In today’s briefing:
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
- NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
- Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
- FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
- ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
- STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
- ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman
- Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down
- Japan Weekly | Geopolitics Rule as Semis Shine and Autos Stumble
- Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Elite Materials Added (But Bigger Sell Flows Elsewhere)
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
- The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
- The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
- There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
- If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
- Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.
Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
- Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
- Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
- The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.
FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
- Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
- There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
- There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
- We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
- Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).
STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
- Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) will replace Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) in the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) at the close on 20 June.
- The SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) will need to trade between 3-5 days of ADV in the add and delete.
- The ETF trading could help Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) break out of its short-term downtrend and could add further pressure on Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP).
ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman
- We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.
- We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
- We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman, Wisetech Global, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, Gpt, National Australia Bank.
Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down
- During January-April 2025, exports at 452,866 tons, down 11% YoY
- January-April 2025 exports value at US$872.78 mn, up 20.4% YoY
- Vietnam Rubber Group reports net profit of US$45.4 mn in Q1 2025
Japan Weekly | Geopolitics Rule as Semis Shine and Autos Stumble
- Japanese equities dipped as geopolitical tensions weighed on autos, though semiconductor stocks surged after Nvidia regained its crown as top global firm.
- Japan’s Q1 capex jumped 6.4% amid pre-tariff investment, but weak household spending and falling real wages signaled persistent domestic demand fragility.
- Toyota Industries fell 10% after unveiling a privatization plan priced below market expectations, raising investor governance concerns despite likely deal approval.
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Elite Materials Added (But Bigger Sell Flows Elsewhere)
- Elite Material (2383 TT) will be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in June and will replace Unimicron Technology (3037 TT).
- ETF AUM has now crossed US$20bn and passive trackers will need to buy 1x ADV in Elite Material (2383 TT) and sell 1.2x ADV in Unimicron Technology (3037 TT).
- Importantly, Elite Material (2383 TT)‘s stock price rally results in a lower dividend yield and the stock will be deleted from another ETF where the passive selling is much larger.
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