This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. @Sama Says There’s An AI Bubble. What’s Going On?
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money
- However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future
- Meta’s no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir’s valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real & rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously
2. MIT Report Claims 95% of GenAI Projects Fail. How Is This Possible?
- Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return
- While employees are likely using LLMs in a personal capacity, this mostly isn’t feeding into the KPI’s that are being used to monitor the success of GenAI projects
- The harsh reality is that integrating GenAI tools into existing workflows is time consuming, needs careful planning and likely best done with help from the professionals.
3. Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout
- TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.
- KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.
- Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.
4. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.
- The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) appears negligible.
- Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.
5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.
- Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.
6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: SEMICON Taiwan Just Started; TSMC August Sales Soar; 2026 to Be Year of Edge AI?
- TSMC August Revenue +34% YoY: AI Demand Remains the Key Driver
- ARM Pushes Edge AI Forward with New “Lumex” Chip Designs — 2026 Could Be a Major Growth Year for Edge AI
- From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today
7. From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today
- Defining themes: Packaging, edge AI, and silicon photonics dominate SEMICON Taiwan 2025
- Global heavyweights Applied Materials, Lam, and TEL anchor this year’s industry sponsorship
- Taiwan’s next tier — Zhen Ding, ASE, Advantech, ASPEED, Egis — showcase critical AI enablers beyond TSMC
8. Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments
- More than $1 billion to be invested in electric power equipment and railway car production, plus a new automation center, to counter tariffs and support long-term expansion in the U.S.
- The rising share of sales accounted for by smart factory and other digital technologies should lead to higher profit margins and ROIC over the next several years.
- The share price has dropped 13% from its recent high to 26x EPS guidance for FY Mar-26. Buy on weakness for long-term growth. The main risk is a slowing economy.
9. Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?
- Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”?
- From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.
- Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?
10. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level
- TSMC: +24.4% Premium: Remains at Level to Short the ADR Spread
- ASE: 0.0% (Parity); Open Fresh Longs Here or at a Discount
- ChipMOS: -1.9% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the Spread
