In this briefing:
- Quick Read of 2019 Government Work Report – Bulls and Bears
- Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)
- China – Eurozone Negative Feedback Loop.
- Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
- HK Connect Discovery – February Snapshot (Tencent, COFCO Meat)
1. Quick Read of 2019 Government Work Report – Bulls and Bears
The Premier Li Keqiang had just conducted an annual Government Work Report in the two session conference (两会) in Beijing this morning. In this insight, we will briefly walk through key points of his report and identify bulls and bears in the market.
While the theme of cost reduction benefits manufacturing companies, it will negative for some infrastructure service providers, such as telecom companies.
The full text in Chinese can be accessed here.
2. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)
In our Discover SZ/SH Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of northbound trades via the Shanghai Connect and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by offshore investors in the past seven days.
We split the stocks eligible for the northbound trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion.
We note that offshore investors were buying all GICS sectors, and had a strong preference for Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials names. We estimate that total inflow into the A-share market via northbound trade amounted to USD 8.4 bn in February.
3. China – Eurozone Negative Feedback Loop.
Historically, Germany and China have depended on exports to lead growth. With the US unwilling to play the role of consumer of last resort and being determined to limit its current account deficit, this avenue is not available anymore. In the absence of a rethink by German policy makers as to how to make German growth more self -sustaining a deflationary feedback loop is developing between the EU and China.
4. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:
- Company’s history.
- Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
- Our thoughts on valuation.
5. HK Connect Discovery – February Snapshot (Tencent, COFCO Meat)
This is a monthly version of our HK Connect Weekly note, in which I highlight Hong Kong-listed companies leading the southbound flow weekly. Over the past month, we have seen the outflow continue from January. In February, we have seen Chinese investors were selling Tencent in February after buying Tencent in January. Chinese investors were also buying domestic automotive manufacturers and Macau gaming sectors.
Our February Coverage of Hong Kong Connect southbound flow
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