Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

A highly collaborative investment professional and research analyst with 10+ years of international experience in equity research, treasury operations, and trading positions across multiple asset classes at leading multinational banks Citibank and Morgan Stanley, UHNWI-backed family office and European independent equity research firm. A respectable background in equity capital markets, corporate treasury, investment banking operations, equity research analysis and portfolio management.

Duolingo Valuation Update: Year-End Profit Taking Is Likely As ARR Growth Is Slowing Down

Duolingo. User Growth And Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Management Raised FY22 Guidance

Duolingo: Now, Available In China. Plenty of Positives and Strong Operating Metrics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. </li>
<li>Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. </li>
<li>With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.</li>
</ul>


Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. 
Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. 
With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.


Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results