European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.</li>
<li>Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.</li>
<li>Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.
Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.
Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.


BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

Banco De Sabadell SA

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric