This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike
- TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
- ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
- CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs
2. Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?
- On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
- They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.
- Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!
3. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value
- Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
- Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
- Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan’s Big Earnings Week and Apple’s High-Stakes Shift to India
- Major earnings week ahead: Taiwan names like Macronix, Lite-On, Delta, Mediatek report, while global tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple headline a critical week of results.
- Apple’s India shift faces hurdles: Apple plans to move most U.S. iPhone assembly to India by 2026E, but analysts caution full supply chain relocation from China will be difficult.
- UMC and Intel: Strategy and Uncertainty in Focus: Recent updates from UMC and Intel reveal supply chain adaptations and market visibility challenges for 2025E and beyond.
5. Delta Taiwan Vs. Delta Thailand: Valuation Gap Widens After Strong 1Q25; Why AI Now Needs Microgrids
- Delta Taiwan delivered record 1Q25 results, driven by strong AI data center demand; EPS beat Bloomberg consensus by 8%.
- Management highlights microgrids as essential for resilient AI infrastructure amid power grid instability, and challenges keeping national power supply up with data center expansion.
- Valuation gap widens sharply: Delta Taiwan trades at 22x PER vs. 60x for Delta Thailand, despite having stronger 2025–2026E growth. Weak macroeconomic situation also makes Delta Thailand highly vulnerable.
6. Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War
- Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
- Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
- The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.
7. Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn
- SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty — Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.
- PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery — Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.
- Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares — Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.
8. MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs
- MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.
- AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing — NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.
- Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view — AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.
9. MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.
- 2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%.
- In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs.
- Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.
10. ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services
- ASE slightly missed 1Q25 profit expectations; operating margin slipped slightly due to seasonal ATM softness and higher opex from LEAP and test investments.
- LEAP advanced packaging and AI test continue to scale; but still make up only ~6% of revenue; ASE’s exposure to vulnerable mature/legacy chip end-applications remains too high.
- We rate ASE Neutral, vulnerable to global slowdown; citing macro opacity, tariff-related pull-ins, and a non-cheap valuation relative to 2H25 growth uncertainty and risks of a market de-rating.
