This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.
- Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
- Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
- In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday
- TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Near Record High After U.S. 4th of July Holiday
- UMC: +4.7% Premium; One of the Highest Levels in History — Short
- ASE: +4.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short
3. TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?
- TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY
- At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint
- However, if we take today’s exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick & let’s see this day next week
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan’s AI Infrastructure Push
- US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand
- Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan’s Offshore Wind Expansion — Local Stocks to Watch
- China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 — But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity
5. TechChain Insights: Zhen Ding – How Next Generation PCBs/Substrates Will Be Critical for AI Devices
- Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) is leveraging its full-stack PCB and IC substrate portfolio to position itself as a critical enabler of AI hardware across cloud, channel, and edge applications.
- AI-Linked hardware is expected to account for over 70% of Zhen Ding’s revenue in 2025, up sharply from 45% in 2024 and just 8% in 2023.
- Zhen Ding shares remain substantially below their 52-week highs; we see the company well-placed in terms of long-term drivers. Well placed for an upcoming AI robotics boom.
6. Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?
- Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision.
- Magnetic tape storage continues to play a crucial role in data centers and its technology continues to advance with the latest LTO-10 cassette announced by Fujifilm in June 2025
- Microsoft’s Project Silica, launched in 2019, appears to take a very similar approach albeit there are as yet no stated plans for commercialisation.
7. Nidec (6594 JP): New Factory in China
- Nidec has opened a new motor factory in China to meet an anticipated increase in demand for home appliances.
- Sensing an opportunity for growth, management is already considering the construction of a second factory.
- This fits with the Chinese government’s efforts to promote domestic demand and with Nidec’s need for a new growth driver in China.
8. MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.
- For Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.
- Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.
- Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with Meta (META US).
