Category

India

Brief India: Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth
  2. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)

1. Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth

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During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase.  This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.

2. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)

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With our Post Card Series, our aim is to bring on-ground realities & perspectives from cities across India. Our meetings are specifically set up with Small and Medium Scale Enterprises to understand the structural changes happening in their Industry. In this visit to Bangalore, we focus on the real estate sector and developer financing issues. In this Insight, we bring you highlights of our interactions with local entrepreneurs, IT Professionals, real estate brokers and developers to understand the state of consumption in the city, the primary drivers impacting real estate demand, and the current funding scenario for real estate developers.  

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows
  2. Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside
  3. Havells India
  4. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
  5. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

1. Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows

Fidchart

The rapidly improving outlook in the LNG industry over the last few years, reinforced towards the end of 2017 by the unexpected growth of demand from China, has set off a proliferation of new LNG projects especially from the US (Exhibit 1).

In its latest LNG Outlook report, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) is projecting from 2023 onwards a significant gap between the future LNG demand and the existing supply including the capacity under construction that could require up to 100mtpa of new LNG project sanctions by 2023.

The race to gain market share in the projected LNG demand-supply gap has produced an aggregated capacity of proposed new projects of up to 475mtpa, a number larger than the total LNG traded volume in 2018 of 319mtpa and way above the capacity required to meet the future growth in LNG demand.

Exhibit 1: Funnel of proposed LNG projects getting bigger

Source: Energy Market Square, interpretation of data from Shell LNG Outlook 2019, public filings. Higher probability rating depending on oil majors backing, level of offtake agreements, positive news flow catalysts (e.g. regulatory approval, equity financing, EPC agreements). Demand projection assumes 90% capacity utilization. Bubble size proportional to project capacity.  The position of the bubbles within the probability ranges is random.

2. Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside

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We like Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) ’ track record of growing revenue/patient despite competition, premium pricing and strong margin defence. Margins have however, come under some pressure in 9MFY19. Its patient growth lags that of Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN)’s despite rapid network expansion. It is also at the highest risk from any government instituted pricing cap on pathology tests owing to (1) high share of institutional business and (2) premium pricing. Also, 51.6% of promoter stake will be pledged with lenders after the IPO. At the upper end of its price band, Metropolis is valued at 20.9x FY20F EV/EBITDA and 33.3x FY20F PE- at ~15% discount to Dr Lal. We see EPS compounding at 12% Cagr over FY18-21, lower than the 16% EPS Cagr of Dr Lal’s. We feel valuation leaves limited upside.

3. Havells India

Ifb

As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity.  Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its’ consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters.  At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.

4. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!

Capture

This is the concluding part of our Housing Finance Companies (HFC) series where we elaborated the outlook of the mortgage industry in India along with initiating coverage on the best HFCs who we believe may continue to be the key beneficiaries of a long term secular growth in the Indian mortgage industry. (please click here, here and here ).

In this report we cover  Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) , the third largest HFC in the country. The company is among the fastest growing HFCs whose loan portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last 5 years ending FY18. And in spite of robust growth, the asset quality has remained steady.

Due to a strong track record of high capital adequacy, high liquidity coverage, high asset quality, improving operational efficiency and high return ratios, the company was recently awarded AAA rating by ICRA and CRISIL, the top 2 credit rating agencies in India.

From the parameters that are analyzed in detail in this report, we believe that the company in the long term has the potential to be in the league of HDFC Ltd., a benchmark in terms of corporate governance, robust asset management and wealth creation for shareholders.

5. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

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Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.

In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Post Card from Bengaluru (India) and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)

1. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)

Pel%20re%20loan%20book

With our Post Card Series, our aim is to bring on-ground realities & perspectives from cities across India. Our meetings are specifically set up with Small and Medium Scale Enterprises to understand the structural changes happening in their Industry. In this visit to Bangalore, we focus on the real estate sector and developer financing issues. In this Insight, we bring you highlights of our interactions with local entrepreneurs, IT Professionals, real estate brokers and developers to understand the state of consumption in the city, the primary drivers impacting real estate demand, and the current funding scenario for real estate developers.  

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Post Card from Bengaluru (India) and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)
  2. Dhanlaxmi Bank- Free from the PCA Stranglehold

1. Post Card from Bengaluru (India)

Pel%20re%20loan%20book

With our Post Card Series, our aim is to bring on-ground realities & perspectives from cities across India. Our meetings are specifically set up with Small and Medium Scale Enterprises to understand the structural changes happening in their Industry. In this visit to Bangalore, we focus on the real estate sector and developer financing issues. In this Insight, we bring you highlights of our interactions with local entrepreneurs, IT Professionals, real estate brokers and developers to understand the state of consumption in the city, the primary drivers impacting real estate demand, and the current funding scenario for real estate developers.  

2. Dhanlaxmi Bank- Free from the PCA Stranglehold

Cost%20to%20income

Dhanlaxmi Bank (DHLBK IN) share price has surged by 10% today on the back of RBI move to take it out of Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) following improvement in its financial ratios. We have mentioned in our earlier reports (please click here, here and here) about the helplessness of the bank as it couldn’t lend due to restrictions from RBI.

Now as the grip is loosened, Dhanlaxmi can resume lending activities and improve its financial ratios without adding any new capital in the near term.

We analyze the implications post PCA through this report.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside
  2. Havells India
  3. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
  4. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
  5. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

1. Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside

2%203

We like Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) ’ track record of growing revenue/patient despite competition, premium pricing and strong margin defence. Margins have however, come under some pressure in 9MFY19. Its patient growth lags that of Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN)’s despite rapid network expansion. It is also at the highest risk from any government instituted pricing cap on pathology tests owing to (1) high share of institutional business and (2) premium pricing. Also, 51.6% of promoter stake will be pledged with lenders after the IPO. At the upper end of its price band, Metropolis is valued at 20.9x FY20F EV/EBITDA and 33.3x FY20F PE- at ~15% discount to Dr Lal. We see EPS compounding at 12% Cagr over FY18-21, lower than the 16% EPS Cagr of Dr Lal’s. We feel valuation leaves limited upside.

2. Havells India

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As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity.  Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its’ consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters.  At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.

3. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!

Gross%20npa

This is the concluding part of our Housing Finance Companies (HFC) series where we elaborated the outlook of the mortgage industry in India along with initiating coverage on the best HFCs who we believe may continue to be the key beneficiaries of a long term secular growth in the Indian mortgage industry. (please click here, here and here ).

In this report we cover  Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) , the third largest HFC in the country. The company is among the fastest growing HFCs whose loan portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last 5 years ending FY18. And in spite of robust growth, the asset quality has remained steady.

Due to a strong track record of high capital adequacy, high liquidity coverage, high asset quality, improving operational efficiency and high return ratios, the company was recently awarded AAA rating by ICRA and CRISIL, the top 2 credit rating agencies in India.

From the parameters that are analyzed in detail in this report, we believe that the company in the long term has the potential to be in the league of HDFC Ltd., a benchmark in terms of corporate governance, robust asset management and wealth creation for shareholders.

4. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

Dr%20lal%20pathlabs

Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.

In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.

5. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

  • The dollar IS the story
  • EUR punished for negative yields
  • Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
  • Gold confounds
  • Bitcoin at an interesting juncture

The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Havells India and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Havells India
  2. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
  3. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
  4. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
  5. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

1. Havells India

Ifb

As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity.  Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its’ consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters.  At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.

2. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!

Capture

This is the concluding part of our Housing Finance Companies (HFC) series where we elaborated the outlook of the mortgage industry in India along with initiating coverage on the best HFCs who we believe may continue to be the key beneficiaries of a long term secular growth in the Indian mortgage industry. (please click here, here and here ).

In this report we cover  Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) , the third largest HFC in the country. The company is among the fastest growing HFCs whose loan portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last 5 years ending FY18. And in spite of robust growth, the asset quality has remained steady.

Due to a strong track record of high capital adequacy, high liquidity coverage, high asset quality, improving operational efficiency and high return ratios, the company was recently awarded AAA rating by ICRA and CRISIL, the top 2 credit rating agencies in India.

From the parameters that are analyzed in detail in this report, we believe that the company in the long term has the potential to be in the league of HDFC Ltd., a benchmark in terms of corporate governance, robust asset management and wealth creation for shareholders.

3. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

Shareholder%20agreement%20to%20buy%20more%20shares

Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.

In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.

4. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

  • The dollar IS the story
  • EUR punished for negative yields
  • Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
  • Gold confounds
  • Bitcoin at an interesting juncture

The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.

5. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

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In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.

This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.

Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Dhanlaxmi Bank- Free from the PCA Stranglehold and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Dhanlaxmi Bank- Free from the PCA Stranglehold

1. Dhanlaxmi Bank- Free from the PCA Stranglehold

Cost%20to%20income

Dhanlaxmi Bank (DHLBK IN) share price has surged by 10% today on the back of RBI move to take it out of Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) following improvement in its financial ratios. We have mentioned in our earlier reports (please click here, here and here) about the helplessness of the bank as it couldn’t lend due to restrictions from RBI.

Now as the grip is loosened, Dhanlaxmi can resume lending activities and improve its financial ratios without adding any new capital in the near term.

We analyze the implications post PCA through this report.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!! and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
  2. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
  3. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
  4. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow
  5. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note

1. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!

Leverage

This is the concluding part of our Housing Finance Companies (HFC) series where we elaborated the outlook of the mortgage industry in India along with initiating coverage on the best HFCs who we believe may continue to be the key beneficiaries of a long term secular growth in the Indian mortgage industry. (please click here, here and here ).

In this report we cover  Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) , the third largest HFC in the country. The company is among the fastest growing HFCs whose loan portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last 5 years ending FY18. And in spite of robust growth, the asset quality has remained steady.

Due to a strong track record of high capital adequacy, high liquidity coverage, high asset quality, improving operational efficiency and high return ratios, the company was recently awarded AAA rating by ICRA and CRISIL, the top 2 credit rating agencies in India.

From the parameters that are analyzed in detail in this report, we believe that the company in the long term has the potential to be in the league of HDFC Ltd., a benchmark in terms of corporate governance, robust asset management and wealth creation for shareholders.

2. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

Share%20pledge%20details

Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.

In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.

3. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

  • The dollar IS the story
  • EUR punished for negative yields
  • Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
  • Gold confounds
  • Bitcoin at an interesting juncture

The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.

4. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

Chart%202%20 %20country

In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.

This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.

Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.

5. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note

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On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun to incorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.

Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service.  If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother? Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.

In the detailed note below we

  • discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods –  that are associated with carbon emissions. 
  • analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
  • highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
  • present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC. 

However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Beware that looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.  

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief India: Cupid Ltd: Attractive Valuation Post Significant Correction and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Cupid Ltd: Attractive Valuation Post Significant Correction
  2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact
  3. US Lake Charles LNG Liquefaction Plant Tendering for Contractors: Positive for TechnipFMC
  4. Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump
  5. RRG Weekly – Fed Highlights Headwinds – Greece Greases Growth – Thai Election Sun Too Close to Call

1. Cupid Ltd: Attractive Valuation Post Significant Correction

Cupid%20margins

Cupid Ltd one of the largest manufacturers of condoms in India 9MFY19 revenue was largely as per our expectations, as there was some order slippages. As forecasted in our initiation report Cupid Ltd: Protecting the Needy, the company reported a 20% decline in revenue at Rs 505mn, which also resulted in lower profitability both at the operating as well as net level. EBITDA stood at INR 161.6 mn declining by 32.53% with EBITDA margin at 31.95%. PAT was INR 108.5 mn declining by 24.58% with PAT margin at 21.46%.

Despite this below-par performance in the 9MFY19, we are fairly positive on the future growth prospects of the company. As of March 2019, it has a healthy order book of INR 1300 m with Book to Bill ratio of  1.99 times on its TTM sales. We expect revenues to grow at 15% over FY18-19 and margins to improve in medium to long term horizon.

Having corrected by 67% from its peak, the stock currently trades at 10.20x its FY19 EPS and 8.34x its FY20 EPS; we believe that this provides a good entry point for this niche high margin healthcare company with attractive long term growth possibilities.

2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

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Market activity, both bonds and stocks, has been all about realigning expectations. Wednesday’s Fed announcement was more dovish than expected, and the market is now pricing in roughly 25bps of cuts by the end of 2019. Stocks reacted positively on Thursday, but then reversed (and then some) on Friday as global growth concerns became a little more serious. We continue to maintain our positive outlook. In today’s report we recap our bullish investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Materials, and Services.

3. US Lake Charles LNG Liquefaction Plant Tendering for Contractors: Positive for TechnipFMC

Lake%20charles

Energy Transfer LP (ET US) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) have signed a Project Framework Agreement to further develop a large-scale LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana and move toward a potential final investment decision (FID). They have started actively engaging with LNG Engineering, Procurement and Contracting (EPC) companies with a plan to issue an Invitation to Tender (ITT) in the weeks ahead. We look at the potential contract size and winners and also the other US LNG projects that could be negatively impacted. More detail on the LNG project queue for this year in: A Huge Wave of New LNG Projects Coming in the Next 18 Months: Positive for The E&C Companies.

4. Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump

  • The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.
  • The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.
  • Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.
  • US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.
  • Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.
  • Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.
  • Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.
  • Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.

5. RRG Weekly – Fed Highlights Headwinds – Greece Greases Growth – Thai Election Sun Too Close to Call

  • US: Fed Sees Tailwinds from Global Growth Shifting to Headwinds from China and Europe.
  • Greece: Growth supported by ‘Golden Visa’ (5-year visa for investing 250,000 Euro) and strong tourism arrivals. 2.3% GDP in 2020.
  • Thailand: Sunday election between Shinawatra-linked Pheu Thai Party and military backed Palang Pracharat Party. Too close to call.
  • Brazil: Former Brazilian President Michel Temer has been arrested in São Paulo as part of the Car Wash corruption investigation. Brazil stocks fell on the news.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

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Brief India: Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best and more

By | India

In this briefing:

  1. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
  2. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
  3. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow
  4. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note
  5. India Consumption: More Signs of a Widening Slowdown

1. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best

Financials

Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.

In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.

2. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

  • The dollar IS the story
  • EUR punished for negative yields
  • Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
  • Gold confounds
  • Bitcoin at an interesting juncture

The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.

3. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

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In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.

This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.

Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.

4. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note

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On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun to incorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.

Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service.  If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother? Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.

In the detailed note below we

  • discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods –  that are associated with carbon emissions. 
  • analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
  • highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
  • present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC. 

However, the report does NOT discuss potential risks to businesses from the aftermath of Climate change. Unlike our recently released report Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Beware that looked into sector’s environmental violations and attempted to estimate potential earnings/growth/valuation downside as leading textile players adopt sustainable practices, we believe the impact of unpredictable climate change poses a threat that is not easy to identify or quantify.  

5. India Consumption: More Signs of a Widening Slowdown

  • Bank lending to NBFCs has been flat since Oct-18 after rising by ~ Rs 1 tn in the previous 5-month period. Debt mutual fund holdings in NBFCs have declined 20% over Sep-18 to Feb-19. CP issuances by NBFCs have also fallen to a fraction of the size before IL&FS defaulted.
  • This is percolating through the economy slowing down the flow of overall credit.
  • 2-W channel inventories are nearly twice the normal level for some players
  • M&HCV production has been cut 20-25% YoY in 4QFY19
  • Tractor volume growth is likely to be in single digits in FY20
  • Air conditioner and refrigerators are seeing steep discounting owing to large inventory build-up on delayed summer
  • FMCG players indicate both rural and urban demand weakness including in the modern retail segment

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