Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 22, 2026

1. Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook After Positive Earnings Results

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• On March 18 Tencent (700 HK) reported Q4 2025 revenue of RMB 194.4B (+13 YoY), and non-IFRS net profit of RMB 64.7B (+17 YoY), operating margin up,strong free cash flow. 
• The stock has rebounded from its low at 498.80 2 weeks ago, after a severe downtrend, this is its third week up, reached 550.5 on Wednesday.
• This insight presents to Smartkarma readers new advanced algorithmic models we have developed to analyze and predict stock movements, check it out.

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2. GOLD Tactical Outlook: Model-Driven Long Bias Initiated

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Futures (GC Apr26) have been correcting for 2 weeks in a row, this is the 3rd consecutive weeks down. Our model just issued a LONG signal.
• The correction so far has been relatively mild from a price perspective, according to our model, classified as ‘buy the dip’. But it is lasting longer than expected: 3 weeks.
• If Gold (GOLD COMDTY) starts to rally this week, it could trend up to 5.5k in the next 2-4 weeks.

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3. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Assessing Current Trend Acceleration and Momentum Sustainability

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• As you know, lately we have maintained a constructive view on  BYD (1211 HK) identifying a potential bottoming process. Recent price action is supported by a significant new fundamental catalyst.
• BYD shares surged ~8% on March 16, 2026, following news that its Brazil plant (Camaçari) secured 100,000 export orders from Argentina and Mexico.
• This insight utilizes our proprietary model to quantify the extent of the current price extension and evaluate if the current trajectory supports further appreciation before a tactical consolidation.

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4. Alibaba (9988.HK) Earnings Preview: Historical Reactions Suggest Upside to Implied Move

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Alibaba reports this week with the options market implying a more moderate move relative to recent earnings reactions. This Insight reviews the volatility backdrop, historical earnings reactions, and post-earnings trends.
• Recent earnings history highlights a pattern of larger-than-expected moves despite a typically benign seasonal quarter
• Post-Earnings performance shows a tendency for directional follow-through beyond the initial reaction.

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5. Tencent (700.HK) Earnings Preview: Volatility Backdrop, Implied Jump and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Tencent reports shortly with options implying a moderate move. This Insight reviews the volatility backdrop, historical earnings reactions, and recent price behavior ahead of the release.
• Implied volatility has risen alongside recent stock weakness, but broader historical comparisons suggest the implied jump is not particularly stretched.
• Q4 is notable for the direction of earnings day moves as well as the magnitude of the average absolute price change.

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6. Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Tactical Outlook At March Rebalance

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The scheduled VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) index rebalance at today’s US close may be the immediate catalyst for potential terminal selling or a “flush-out” event.
• We have analyzed recovery targets from the current 80.85 anchor, noting the P50 (85.6) as the primary mean-reversion objective.
• The current price (80.85) is an extreme outlier, trading significantly below the MAX limit that was set by our model at 93.26. Gold is VERY oversold.

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7. Oil: Price and Volatility Shock Create High Probability Setups

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• A sharp volatility surge in Oil creates a compelling backdrop for evaluating risk management and trading opportunities across energy and broader equity markets.
• If prior ranges reflected normal conditions, the current environment may justify a reassessment of what constitutes fair value for Oil going forward.
• We outline how prices may evolve from here and build trade structures aligned with those expectations.

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8. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Mar 16–20): Call Volumes Elevated Ahead Of Busy Earnings Week

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• A mixed week for HSI saw early strength fade following weak earnings reactions and broader market weakness.
• Single stock option activity picked up, with a notable shift toward Calls suggesting changing positioning into upcoming catalysts.
• Sector-Level activity showed concentration in Technology and Materials, driven by names approaching key earnings releases.

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