Category

Indonesia

Jun 05
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported a solid Q1 FY25 despite the drop in coal prices. Revenues/profits were -1%/+8%YoY because of higher volumes and lower costs. 
  • After accounting for the 150 million USD dividend liability (which was already paid out in May), net cash is>850 million USD (around 54% of market capitalization). 
  • With earnings likely to be between 250-300 million USD in FY25, the stock trades at 5.3- 6.25x FY25 PE and 12.5% dividend yield. 

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Jun 04
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
  • The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
  • We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms

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May 23
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Pakuwon Jati and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Outperforming with Essentials
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Outperforming with Essentials

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. 
  • The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. 
  • Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Pakuwon Jati
  • The UST curve bear steepened aggressively yesterday, driven by a soft auction of 20Y notes amid concerns over the US Budget deficit. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.02%, while that on the 10Y UST jumped 11 bps to 4.60%.
  • Moreover, the yield on the 30Y UST climbed 12 bps to 5.09%, the highest since October 2023. Equities retreated on concerns over the US’ safe-haven status. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 5,845, while the Nasdaq declined 1.4% to 18,873.

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May 21
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi

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May 17
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Pertamina (Persero) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Pertamina (Persero)
  • In the US, retail sales eased to 0.1% m-o-m (0.0% e / 1.7% revised p) in April, driven by lower car sales (after a front-loaded surge in March), as well as declines in several categories of imported items including sporting goods and apparel.
  • This was offset by higher spending at restaurants and bars, which accelerated for a second month.

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May 15
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Aneka Tambang Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • ANTAM (IDX: ANTM): Operational Momentum, Expansion Ahead, Valuation Still Attractive

ANTAM (IDX: ANTM): Operational Momentum, Expansion Ahead, Valuation Still Attractive

By Rahul Jain

  • ANTAM’s Q1 2025 EBITDA surged over 250% YoY, supported by strong gold and nickel sales and improved cost efficiencies.
  • Plans include new RKEF and HPAL plants in East Halmahera, targeting growth in battery-grade nickel output.
  • Despite a recent rally, ANTAM trades at just 7x forward P/E—well below regional peers—while its strong cash balance of IDR 462 per share offers downside support, stock is attractively valued.

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May 14
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The staged development of gas discoveries at Tungkal is the primary driver of near-term growth.
  • Assuming flat oil production, bringing just two gas discoveries online could enable Criterium to triple output to ~3 mboe/d and triple 2P reserves by early 2027 • The first discovery to be developed, SE MGH (15 bcf 2C resources), is expected to see resource conversion to reserves in 2025.
  • In early 3Q25, the existing well—previously tested at 8 mmcf/d—will be re-tested, with initial production of 5-7 mmcf/d anticipated by 1Q26.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Slow Start to Q1 FY25

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Slow Start to Q1 FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) reported Q1 2025 revenues/profits of +1.9%/-4.9% YoY. The company attributes its lackluster quarter to weakness in the mainstream/premium and non-alcoholic segments. 
  • Operating margins declined 210 bps YoY to 36.2% due to an increase in SG&A by 60 bps and a decline in gross profit margins by 150 bps (to 57.8%). 
  • We believe that the company will be able to pay 600/Rph of dividends in FY24, implying ~9% dividend yield. Trading at 11x PE FY24, we still find this idea compelling.

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May 08
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Medco Energi

Medco Energi

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 ’26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375 ’27s.
  • It is also concurrently seeking to issue new USD 400 mn 5NC2 notes.
  • In our view, the proposed transactions demonstrate Medco’s proactive management of its debt maturity profile.

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Pakuwon Jati and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: International Container, Pakuwon Jati
  • In the US, the April ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.6 (50.2 e / 50.8 p). The new orders component expanded to 52.3 (50.3 e / 50.4 p), while employment increased to 49.0 (47.1 e / 46.2 p).
  • The prices paid component jumped to 65.1 (61.4 e / 60.9 p), the highest level since 2022. Separately, the April (final) S&P services PMI declined to 50.8 (51.2 e / 54.4 p), below the preliminary reading of 51.4. The composite PMI fell to 50.6 (53.5 p).

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