Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

1. Kevin Jiang – The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

• Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management
• Kevin’s background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets
• Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment

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2. Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

By The Bid, The Bid

• Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
• The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
• Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks

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3. U.S. Treasuries and the Trump Effect

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

• If the Fed convinces the market that it is leaving the door open to easing and sees Fed Funds reduction multi-year, then 2yr could hold onto a small discount .
• 10yr yields will likely maintain a small to modest premium to 2yr.
• Funding will keep 10yr Treasuriies elevated unless a slowdown in the economy is evident, but the 10yr budget bill now looks like it will produce a budget deficit in 2026-27.

4. What the Surge in Gold Tells Us About the Stock Market

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• The gold bull is just starting, with strong upside potential in the coming investment cycle.
• The market is undergoing a regime shift. Gold will be useful to hedge against bond weakness in the coming cycle, which will see small-caps dominate large-caps and value dominate growth.
• Gold mining stocks present a long-term opportunity, but may be vulnerable to a short-term setback.

5. Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
• Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
• Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

6. India & Trump’s Trade War

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

• Buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip,  and we are structurally long Indian equities. 
• However the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. Two reasons. 
• First, India’s disappointing economic performance. Second, Trading Post’s expectations that the trade war will be over sooner than consensus is expecting and that a US-China trade deal will be struck.

7. The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

• Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.

• Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.

• Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.

8. US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

• The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
• As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
• Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).

9. Charting India’s Path in an Evolving World

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

• India’s economic future continues to be hotly debated, not least because of Prime Minister Modi’s vision to make it a developed economy by 2047.
• Unfortunately, economic trends haven’t played along. The stellar post-pandemic growth recovery has given way to an abrupt slowdown, led by falling private consumption growth.
• We chat with eminent Indian scholar and noted journalist, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, on the opportunities and challenges facing India.

10. India – Stay Overweight But Hedge

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

• Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
• While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. 
• That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.  

1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
• Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
• Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues

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2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
• Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
• I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

• Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
• January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
• European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks

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4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
• Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
• Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados

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5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
• The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
• On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft. 

6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?

By Alex Ng, Fortress Hill Advisors

• Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
• China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties. 
• It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.    

7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
• A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
• We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.

8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

By Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research

• Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
• This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
• Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

• Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
• Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
• Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead

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10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

• The past week saw insights on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ, SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Hyphens Pharma International (HYP SP), and Bund Center Investment (BTE SP).
• There was also a macro insight on Singapore, an Indonesia Strategy Insight, and a bank screener looking at Thai Banks from Victor Galliano.
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

1. How Oaktree’s Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Howard Marks correctly called the dot com bubble in the early 2000s
• The 1990s were a placid period for credit investors but a hot time for equity investors
• Being too far ahead of your time in predicting market trends can be painful and indistinguishable from being wrong

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2. Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
• We are now at the final innings of the inauguration week, and oh boy did it surprise and entertain right about everyone (including me).
• From full-blown tariffs from the get-go being the base case, a Trump meme coin being launched into the week and a government sponsored Bitcoin reserve (or at least a clear reference to the crypto space during his first week) to barely any mentioning of crypto, no immediate tariffs on China and very accommodative policies on the fiscal side, which makes the 3% deficit target proposed by Scott Bessent look unrealistic at best.

3. Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

By Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

• Jay Peloski, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses the tripolar framework of regional integration and competition between Europe, Asia, and the Americas
• Europe faces challenges with common taxation and revenue creation, Asia is increasingly integrated around China, and the Americas have not fully leveraged North America integration and engagement with South America
• Regional competition is seen in key areas such as AI, climate, and defense, with each region vying for economic influence and competitive advantage amid global shifts and challenges

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4. Generative AI, LLMs, & the Evolution of Product Teams w/ Dr. Thársis Souza | The New Barbarians #005

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

• Mark has 15 years of experience delivering new technology products in a variety of companies and holds a PhD in Computer Science from UCL University of London
• He is the author of the book Taming LLMs and the creator of Podcastify AI
• Mark recapped recent events in the markets, discussed taming LLMs and creating robotic podcasts, and highlighted the success of Bitcoin ETFs

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5. The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

• Let’s start with DeepSeek.
• The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.
• With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

6. Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

By Rikki Malik

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
• The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
• India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 

7. EM Fixed Income Focus: What we know (or don’t) after Week 1

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

• EM markets reacting to executive orders and remarks from President Trump, particularly focused on tariffs
• EM currencies have shown some strength due to lack of tariff implementation so far
• Market relief since the inauguration, but uncertainty remains around tariff policy and other domestic issues

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8. Mexico faces a deficit – and Donald Trump

By Behind the Money, Behind the Money

• President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October, inheriting a delicate economic situation from her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
• Many lower income people in Mexico are benefiting from higher wages and government social programs, but others, particularly middle and higher income earners, feel stagnant economic growth and uncertainty due to US tariff threats.
• The relationship between Mexico and the US, along with Sheinbaum’s plans and the ability to attract outside investment, will be key factors in Mexico’s economic growth under her leadership.

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9. Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Inflation, particularly in housing costs, has been a big theme in recent American life.
• Despite the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, rent price growth has been moderating.
• Multifamily housing developers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and a lack of supply due to decreased activity in the market.

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10. The Shift Of Supply Chains From China To Southeast Asia

By ASEAN Exchanges, ASEAN Exchanges

• China’s rise as a global manufacturing hub was fueled by WTO accession in 2001, supported by export-friendly policies, low-cost labor, and rapid infrastructure development.
• A 1994 currency devaluation and a shift to value-added goods boosted productivity as labor costs increased.
• Since the mid-2010s, rising costs and geopolitical factors have driven supply chains to Southeast Asia.

1. Introducing: Trumponomics

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
• The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
• Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

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2. Trump’s Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

By David Mudd

• Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
• Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. 
• China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump’s first term.

3. Rebuilding The US Physical Economy

By The Bid, The Bid

• The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
• There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
• Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.

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4. Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
• The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
• The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.

5. Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
• It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
• To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.

6. Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top. 
• Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
• In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.

7. Details of the Major Changes in Delisting Rules in Korea

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• On 21 January, the FSC announced the full details of the major changes in the delisting rules in Korea, which should help to reduce the “Korea Discount.”
• This is one of the biggest ever changes to delisting rules in Korea in the past 30 years.
• These changes will be especially important among investors that are interested in small caps in Korea. 

8. Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

• Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
• They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
• Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

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9. Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]

By Web3 Breakdowns, Web3 Breakdowns

• 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
• The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
• The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies

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10. Reasons To Underweight China

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

• Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
• Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
• Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.

1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025

By The Bid, The Bid

• Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
• Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
• BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.

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2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
• The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
• Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates

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3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
• This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
• Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.

4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested. 
• A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
• President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.

5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
• Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
• This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0

By Priyanka Kishore, Asia Decoded

• We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
• Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
• Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.

7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

• This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of  our  43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
• The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
• Tailwinds include, the strength of the  US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices,  India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.

8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
• The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
• We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index. 

9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money

By Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research Services

• We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China. 
• Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions,  69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
• We predicted  the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.

10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

By Nitin Mangal, Trudence Capital Advisors

• The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
• The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
• Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.

1. Global Rates: European rates market update

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

• Market conditions have shifted with increased rates against reduced liquidity, leading to recent sell-offs.
• Despite market noise and uncertainty, the outlook remains constructive on intra-EMU spreads and Euro Area government bond supply for 2025.
• The UK market has seen significant sell-offs in 10-year gilt yields, influenced by fiscal policies and US market dynamics, with expectations of further easing by the Bank of England.

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2. Steno Signals #179: A handful of trades for 2025

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets.
• In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for lower bond yields, which slightly wrongfooted our risk asset view heading into Christmas—after being on a remarkable roll for several months.
• We remain puzzled by the resilience of bond yields (and the USD) despite softer economic surprises and flattening inflation expectations.

3. The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

• Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.
• The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.
• In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.

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4. Trump’s Messy Governing Challenges

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• We reiterate our belief that in the absence of a recession the S&P 500 should register low single-digit gains for 2025.
• However, the emergence of policy implementation risk by the incoming Trump Administration makes us believe the market will experience several volatility shocks during the year.
• Be prepared for a choppy but mildly positive year for stock prices in 2025.

5. Another Way to Skin a Cat?

By Thomas Lam

• Although data interpolation has a long history, the various linear and nonlinear techniques have pros and cons         
• I introduce a hybrid technique to interpolate monthly US inflation-adjusted GDP going back to 1947
• My monthly GDP nowcast through November seems consistent with some growth moderation on a three-month and six-month basis   

6. CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy – Parting Clouds

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

• The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
• GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
• Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.

7. CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin

By Angus Mackintosh, CrossASEAN Research

• We look at the major themes and challenges for listed tech stocks in Southeast Asia including Sea Ltd, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, Grab Holdings, Global Digital Niaga (BELI), and Bukalapak.
• Profitability remains the key quest all in 2025, with only Sea Ltd achieving this in a true and sustainable manner, with Grab moving closer ahead of GoTo, BELI, and BUKA. 
• Increasing take rates through seizing more of the value chain in logistics and advertising is another trend, with Fintech a core focus in shifting the needle on profitability and cross-selling

8. Korea Value Up Index: Winners and Losers in 2025 YTD

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• In this insight, we discuss the details of the share price performances of the Korea Value Up Index (especially among the index constituents) this year.
• It appears that many traders are buying beaten up, higher beta stocks in Korea that were excessively pushed to much lower levels last year. 
• Among the top 20 best performing stocks in the Korea Value Up Index this year, 15 of them (75% of the top 20 stocks) are listed on KOSDAQ. 

9. 5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• On 8 January, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced 5 major potential policy changes in the Korean stocks market which could get implemented in 2025.
• The mandatory lock-up periods for the institutional investors could result in the institutional investors that are active in Korean IPOs to reassess their trading strategies on newly offered issues. 
• Choi Sang-Mok was the most important government official spearheading the numerous financial reforms in Korea. Now that he is the acting President, he is likely to accelerate these financial reforms. 

10. 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

By Rikki Malik

• Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
• Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
• China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth

1. The 10 Most Interesting Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2024

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• Private credit is transforming the world of debt, creating concerns for investors and the broader economy
• Chicken wing prices are volatile due to the poultry industry focusing on breast meat demand, making wings a fall-off product
• Companies like Elf Bar evade FDA regulation by flooding the market with products and rebranding under different names

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2. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

By David Mudd

• Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.
• About 80% of the portfolio’s excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.
• At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and Weibo (9898 HK) .

3. 2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Hello everyone—we hope you enjoyed the holiday season and had a wonderful Christmas.
• The festive season has been relatively quiet macro-wise, with only a few comments from the PBoC and BoJ.
• However, markets seem unwilling to move until there is news on the USD front, which has been driving almost all assets since December.

4. Steno Signals #178 – Brace yourselves, liquidity is coming!

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy New Year, friends, and welcome back to the Steno Signals editorials! My apologies for the silence over the past few days—I celebrated New Year’s Eve (and my 35th birthday) battling a nasty pneumonia, which has taken some time to recover from.
• Thankfully, I am finally better and wanted to share my 2025 thoughts on liquidity with you, as I find myself disagreeing quite a bit with the current semi-bearish consensus.
• We experienced an almost equally “tight” year-end as the tight quarter-end back in September.

5. Surging Share Buybacks in Korea in 2024

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• Capitalizing on the lower share prices combined with the government’s pressure for Corporate Value up improvements, the share buybacks surged in Korea in 2024.
• As of 27 December 2024, the total treasury shares planned acquisition amount by Korean companies increased by 215% YoY to 11.83 trillion won in 2024.
• There have been some mixed share price performances among the companies announcing meaningful share buyback/cancellation announcements this year.

6. Contrarian Bargains Among Santa’s Discards

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• The stock market is likely to advance during the Santa Claus rally window, which began on December 24 and ends January 3.
• But the rally is attributed to an oversold bounce and marked by narrow leadership. Either the rebound fizzles in January or broadens into lagging issues.
• We identified selected contrarian value opportunities for bulls among Santa’s discards for potential outperformance into January and beyond.

7. Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Stock Positioning Update

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

• Top holdings remain unchanged: TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Tencent are almost universally owned. TSMC hits record weights but active funds sell into strength as benchmark weights surpass 10%
• Hon Hai, Hyundai Motor, and Singtel lead recoveries from prolonged declines. Baidu Inc. and Kweichow Moutai see sharp ownership drops.
• Momentum leaders include Accton Technology, CATL, and KE Holdings. By contrast, Axis Bank, PDD, and Reliance face stalling ownership.

8. Estimating Downside Risk

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• The U.S. equity is highly vulnerable because of overvaluation and excessive growth expectations, but valuation is not very predictive of returns over a one-year time horizon.
• We estimate downside risk on the S&P 500 in the 20–30% range in the event of a major bear market.
• Despite our concerns, we see no immediate bearish triggers for investors to adopt defensive positioning in their portfolios.

9. Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Country Positioning Update

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

• China dominates allocations, India and Taiwan are equal 2nd, while South Korea lags a further 7% behind after seeing a big drop in exposure.
• Indonesia leads the ASEAN region, emerging as the top overweight country as a record 79.8% of funds are ahead of the benchmark.
• India sees 62% underweight the benchmark. Vietnam hits new highs in average fund weight (0.97%) and fund participation (34%).

10. End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 57 Companies in Korea in January 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 57 stocks in Korea in January 2025, among which four are in KOSPI and 53 are in KOSDAQ. 
• The ban on short selling of Korean stocks which is still in place is likely to be lifted on 31 March 2025.
• Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of the major lockup periods could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting. 

1. EM Fixed Income: ‘Tis the Season for Volatility

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

• The discussion focused on the importance of politics over economics for emerging markets in 2025, with a specific emphasis on fiscal trajectories.
• Lessons learned include the need to expand imagination of possible scenarios, the impact of specific country situations on returns, and the caution against following consensus trades.
• Market outlook for early 2025 is expected to be choppy and driven by policy announcements, with a key event being the US Inauguration Day on January 20th leading to potential market adjustments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Explains the ‘Hawkish Cut’

By Odd Lots, Odd Lots

• The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, unveiling new year expectations for inflation and economic growth.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly discusses the current state of the labor market, the impact of AI on productivity, and the importance of data and evidence in making policy decisions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

3. Infrastructure mini-series Ep 2: The Low-Carbon Transition: A $100 Trillion Infrastructure Opport…

By The Bid, The Bid

• Global transition to low carbon economy discussed in the second episode of the Infrastructure miniseries
• Key areas of investment include electrification, renewable power plants, electric vehicle charging stations, and clean fuels
• Importance of public and private investment in infrastructure to enable energy transition and decarbonization, with a focus on long-term growth opportunities like data centers and mining infrastructure

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

4. NPS: Portfolio Rebalance Could Lead to Buying At Least 25 Trillion Won in Korean Stocks in 2025

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• In 2025, the NPS could purchase significant amounts of Korean stocks (at least 25 trillion won) which could act as support in the domestic stock market. 
• At the end of September 2024, NPS’s domestic stock portfolio was 12.7% of its total assets, a 2.2% lower than NPS’s domestic stocks target at the end of 2025 (14.9%).
• The top five net purchases by the NPS and local pension funds of Korean stocks in the past one month include Samsung Electronics, Kakao, SK Innovation, Hyundai Motor, and SEMCO.

5. Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

By Said Desaque, DeSaque Macro Research

• The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.
• The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.
• The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.

6. Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

• Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.
• It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.
• Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.

7. The Darker Side of the Hindenburg Omen

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• Current market conditions are characterized by a strong S&P 500 that’s near its all-time high and weak breadth. 
• The closest template to these circumstances is August 1972, which is just before the final Nifty Fifty top.
• As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences, which could be the signal for a long-term cyclical top.

8. Equity Return Expectations Under An Alien Invasion

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

• We are subscribers to Occam’s Razor, or the simplest explanation is the most satisfactory, and recent UFOs sightings are of terrestrial origin.
• It’s nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to consider asset return expectations under the scenario of an extra-terrestrial alien invasion.
• Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums are useful only up to a point.

9. Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

• Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
• These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
• While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

10. Three Presidents in One Month in South Korea – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• The acting South Korean President Han Duck-Soo was impeached by the South Korea’s Parliament on 27 December. Choi Sang-Mok (finance minister) is now the new, acting President of South Korea.
• There could be multiple impeachments of acting Presidents in the next several weeks which would be unprecedented and raise further concerns about the lack of political stability in South Korea. 
• Amid all this political uncertainty, Yoon Suk-Yeol’s approval rating has been improving sharply to more than 30%.