress of Aisin’s promised selldown of crossholdings. There are three large chunks left. One is easy. The climb to capital allocation credibility easier too.

3. Sanil Electric IPO Preview

Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share.
The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July.
Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants.

4. Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Aisin (7259 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 38.9 million shares (including overallotment) and a buyback worth a maximum of JPY100 billion or 17 million shares.
Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) are the selling shareholders. The offering aims to reconfigure the company’s shareholder mix and reduce cross-shareholdings.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10 July (likely 8 July).

5. Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception

Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m from its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

6. Aisin Corp Placement – US$1.1bn Selldown by Toyota and DENSO

Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Industries (6201 JP) are looking to raise US$1.1bn from selling some of their stakes in Aisin (7259 JP).
While the deal appears well-flagged, given that it is part of the cross-shareholding unwind theme in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

7. Initial Thoughts on LG Electronics India IPO

According to local media, LG Electronics is reviewing for a potential IPO of LG Electronics India. LG Electronics has approached JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to be potential IPO underwriters.
If LG Electronics’ Indian subsidiary is listed, it is expected to be able to raise at least $500 million from the stock market.
Post IPO, the market value of LG Electronics India is estimated to be between $2.1 billion (3 trillion won) and $4.3 billion (6 trillion won).

8. Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Quasi-Local, Riding the SUV Wave

Hyundai Motor (005387 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

9. ECM Weekly (24th June 2024)-Webtoon, Guzman, Black Ses, Johor Plant, Bajaj Housing, Infratil, Mizuho

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Guzman provided some hope to the Australian market, while Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) and Allied Blenders & Distillers will soon test their respective markets.
There was no dearth of placement this week, with large deals in Hong Kong, New Zealand and India.

10. Local Capital Market Movements Targeting July Implementation of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule

The new pre-disclosure rule starting July 24th will reshape business practices. Local institutions are now preparing by launching dedicated block deal funds, targeting 40 to 80 deals annually.
No rule bars short-sellers from block deals post-pre-disclosure. Local institutions are planning to exploit this, anticipating sellers favoring club deals under new July rules, potentially stabilizing prices for hedge strategies.
Access to club deals will be crucial post-July in Korea’s block deal market. Effective short-selling instruments are also vital with the ban extended until March next year.

Jun 23

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 23, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Hyundai Motor India IPO Preview

Hyundai Motor India is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2H 2024. Hyundai Motor India plans to offer up to 142.2 million shares (17.5% stake) to investors.
Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) currently owns a 100% stake in Hyundai Motor India. The IPO of Hyundai Motor India could raise as much as US$3 billion.
If Hyundai Motor India (HMI) is valued at US$25 billion and HMC sells a 17.5% stake in the company, HMC’s remaining stake in HMI would be worth nearly US$21 billion.

2. Kagome (2811) – Well-Flagged Slightly Dilutive Equity Financing for High ROIC Purchase

In January, Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) announced an acquisition of an additional 50% stake in a US equity affiliate. It is transformational. Incremental ROIC is truly excellent.
At the time, they said they’d finance the purchase with a bridge loan but would sell treasury shares for ¥25bn or less to cover it. They announced the shelf then.
Friday they announced the Offering. Today shares fell 8+%. This is now cheap.

3. Hyundai Motor India IPO: Key Facts and Financials at a Glance

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

Hyundai Motor India’s proposed IPO is an offer for sale by its parent, Hyundai Motor Company, Korea, and reported to raise USD3 billion, potentially making it India’s largest IPO ever.
Hyundai Motor India’s sales growth has been driven by strong domestic and export sales, both in volume and unit realisation.
With SUVs now making up 62% of Hyundai Motor India’s domestic volumes, up from 45% in FY2021, the shift towards premium models has boosted profit margins.

4. Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is a global storytelling platform. Webtoon has launched a Nasdaq IPO to raise US$270-315 million at a US$18.00 to US$21.00 price range.
We previously discussed the IPO in Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we outline our forecasts and valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that Webtoon is attractively valued at the IPO price range.

5. Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
In Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and unsustainable low marketing spending.

6. Kagome Placement – Very Well Flagged Deal but Liquidity Might Be a Concern

Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to repay debt used to fund the acquisition of Ingomar in Jan 2024.
At the time of the acquisition, the company has stated its intention to part finance the acquisition via issuance of treasury shares
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

7. Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions, Buyouts

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$315m in its US IPO, down from an earlier reported float of US$500m.
Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share additional thoughts on valuation.

8. Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

SenseTime Group (20 HK) aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

9. ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we continued to look at Shift Up (462870 KS), Guzman Y Gomez and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), along with Mao Geping Cosmetics.
On the placement front, there were quite a few deals in India, while Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) was the major Asia linked offerings.

10. Guzman Y Gomez IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Not All Shares in Escrow

Guzman Y Gomez raised around US$221m in its upsized Australian IPO.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Jun 16

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 16, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. ECM Weekly (10th June 2024) – Webtoon, Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Guzman, Kakaopay, Telix, Yankuang

By Daniel Hellberg, Tracking Traffic

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, we looked at Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU), QuantumPharm (QUP HK) and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) this week.
On the placement front, there were a few deals across Hong Kong, Australia and Japan.

2. Lalatech IPO: Using YMM:US as Main Comp, Equity Valuation of US$11-12 Bn (Or More) Justifiable

Based on returns and margins, US-listed Full Truck Alliance is best comp
Lalatech probably deserves premium valuation multiples vs Full Truck Alliance
An equity valuation of US$11bn+ justifiable; will investors look at recent flops?

3. Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.
This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

4. Guzman Y Gomez IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuations

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) now plans to raise US$221m, an increase from its earlier target of US$160m, in its Australian IPO.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

5. Shift Up IPO – Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance, undertaken a peer comparison and talked about valuations in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.

6. Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO – Riding on the Founder’s Reputation

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

7. Clarifying BRV’s Post-Block Deal Lockup Conditions Involving Ecopro Materials

In Korea, the lockup period for block deals is set by the seller and underwriters, not by law, and can be adjusted if both parties agree.
BRV obtained consent from Goldman, UBS, and KB for a second block deal after assessing that many initial buyers had sold their shares.
Understanding this lockup structure provides key insights into predicting when the next block deal might occur.

8. Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LY (4689 JP) are the primary shareholders.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.

9. Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Relatively Small in Operating Scale as a Platform

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

10. QuantumPharm IPO Trading – Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.
QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Jun 09

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 9, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. MMG (1208 HK) – $1.1bn+ Rights Offering – Expect Regular Rights Trading Dynamics

Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) today announced a 2:5 Rights Offering to raise US$1.15bn at HK$2.62/share in order to pay down debt from their recent Botswanan copper mine acquisition.
It was a sizeable acquisition, and the near-term EV/EBITDA of the acquisition is 10x or above. The longer-term EV/EBITDA is in the 3s based on expansion later this decade.
The Rights Offering is underwritten, supported by its 67.5% owner. SOUTHBOUND holds 10+%. There are short dynamics, arb dynamics, “don’t wanna spend more” dynamics. There’s a path here.

2. Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.
The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.
A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024.

3. Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

Webtoon Entertainment is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in 2H 2024. Webtoon Entertainment is a subsidiary of Naver Corp (035420 KS).
Webtoon is seeking to raise as much of US$500 million at a valuation of US$3 billion to US$4 billion.
Webtoon Entertainment is one of the largest Korean company related IPOs in 2024.

4. What Did FSS Point Out to Shift Up? & What Impact Would It Have on Bookbuilding Sentiment?

FSS wants Nikke’s MAU data to address revenue concerns. They also seek April and May sales data for Stellar Blade to address valuation concerns despite its recent launch.
Shift Up updated the prospectus with Nikke’s increasing MAU data but didn’t include Stellar Blade sales data. FSS may request further revisions, possibly delaying the IPO again.
Nikke’s MAU has risen but plateaued versus the previous quarter, and uncertainty surrounds Stellar Blade’s April-May sales, potentially impacting IPO pricing.

5. Yankuang Energy Placement – Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged Although Deal Size Is Large

Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) is looking to raise up to US$608m through a primary follow-on, via selling 270m H-shares.
The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 10.6 days of three month ADV and 2.7% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. Sakura Internet Placement – Beneficiary of the AI-Wave Looking to Double Down

Sakura internet (3778 JP) is looking to raise US$127m from its primary follow-on. Proceeds will be used towards purchasing GPU servers, and constructing new data center facilities.
While 11% of total shares outstanding are offered here, the deal would be easily digested by the market, representing just 0.8 days of its three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

7. MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.
The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.
MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).

8. Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Positives – Just Turned Profitable

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

9. Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Korea Revenue Declined, JP Acquisition to the Rescue

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

10. Raspberry Pi IPO Valuation Analysis

Raspberry Pi is expected to raise about £157 million in this IPO. The conditional trading for this IPO is expected to be take place on 11 June.
We estimate Raspberry Pi to generate sales of US$342.1 million (up 28.7% YoY) and operating profit of US$48.5 million (up 29.3% YoY) in 2024.
Our base case valuation of Raspberry Pi is market cap of £772 million or £4 per share (43% higher than the high end of the initial IPO price range).

Jun 02

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 2, 2024

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1. Exedy Corporation Placement – Relatively Large One, Although Buyback Should Aid Share Price

Aisin (7259 JP) is looking to raise US$290m from selling its entire stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP).
While the selldown doesn’t seem to be particularly well-flagged, this appears to be another cross-shareholder unwind in Japan.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

2. Barito Renewables Lockup Expiry – US$8bn Lockup Expiry for Largest Indonesian Market Cap Stock

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end at IDR780/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 29th May 2024.
Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

3. Alibaba/JD.com: Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) both announced the issuance of convertible debt last week (Alibaba on May 23 and JD.com on May 21).
Both have mentioned that the reasons for the issuance are the low funding cost (0.25% coupon for JD.com and 0.5% for Alibaba) and to fund their current share repurchase program.
I think the convertible debt structures makes sense and it is beneficial for both companies to buy back as much as possible at the current share price.

4. Shift Up IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Bear/Base/Bull

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

5. Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case.
We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

6. Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case

Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as Tencent (700 HK) and Sony Corp (6758 JP).
The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.

7. Hoshino Resorts REIT Placement – Another Raising to Fund an Accretive Acquisition

Hoshino Resorts Reit (3287 JP) is looking to raise US$125m from a primary follow-on. Proceeds will be used to acquire the OMO7 Osaka asset.
The REIT has been active on the acquisition front, undertaking a number of capital raisings in recent years.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

8. Shift Up IPO – Peer Comparison – Small in Size but Ranks High on Growth and Margins

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its upcoming South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

9. ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged, and Momentum Has Been Strong Leading into the Offering

Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) is looking to raise up to US$335m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Overall, the deal would be a relatively small one for the stock to digest at just 5.6 days of its three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

10. ECM Weekly (27th May 2024) – Renesas, AUB, Modec, Tata Tech, MUFG, Shift Up, Novelis, Shulan

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Go Digit managed to do well despite somewhat tepid subscription rates, while Shift Up (462870 KS) was looking to be the next hot listing in Korea.
On the placement front, Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) mega-block kept the cross-shareholding unwind going.

May 26

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – May 26, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Renesas (6723) – Denso Selldown Starts; Fourth Large Renesas Block in 6mos (Two More To Come)

Today post-close, Denso Corp (6902 JP) (via BofA) announced a selldown of 78,127,800 shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This is the latest in a line of block exits.
There was the 130mm offering in November last year by INCJ. There was 123mm shares in Jan 2024 by NEC and Hitachi. A month later, 50mm shares from Mitsubishi Electric.
In general, they have been absorbed, but one hasn’t needed to buy in the market. Some have broken price. Here, the pricing range is aggressive.

2. Shift Up IPO Preview

Shift Up (462870 KS) is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in June 2024. Established in 2013, Shift Up is one of the leading game developers in Korea.
The IPO price range is 47,000 won to 60,000 won. The IPO offering amount is 340.8 billion won to 435 billion won.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the market capitalization range of the company ranges from 2.73 trillion won to 3.4 trillion won. This is the second largest IPO in Korea YTD.

3. MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

4. Renesas Block – While Not Particularly Well Flagged, Recent Selldowns in the Stock Have Done Well

Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$1.39bn from selling a portion of its stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).
DENSO’s selldown is a small one at just 4.3 days of ADV. While there is an overhang of around 4% of TSO, DENSO will be locked up for 270 days.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. Shift Up IPO – The Negatives – Changing Monetisation Model, Censorship Issues

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its upcoming South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

6. Shift Up IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).
We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.
Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

7. Shift Up IPO – The Positives – All Games Have Done Well

Shift Up plans to raise up to US$320m in its upcoming South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

8. Raspberry Pi IPO Preview

Established in 2012, Raspberry Pi is getting ready to complete its IPO in London soon. Raspberry Pi provides small, single-board computers.
Raspberry Pi is backed by Sony and ARM Holdings. Nearly 72% of the company’s sales come from commercial customers embedding its products into various consumer devices and other systems.
The company generated sales of US$265.8 million (up 41.5% YoY) and operating profit of US$37.5 million (up 87% YoY) in 2023.

9. Lalatech Holdings: FCF Growth Accelerated, Margins Improved, Fair Value May Be North of $10B

By Andrei Zakharov

Lalatech Holdings, a technology based global logistics company, has updated its application for Hong Kong IPO and disclosed financial results for 2023.
Lalatech Holdings is aiming to raise up to $1B and the company’s IPO looks imminent in the coming months as cash flow growth accelerated, while margins and profitability improved.
My fair valuation of Lalatech Holdings is close to $10B and investors should buy into upcoming IPO given the company’s substantial scale, massive network effects and operating efficiency.

10. Go Digit IPO Trading – Low Subscription Rate, Not All Shares Are Locked Up

Go Digit General Insurance raised around US$315m in its India IPO.
Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

May 19

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – May 19, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO

In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime.
It announced a “Basic Plan” to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
Mitsui E&S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.

2. Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive

Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$451m through a secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 21.9m shares (32% of TSO) of Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s stock.
The deal is a large one to digest at 81 days of three month ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

3. MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

Modec Inc (6269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP), is the seller.
MODEC’s goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).

4. Hyundai Heavy Industries Block – Not Well Flagged and Recent Korean Deals Haven’t Done Well

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) is looking to raise approximately US$258m, via selling 2.6m shares (2.9% of TSO) of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) stock.
The deal is a large one to digest at 14.6 days of three month ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. Giant Biogene Placement – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

6. ECM Weekly (13th May 2024) – Hyundai Marine, Zeekr, Swiggy, Indegene, Aadhar, TBO, Wuxi XDC, ASMedia

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, after a stellar showing by HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the coming week will be a busy one for India listings.
On the placement front, there were no major deals during the week. We did look at Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) planned GDR, and Wuxi XDC’s upcoming lockup expiry.

7. Olympus Corp (7733 JP): ¥100B Buyback Plan Offers an Attractive Exit Opportunity Amid Bleak Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

Olympus Corp (7733 JP) has announced a buyback plan for up to 60M shares, representing 5.15% of outstanding shares, by spending ¥100B from May 13 to December 31, 2024.
The company has posted mixed FY24 results, with revenue beating and operating and net profits missing guidance. Olympus has guided for just 9% revenue growth for FY25.
Overall business outlook of the company seems to be bleak. With limited upside potential expected, it will be wise to tender shares through the company’s buyback offer.

8. ZEEKR IPO: Strong First-Day Return and Upsized Offering

By Andrei Zakharov

ZEEKR, a rapidly growing premium EV maker, has successfully completed its IPO and raised ~$441M. The offering was priced at the top of the range at $21 per share.
The company sold a total of 21M ADSs, up from the initial target of 17.5M shares. ZEEKR’s stock soared more than 30% following its strong debut on NYSE on Friday.
Geely Auto, Mobileye and CATL have acquired ~14.3M ADSs and overall investor sentiment was positive. I believe ZEEKR may succeed as a high-volume EV maker worldwide.

9. Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Continues to Improve, Valuation Gap Narrowing

Lalatech Holdings is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will talk about the updates from its refiling.

10. Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading – More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail