This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style
- TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
- Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
- Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds
2. TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise
- TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
- Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
- TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure
3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.
- 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
- Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%
- Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount
- TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
- UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
- ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread
5. ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?
- ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
- Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
- Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.
6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC – What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus
- Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm — Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC… and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term
- DRAM Memory Outlook — Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25
- PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year
7. Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon
- Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
- Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
- Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.
8. TechChain Insights: Kinik – The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push
- We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC’s Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below
- Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment… also at 100% for SBU Segment
- Takeaways — Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions… Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC’s Recent Activity Momentum
