Brief Growth Ideas: Quick Read of 2019 Government Work Report – Bulls and Bears and more

In this briefing:

1. Quick Read of 2019 Government Work Report – Bulls and Bears
2. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)
3. Lyft IPO Preview
4. Alps Alpine Buyback Proceeding Apace

1. Quick Read of 2019 Government Work Report – Bulls and Bears

The Premier Li Keqiang had just conducted an annual Government Work Report in the two session conference (两会) in Beijing this morning. In this insight, we will briefly walk through key points of his report and identify bulls and bears in the market.

While the theme of cost reduction benefits manufacturing companies, it will negative for some infrastructure service providers, such as telecom companies.

The full text in Chinese can be accessed here.

2. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)

In our Discover SZ/SH Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of northbound trades via the Shanghai Connect and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by offshore investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the northbound trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion.

We note that offshore investors were buying all GICS sectors, and had a strong preference for Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials names. We estimate that total inflow into the A-share market via northbound trade amounted to USD 8.4 bn in February.

3. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

4. Alps Alpine Buyback Proceeding Apace

Late last year, in the final run-up to the vote to determine whether Alpine (6816 JP) investors would subject themselves to a bad share exchange ratio or would choose to oblige Alps (6770 JP) to have another run at it in a different format, Alps announced a shareholder return policy which included buying back ¥40 billion of shares. 

It is to be noted that this meant that the combined entity was going to be left with less cash than the total deemed necessary by the two companies just a very short while before. Why? Because Alps – with the strong governance it has – obviously had the right amount – and Alpine also had the right amount (it needed substantial equity-funded cash as “working capital” because otherwise it would run a serious danger of business disruption and deterioration. So despite this severe business risk, the two companies effectively announced they would disburse 90% of Alpine’s cash on hand to shareholders POST-MERGER through the special dividend offered to sweeten the pot to get the merger through, and the ¥40 billion buyback. 

The merger, of course, went through, and the ¥28.4 billion* buyback is proceeding apace.