ECM

In this briefing:

1. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
2. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
3. Lyft IPO Preview
4. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
5. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

1. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

2. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

3. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

4. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

5. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

In this briefing:

1. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
2. Lyft IPO Preview
3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
4. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
5. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

1. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

2. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

4. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

5. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

In this briefing:

1. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?
2. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
5. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

1. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

2. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above. 

5. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise up to US$130m in its US listing. 

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance and scored the deal on our IPO framework.: 

• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, 
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, and
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End 

In this insight, I do a quick comparison of Futu versus Up Fintech (TIGR US) (aka Tiger Brokers) who is regarded as Futu’s main competitor in the space.

In this briefing:

1. Lyft IPO Preview
2. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
3. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
4. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
5. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

1. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

2. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

3. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

4. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

5. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

In this briefing:

1. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
2. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
3. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
4. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
5. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

1. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

2. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

3. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

4. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

5. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

In this briefing:

1. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
2. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
3. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
4. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?
5. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

1. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

2. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

3. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

4. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

5. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

In this briefing:

1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
2. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
3. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?
4. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
5. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

2. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

3. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

4. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

5. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

In this briefing:

1. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
2. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?
3. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
4. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

1. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

2. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

3. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

4. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

5. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above. 

In this briefing:

1. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
2. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
4. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
5. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle

1. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

2. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above. 

4. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise up to US$130m in its US listing. 

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance and scored the deal on our IPO framework.: 

• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, 
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, and
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End 

In this insight, I do a quick comparison of Futu versus Up Fintech (TIGR US) (aka Tiger Brokers) who is regarded as Futu’s main competitor in the space.

5. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle

China Risun, a leading coking coal refining player in China, is seeking up to USD 243 million via a listing in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• Company’s business and the value chain of coking coal
• Industry backdrop of the coking coal processing industry in China
• Shareholders and investors
• Thoughts on valuation

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
3. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
4. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
5. Dexin China (德信中国) Post IPO – Poor Trading Liquidity, Top Ten Placees Hold 76% of IPO Shares

1. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

2. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above. 

3. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise up to US$130m in its US listing. 

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance and scored the deal on our IPO framework.: 

• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, 
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, and
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End 

In this insight, I do a quick comparison of Futu versus Up Fintech (TIGR US) (aka Tiger Brokers) who is regarded as Futu’s main competitor in the space.

4. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle

China Risun, a leading coking coal refining player in China, is seeking up to USD 243 million via a listing in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• Company’s business and the value chain of coking coal
• Industry backdrop of the coking coal processing industry in China
• Shareholders and investors
• Thoughts on valuation

5. Dexin China (德信中国) Post IPO – Poor Trading Liquidity, Top Ten Placees Hold 76% of IPO Shares

Dexin China Holdings (2019 HK) raised US$189m in at HK$2.80 per share, at the mid-point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

• Dexin China (德信中国) Pre-IPO – Related Party Transactions and Partial Asset Listing
• Dexin China (德信中国) IPO Review – Key Issues Remain but 9M Results Showed Strong Growth.

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.