Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Jun 22, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

By Patrick Liao

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
  • TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
  • There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.

3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
  • TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 

4. MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management’s EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
  • By then, we expect Air, Defense & Space revenues to double and the division’s operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
  • Given Japan’s uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 

5. Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

  • Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  
  • Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
  • Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  

6. AMD Advancing AI 2025: Key Takeaways

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • AMD snagged Sam Altman as a guest speaker and advocate for the company’s next generation MI450 accelerator product 
  • Oracle announced their intention to create a zetascale AI cluster based on AMD’s MI355X GPUs
  • Marvell announced its custom Ultra Accelerator Link (UALink) scale-up offering. Astera Labs will be next in line.

7. Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • After nearly two years of decline, TOWA’s new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
  • Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
  • Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.

8. MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
  • Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
  • Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

9. Defense Tech: Taiwan Advanced Submarine Trial & Global Turmoil Puts CSBC in the Investor Spotlight

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Submarine Milestone Validates CSBC’s Strategic Role: Taiwan’s June 17 maiden sea trial of the Hai Kun-class submarine highlights CSBC as the sole builder of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program.
  • Scale of Program Is Significant vs. Market Cap: Seven additional submarines are expected to follow, with a reported program budget of NT$284bn (~US$9.5bn), over 12x CSBC’s current US$760m market cap.
  • Emerging Naval, Drones, & Energy Platforms Provide Optionality: Beyond submarines, CSBC is expanding into unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and offshore wind engineering, offering long-term exposure to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.