European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Cabinet Clause: Political Hurdles in BBVA’s Takeover of Sabadell

Under Review: Banking on Politics in BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell

BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.</li>
<li>September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.</li>
</ul>


Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.


BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Banco De Sabadell SA

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options