Category

Hong Kong

Brief Hong Kong: Shenwan Hongyuan IPO: Palatable at the Low-End IPO Price Range and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO: Palatable at the Low-End IPO Price Range
  2. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel
  3. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR
  4. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL
  5. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

1. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO: Palatable at the Low-End IPO Price Range

Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (1707387D HK) seeks to raise IPO proceeds of $1.16-1.25 billion, which is down from its early indication of a $1.5 billion raise. The IPO was launched with 13 cornerstone investors representing 69% of the deal, at the mid-point of the IPO price range.

In our IPO initiation note, we pointed out that Shenwan Hongyuan’s fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out. Based on our relative valuation analysis, we would participate in the IPO at most at the low-end of the proposed IPO range.

2. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel

Margins improved gross margin net margin chartbuilder

So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.

The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.

3. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR

Nav%20ap

Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) has announced PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, its controlling shareholder with 74.52%, has made a voluntary conditional cash offer of $0.28/share for all IFAR shares it does not own. The offer price, which is a 7.7% premium to last close, is not final. Any dividend declared will reduce the consideration under the proposal.

The Offer is conditional on PT Indofood holding 90% of shares out at the close of the offer. There is no other condition.

There is no requirement for a downstream offer for Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP IJ), 73.46% held by IFAR.

IFAR’s share price has increased 27% this month – evidently, there was some news leakage ahead of the announcement – positioning its discount to NAV at ~50%, around its narrowest inside a year, but on a look-through basis, the Offer price backs out just 0.4x P/B.

The Offer price represents a premium of approximately 21.5%, 26.3%, 29.0% and 23.1% over the VWAP for 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. IFAR traded above the Offer price as recent as May last year. One wonders if the consideration is sufficient to achieve the 90% condition. 

4. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL

Sec2

  • Asset Quality recognition is something of a black art with varied definitions for non-performing loans (“NPLs”).
  • Firstly, we analyse what a NPL is.
  • We then evaluate provisioning changes across Asia. We rank countries.
  • We further analyse specific underlying NPL recognition issues in China.
  • We then rank a sample of regional banks and countries by NPL recognition.
  • Later, we take a look at how different systems come under NPL stress and how they cope often in a crisis environment.
  • Finally, we wrap things up with some concluding insights about the cultural backdrop which defines systemic asset quality.

5. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

Nav%20apr%202019

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: Upstream Oil & Gas M&A Review: Surge of Takeovers and Mergers in 2018 – What to Expect in 2019 and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. Upstream Oil & Gas M&A Review: Surge of Takeovers and Mergers in 2018 – What to Expect in 2019
  2. TRADE IDEA – Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb
  3. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite
  4. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

1. Upstream Oil & Gas M&A Review: Surge of Takeovers and Mergers in 2018 – What to Expect in 2019

Sankeymajorswithtitle

The last three years have been characterized by significant M&A activity in the upstream oil and gas industry. As the oil cycle recovered from the price bottom in January 2016, lower asset prices and corporate valuations created opportunities for the companies with a stronger balance sheet to grow inorganically while their weaker competitors were forced to downsize their portfolios. 2018, in particular, has seen a surge of corporate M&A which has been driving consolidation in the industry. This insight examines the trends that have shaped the M&A markets since 2016 with a closer view of 2018 and the outlook for 2019.

Exhibit 1: M&A volume compared to the E&P index and the oil price since 2016

Source: Energy Market Square, Capital IQ. Market value weighted index including independent E&P companies with market value greater than $300m as of 19 April 2018. Data as of 7 March 2019. The M&A volume in September 2018 includes the merger of Wintershall and DEA with an estimated value of $10bn.

2. TRADE IDEA – Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb

Capture4

An old favorite in the Asian arbitrageur’s investment universe is the Hang Lung stub. The Hang Lung Group acquired Hang Lung Properties (formerly named Amoy Properties) and designated the subsidiary as its property investment arm.  After both companies were listed in 1992, the same year that the company entered the mainland with its purchase of the Grand Gateway 66 and Plaza 66 in Shanghai, the pair was open to arbs. The Hang Lung Group now controls over RMB 130 (USD 19.4b) billion of property in Hong Kong and China. 

In the wonderful world of Asian holding companies, Hang Lung needs little introduction. However, in this insight I would like to highlight a trade idea. I will detail why I think now is the right time to setup a stub trade and some background information on the company and what assets constitute the stub. 

In this insight I will cover:

I. The Trade

II. The Stub Assets

III. My Track Record with Stub Trades

3. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite

Fy18

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Wheelock and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

4. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dividend

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel
  2. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR
  3. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL
  4. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House
  5. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

1. So-Young (新氧) Pre-IPO Review – Au Naturel

Fy2018 revenue breakdown rmbm  chartbuilder

So-Young (SY US) is looking to raise US$150m in its upcoming IPO. The company filed its prospectus with the SEC on Monday.

The company operates online platforms (mobile, website, and WeChat mini program) for discovering, evaluating, and reserving medical aesthetic services in China. It helps medical aesthetic service providers acquire customers through user generated content and other creative content format.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial and operating performance, review the competitive landscape and point out some questions for management.

2. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR

Nav%20ap

Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) has announced PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, its controlling shareholder with 74.52%, has made a voluntary conditional cash offer of $0.28/share for all IFAR shares it does not own. The offer price, which is a 7.7% premium to last close, is not final. Any dividend declared will reduce the consideration under the proposal.

The Offer is conditional on PT Indofood holding 90% of shares out at the close of the offer. There is no other condition.

There is no requirement for a downstream offer for Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP IJ), 73.46% held by IFAR.

IFAR’s share price has increased 27% this month – evidently, there was some news leakage ahead of the announcement – positioning its discount to NAV at ~50%, around its narrowest inside a year, but on a look-through basis, the Offer price backs out just 0.4x P/B.

The Offer price represents a premium of approximately 21.5%, 26.3%, 29.0% and 23.1% over the VWAP for 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. IFAR traded above the Offer price as recent as May last year. One wonders if the consideration is sufficient to achieve the 90% condition. 

3. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL

Sec2

  • Asset Quality recognition is something of a black art with varied definitions for non-performing loans (“NPLs”).
  • Firstly, we analyse what a NPL is.
  • We then evaluate provisioning changes across Asia. We rank countries.
  • We further analyse specific underlying NPL recognition issues in China.
  • We then rank a sample of regional banks and countries by NPL recognition.
  • Later, we take a look at how different systems come under NPL stress and how they cope often in a crisis environment.
  • Finally, we wrap things up with some concluding insights about the cultural backdrop which defines systemic asset quality.

4. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

10%20apr%202019%20uw

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

5. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Ebit%20margin

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

Securities firms had a tough 2H18 due to unfavourable stock market conditions and rising competition in China and Hong Kong. In 2019, the share prices of securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. Overall, Shenwan Hongyuan fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: TRADE IDEA – Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. TRADE IDEA – Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb
  2. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite
  3. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

1. TRADE IDEA – Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb

Capture4

An old favorite in the Asian arbitrageur’s investment universe is the Hang Lung stub. The Hang Lung Group acquired Hang Lung Properties (formerly named Amoy Properties) and designated the subsidiary as its property investment arm.  After both companies were listed in 1992, the same year that the company entered the mainland with its purchase of the Grand Gateway 66 and Plaza 66 in Shanghai, the pair was open to arbs. The Hang Lung Group now controls over RMB 130 (USD 19.4b) billion of property in Hong Kong and China. 

In the wonderful world of Asian holding companies, Hang Lung needs little introduction. However, in this insight I would like to highlight a trade idea. I will detail why I think now is the right time to setup a stub trade and some background information on the company and what assets constitute the stub. 

In this insight I will cover:

I. The Trade

II. The Stub Assets

III. My Track Record with Stub Trades

2. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite

Fy18

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Wheelock and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

3. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dividend

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR
  2. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL
  3. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House
  4. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
  5. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

1. PT Indofoods’ Voluntary Offer for 74% Held Sub IFAR

Capture

Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP) has announced PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, its controlling shareholder with 74.52%, has made a voluntary conditional cash offer of $0.28/share for all IFAR shares it does not own. The offer price, which is a 7.7% premium to last close, is not final. Any dividend declared will reduce the consideration under the proposal.

The Offer is conditional on PT Indofood holding 90% of shares out at the close of the offer. There is no other condition.

There is no requirement for a downstream offer for Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP IJ), 73.46% held by IFAR.

IFAR’s share price has increased 27% this month – evidently, there was some news leakage ahead of the announcement – positioning its discount to NAV at ~50%, around its narrowest inside a year, but on a look-through basis, the Offer price backs out just 0.4x P/B.

The Offer price represents a premium of approximately 21.5%, 26.3%, 29.0% and 23.1% over the VWAP for 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. IFAR traded above the Offer price as recent as May last year. One wonders if the consideration is sufficient to achieve the 90% condition. 

2. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL

Bsi%20ews

  • Asset Quality recognition is something of a black art with varied definitions for non-performing loans (“NPLs”).
  • Firstly, we analyse what a NPL is.
  • We then evaluate provisioning changes across Asia. We rank countries.
  • We further analyse specific underlying NPL recognition issues in China.
  • We then rank a sample of regional banks and countries by NPL recognition.
  • Later, we take a look at how different systems come under NPL stress and how they cope often in a crisis environment.
  • Finally, we wrap things up with some concluding insights about the cultural backdrop which defines systemic asset quality.

3. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

Nav%20apr%202019

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

4. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Financial%20performance

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

Securities firms had a tough 2H18 due to unfavourable stock market conditions and rising competition in China and Hong Kong. In 2019, the share prices of securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. Overall, Shenwan Hongyuan fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out.

5. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

Pbt%20margin

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.

In 2019, the share prices of Chinese securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. We believe Guotai Junan’s fundamentals are reasonable due to its mid-tier revenue growth and top-quartile margins. Overall, we would participate in the placing.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL
  2. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House
  3. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
  4. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance
  5. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success

1. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL

Sec2

  • Asset Quality recognition is something of a black art with varied definitions for non-performing loans (“NPLs”).
  • Firstly, we analyse what a NPL is.
  • We then evaluate provisioning changes across Asia. We rank countries.
  • We further analyse specific underlying NPL recognition issues in China.
  • We then rank a sample of regional banks and countries by NPL recognition.
  • Later, we take a look at how different systems come under NPL stress and how they cope often in a crisis environment.
  • Finally, we wrap things up with some concluding insights about the cultural backdrop which defines systemic asset quality.

2. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

10%20apr%202019%20su

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

3. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Financial%20performance

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

Securities firms had a tough 2H18 due to unfavourable stock market conditions and rising competition in China and Hong Kong. In 2019, the share prices of securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. Overall, Shenwan Hongyuan fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out.

4. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

Ebit%20margin

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.

In 2019, the share prices of Chinese securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. We believe Guotai Junan’s fundamentals are reasonable due to its mid-tier revenue growth and top-quartile margins. Overall, we would participate in the placing.

5. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success

Commodity%20memory%20demand%20growth

China’s current efforts to gain prominence in the semiconductor market targets memory chips – large commodities.  This three-part series of insights examines how China determined its strategy and explains which companies are the most threatened by it.

This second part of the series explains how China chose commodity semiconductors (DRAM and NAND flash memory chips) as the best technology to pursue.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite
  2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

1. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite

Fy18

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Wheelock and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

2. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dividend

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

1. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent

Dividend

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth

In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House
  2. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
  3. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance
  4. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success
  5. NTT DoCoMo: Sale of HTHK Mobile Stake Is the End of an Era (Thankfully)

1. StubWorld: Amorepacific Is “Cheap”, Again; Kingboard Cleans House

Nav%20apr%202019

This week in StubWorld …

Preceding my comments on Amorepacific, Kingboard and other stubs, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.

2. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out

Roe

Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.

Securities firms had a tough 2H18 due to unfavourable stock market conditions and rising competition in China and Hong Kong. In 2019, the share prices of securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. Overall, Shenwan Hongyuan fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out.

3. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance

Rev%20growth

Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.

In 2019, the share prices of Chinese securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. We believe Guotai Junan’s fundamentals are reasonable due to its mid-tier revenue growth and top-quartile margins. Overall, we would participate in the placing.

4. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success

Commodity%20memory%20demand%20growth

China’s current efforts to gain prominence in the semiconductor market targets memory chips – large commodities.  This three-part series of insights examines how China determined its strategy and explains which companies are the most threatened by it.

This second part of the series explains how China chose commodity semiconductors (DRAM and NAND flash memory chips) as the best technology to pursue.

5. NTT DoCoMo: Sale of HTHK Mobile Stake Is the End of an Era (Thankfully)

Dcm%20hutch

NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) recently announced it would sell its 25% stake in Hutchinson Telecom Hong Kong’s ( Hutchison Telecommunications Hk Hld (215 HK)  mobile unit for US$60mn with closing expected at the end of May. This ends a 20-year association with Hutchinson forged in the initial excitement over 3G in 1999 but it hasn’t been a good ride for DoCoMo which lost close to 90% on its Hutchison investments and its other international forays were not much better.  On a related note, the HK mobile sale follows soon after DoCoMo’s exit from its credit card joint venture with Sumitomo Mitsui but we would not read anything into this beyond a rationalization of its non-core investments.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Hong Kong: HK Connect Discovery Weekly: PICC, Xinyi Solar (2019-03-08) and more

By | Hong Kong

In this briefing:

  1. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: PICC, Xinyi Solar (2019-03-08)

1. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: PICC, Xinyi Solar (2019-03-08)

Hscei%20inflow

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.

In this insight, we will highlight PICC and Xinyi Solar.

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