ECM

In this briefing:

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent
2. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)
3. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth. 

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

2. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)

CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation. 

As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.

3. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn. 

In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India: 

• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish, and
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.

In this briefing:

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent
2. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)
3. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
4. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth. 

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

2. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)

CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation. 

As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.

3. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn. 

In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India: 

• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish, and
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.

4. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.

In this briefing:

1. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO: Palatable at the Low-End IPO Price Range
2. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: No Reason for a Valuation Premium
3. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel
4. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky
5. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

1. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO: Palatable at the Low-End IPO Price Range

Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (1707387D HK) seeks to raise IPO proceeds of $1.16-1.25 billion, which is down from its early indication of a $1.5 billion raise. The IPO was launched with 13 cornerstone investors representing 69% of the deal, at the mid-point of the IPO price range.

2. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: No Reason for a Valuation Premium

Shenwan Hongyuan started institutional book building today. We have covered the fundamentals of the company in our previous insight (Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business). In this insight, we will discuss:

• Valuation comparison with peers
• A-H premium history of Chinese brokers
• Key metrics of past Chinese brokers listing in the H-share market
• Concerns of liquidity

3. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel

So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.

The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.

4. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky

Khazanah plans to raise around US$260m via selling 85m share in Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK). We have covered three such placements since 2015 and most have ended up doing ok, if not well. 

• US$440m in 2015: Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) – Take the deal, strong earnings growth likely to continue
• US$290m in 2016: Tenaga Nasional Placement – Strong Track Record and a Potential Dividend Increase
• US$115m in 2017: Tenaga Nasional Placement – A Small Deal Size Relative to Previous Sell Down

Out of the three previous placement, Khazanah was the seller for the first two (2015 and 2016). Hence, this deal is unlikely to be a huge surprise. However, the stocks recent performance hasn’t been great and the replacement of the CEO seems to have raised more questions than it answers. 

5. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

In this briefing:

1. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)
2. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
3. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

1. CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)

CanSino is a China-based biotechnology company with a focus on vaccine development. In our previous insight (link to Part 1 and Part 2), we have discussed CanSino’s drug pipeline, the competitive landscape, and the valuation. 

As the company is starting pre-marketing, we will provide an updated valuation based on new information obtained from the approved application document. Our base case valuation for CanSino is USD 856 million on a pre-money basis. Majority of the rNPV based SOTP valuation still comes from its meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV2 and MCV4). Over the past few months, the company has completed Phase III for MCV4 and submitted NDA (new drug application) for MCV2 candidates.

2. Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$680m in its India IPO. Of this, it has already raised around US$125m from Capital Group, who came in as a strategic investor. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of around US$4.5bn. 

In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth and compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India: 

• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish, and
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

In this insight, I’ll cover the deal dynamics, compare the revised forecast in the RHP with the earlier one from the DRHP, comment on the yield boost from the zero coupon debt and run the deal through our framework.

3. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.

In this briefing:

1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: No Reason for a Valuation Premium
2. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel
3. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky
4. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
5. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: No Reason for a Valuation Premium

Shenwan Hongyuan started institutional book building today. We have covered the fundamentals of the company in our previous insight (Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business). In this insight, we will discuss:

• Valuation comparison with peers
• A-H premium history of Chinese brokers
• Key metrics of past Chinese brokers listing in the H-share market
• Concerns of liquidity

2. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel

So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.

The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.

3. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky

Khazanah plans to raise around US$260m via selling 85m share in Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK). We have covered three such placements since 2015 and most have ended up doing ok, if not well. 

• US$440m in 2015: Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) – Take the deal, strong earnings growth likely to continue
• US$290m in 2016: Tenaga Nasional Placement – Strong Track Record and a Potential Dividend Increase
• US$115m in 2017: Tenaga Nasional Placement – A Small Deal Size Relative to Previous Sell Down

Out of the three previous placement, Khazanah was the seller for the first two (2015 and 2016). Hence, this deal is unlikely to be a huge surprise. However, the stocks recent performance hasn’t been great and the replacement of the CEO seems to have raised more questions than it answers. 

4. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

5. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.

In this briefing:

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.

In this briefing:

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long
2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.

2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is looking to raise approximately US$300 – 500m in its upcoming IPO. 

DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.

However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.

In this briefing:

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long
2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth
3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either

1. Ruhnn IPO Preview: Hard to Stay Red-Hot for Long

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is an e-commerce platform which drives sales through KOLs (key opinion leaders). Ruhnn is the largest internet KOL facilitator in China as measured by revenue, the number of online stores and GMV in 2018 according to Frost & Sullivan. Ruhnn is backed by Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), an 8.6% shareholder, and is seeking to raise $200 million through a Nasdaq IPO.

2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is looking to raise approximately US$300 – 500m in its upcoming IPO. 

DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.

However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.

3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$91m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

In my earlier insights, I commented about Tiger’s reliance on IBKR and compared its operations with Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US):

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our framework and comment on valuations.

In this briefing:

1. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky
2. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
3. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance
4. Guotai Junan Securities Placement Quick Take – Might Be Too Big to Sail
5. Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry

1. Tenaga Nasional Placement – Past Deals Have Done Ok but This One Might Not Be as Lucky

Khazanah plans to raise around US$260m via selling 85m share in Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK). We have covered three such placements since 2015 and most have ended up doing ok, if not well. 

• US$440m in 2015: Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) – Take the deal, strong earnings growth likely to continue
• US$290m in 2016: Tenaga Nasional Placement – Strong Track Record and a Potential Dividend Increase
• US$115m in 2017: Tenaga Nasional Placement – A Small Deal Size Relative to Previous Sell Down

Out of the three previous placement, Khazanah was the seller for the first two (2015 and 2016). Hence, this deal is unlikely to be a huge surprise. However, the stocks recent performance hasn’t been great and the replacement of the CEO seems to have raised more questions than it answers. 

2. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

3. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.

4. Guotai Junan Securities Placement Quick Take – Might Be Too Big to Sail

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK) plans to raise around US$350m via placing new H-Shares. We had earlier covered the IPO, you can find our coverage below:

• Guotai Junan Securities IPO: Second, if Not the Largest, China Security Broker, A-H Premium Examined
• Guotai Junan IPO: A Big Player but Relatively Less Liquid, How A-H Premium Plays

This is a large deal to digest and the shares seem to be trading at a relatively tighter A-H spread versus peers.

5. Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry

Studio City, a spin-off by MLCO US, was listed on October 18th, 2018 and its lock-up will expire next week on April 16th. The company raised USD 359 million in its IPO with the majority of the shares taken up by its shareholders.

In this insight, we will review the company’s operation, shares subject to lock-up expiry and its valuation vs peers. 

Our previous insights on Studio City

• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: A Melco Spin-Off Turning Profitable
• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: Attractive Valuation with Options for Long-Term Upside (Part 2)
• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO Trading Update: Performance Within Expectations, Near-Term Upside Capped

In this briefing:

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth
2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is looking to raise approximately US$300 – 500m in its upcoming IPO. 

DAF is a fast growing auto finance company which acquires customers through a network of dealership around China. Its net interest income grew by 66% CAGR from FY2016 to FY2018 while net fees/comms income and profit grew by 39.6% and 61% CAGR over the same period.

However, most of its growth originated from ZhengTong dealers and joint promotion arrangement. Excluding loans from joint promotion arrangement, gross outstanding loan had only grown by 12% CAGR.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business, analyze the competitive landscape, provide thoughts on valuation, and some questions for management.

2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$91m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

In my earlier insights, I commented about Tiger’s reliance on IBKR and compared its operations with Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US):

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our framework and comment on valuations.