European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.</li>
<li>The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.</li>
<li>Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.
The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.
Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.


BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

Banco De Sabadell SA

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal