Brief Growth Ideas: Singapore Real Deals (Issue 4): Purpose Built Workers Accommodation, an Alternative Asset Class and more

In this briefing:

1. Singapore Real Deals (Issue 4): Purpose Built Workers Accommodation, an Alternative Asset Class
2. Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) – Transport Wizzard with a Twist – On the Ground in J-Town
3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
4. Topcon (7732 JP): Weak 3Q, Likely to Fall Short of FY Mar-19 Guidance

1. Singapore Real Deals (Issue 4): Purpose Built Workers Accommodation, an Alternative Asset Class

Singapore Real Deals is a fortnightly property digest that takes you through the peculiarities of Singapore’s real estate market. In this issue, we examine Singapore’s Purpose Built Workers Accommodation (PBWA) industry landscape in light of the nation’s foreign work force policy.

The number of Work Permit holders in the construction, marine, processing and manufacturing industries has declined in the last three years and we see the government being content to keep the foreign workers quota unchanged for these sectors in Budget 2019. In spite of the continued decline in the foreign workers population amidst a soft patch in those industries, Centurion Corp (CENT SP), a major PBWA operator in Singapore, has identified a huge gap between demand and supply, where demand outstrips supply by 120,000 to 150,000 beds. This shortfall of supply represents a whopping 54% to 67% of existing bed capacity for PBWA. There is no new supply expected in 2019 and we observed that government policies continue to encourage the shift of foreign workers from public housing, on-site dormitories and other non-purpose built accommodation to PBWA.

However, capacity growth for PBWA is limited by land scarcity, high construction cost as well as stricter regulatory standards which increase the operators’ running costs.

Based on Centurion’s results for the financial year ended 2018 (FY2018), its portfolio of four workers accommodation in Singapore is enjoying a healthy average occupancy rate of 96%. Pre-tax profit margin improved from 60% in FY2017 to 62% in FY2018. In light of the heavy regulation in Singapore’s PBWA, the company is expecting stronger growth to come instead from its PBWA business in our neighbouring country, Malaysia. There are about 1.7 million registered legal foreign workers in Malaysia. Half of this number is from manufacturing. The Malaysian government is said to be drafting new laws requiring employers to provide adequate housing for foreign workers. Centurion’s PBWA capacity in Malaysia is forecast to grow 28% in 2019 and a further 20% in 2020 to reach 36,400 beds, while its capacity in Singapore is forecast to remain constant at 26,100 over the next two years. That said, the strong profit margin of its PBWA business in Singapore could still be sustainable due to the demand and supply imbalance and high entry barriers.

Centurion, the only listed operator (dual listing in Singapore and Hong Kong Centurion Corp (6090 HK) ), is believed to be one of the largest operators in Singapore’s S$720-million¹ dollar PBWA industry based on its 10.8% share of industry revenue and 11.7% share of total bed capacity. Investing in Centurion is a cheaper option to profit from running a PBWA compared to being an operator. Besides its core business in PBWA, Centurion operates a growing portfolio of student accommodation in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore and South Korea. 

2. Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) – Transport Wizzard with a Twist – On the Ground in J-Town

A visit in Jakarta to the Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) office was well-timed as the company is close to the conclusion of two corporate actions, as well as an interesting extension to its relationship with Go-Jek Indonesia (1379371D IJ).

Both acquisitions are synergistic with its existing business and represent long-term opportunities rather than an immediate significant boost to earnings.

The company’s underlying fundamentals continue to improve with fleet utilisation up versus last year in 4Q18, as was the average revenue per taxi.

The company continues to see the benefits of its tie-up with Go-Jek, which will soon morph into something even more significant.

Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) remains an interesting way to play the rising levels of affluence amongst the rising middle classes in Indonesia. the company is close to completing two corporate actions including a new venture into the car auction business with Mitsubishi UFJ and the acquisition of an intercity bus company. It is also close to signing an extension and expansion of its relationship with Go-Jek, which will help to cement its position in the online ride-hailing space. Underlying fundamentals continue to improve both in terms of fleet utilisation and average revenue per taxi. According to Capital IQ consensus, the company trades on  14.9x FY19E PER and 13.7x FY20E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +16.2% and +8.9% for FY19E and FY20E respectively. The near-term completion of two corporate actions and an extension of its agreement with Go-Jek Indonesia (1379371D IJ) should provide positive catalysts for the share price coupled with improving ridership, average revenue per taxi, and fleet utilisation.

3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

4. Topcon (7732 JP): Weak 3Q, Likely to Fall Short of FY Mar-19 Guidance

Topcon’s FY Mar-19 guidance looks over-optimistic. Operating profit was up 8.5% year-on-year on a 1.4% increase in sales in the nine months to December, but down 10.1% on a 2.3% decrease in sales in 3Q. To make management’s full-year targets, it would have to increase by 41.0% on a 6.8% increase in sales in 4Q. The sales of all three major product segments – Smart Infrastructure, Positioning and Eye Care – have been slow. Intra-company eliminations have undercut segment profits.

At ¥1,561 (Friday, March 1, close), the shares are selling at 23.6x our EPS estimate for this fiscal year and 9.8x projected EV/EBITDA. These multiples compare with 5-year historical lows of 16.1x and 6.8x. Japan Analytics’ calculation of Annual No-Growth Valuation shows further downside risk (see chart below).