European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.</li>
<li>Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.</li>
<li>Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.


BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Banco De Sabadell SA

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again