This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?
- Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO’s assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.
- One of Mr. Altman’s revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that’s compute capacity he can’t afford to purchase in the first place.
- Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That’s a strategy that rarely ends well. Let’s see..
2. Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble
- Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off “fungible” compute strategy
- Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, “jagged” intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
- Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.
3. NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
- NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
- TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA’s Smooth Transition to GB300
- NVIDIA’s Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley’s Substrate- TSMC Slayer?
- NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
- NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive
- Silicon Valley’s Substrate — ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?
5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premiums Near Spead Short Levels
- TSMC: 24.5% Premium; Near Level to Open Fresh Short of ADR Spread
- ASE: +5.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread
- ChipMOS: -1.7% Discount; Near Discount Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
6. IHI (7013 JP): Orders and Profits Headed Up, Share Price Down
- Sales and operating profit declined YoY in 1H, but new orders were up 17.5% and the book-to-bill ratio rose from 1.00 to 1.25. anagement has raised full-year guidance.
- Aerospace & Defense continue to lead growth, with nuclear energy and Asian EPC making significant contributions to new orders and the restructuring of Industrial Systems & Machinery boosting operating profit.
- Share price down 15% in two weeks to 23x FY Mar-26 EPS guidance. Once again a reasonably valued investment in Japan’s rising defense budget and corporate restructuring.
