Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Nov 16, 2025

1. UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

• Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
• Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
• Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

2. UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

• UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
• Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
• Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

3. CHINA’S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

By David Mudd

• Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
• Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  
• We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.

4. 239: How Private Markets Could Reshape Portfolios and Investment Opportunities by 2030

By The Bid, The Bid

• Private markets are investments into non-listed companies or assets, providing diversification and potentially higher returns for portfolios
• There is a significant trend of companies staying private for longer, leading to increased opportunities for private market investors
• Individual investors are increasingly looking to allocate to private markets, with the total alternative assets under management expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030.

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5. NPS Could Raise Allocation of Korean Stocks = KOSPI to 5,000 Soon

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• One of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks has been the discussions about NPS potentially increasing the allocation of Korean stocks.
• If NPS announces a meaningful increase in the allocation of Korean stocks for its AUM, then there could certainly be an acceleration to KOSPI reaching 5,000. 
• Based on what we have gathered so far, there is a higher probability (70-80%) that NPS meaningfully increases the allocation of Korean stocks in the next several months. 

6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (November 10)

By David Mudd

• The Hong Kong market is consolidating with rotational buying into value and high dividend factor investments.  Mainland buying has slowed and diversified away from tech into low volatility names.
• After leading the market for nine months, growth and momentum factors turned down sharply in October.  The energy sector is showing increased strength and momentum, while tech and healthcare lag.
• Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) had a technical breakout after forming a Golden Cross with a rebound off its 50 day-moving-average. The share price is benefiting from anti-involution policies.

7. Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

• Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
• Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
• In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.

8. Asian Equities: Earnings Estimate Upgrades Climbing, but Slowly and Selectively

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

• Midway through the 3Q25 result season, eighteen Asian market-sectors have reported consensus EPS estimate upgrades over past one, three and six months. A quarter ago, we identified 11 such sectors.
• Eleven of these sectors are from HK/China, Korea and Taiwan. Seven are from ASEAN markets, dominated by Thailand. India and Singapore are conspicuous by their absence.
• Among the notable sectors with EPS upgrades, Chinese base metals, HK/Chinese and Korean financials, Chinese pharmaceuticals, Korean and Taiwanese technology, Thai utilities and communication and Philippines transportation stand out.

9. HEW: Back To Business

By Phil Rush, Heteronomics

• The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
• UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
• Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

10. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Nov 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker, Aletheia Capital