Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Top DELETE

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Easy ADDs, Tough DELETEs, Two(?) Caps; And Squeeziness

[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Incoming - Big Re-IPO Now Smaller, Better

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Third ADD

Primer: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) - May 2026

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 11 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a><a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS82809/495aeada/b7c2/44f4/9a09/e8f5efa19f4e/140120260510521206.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> strong earnings beating guidance but missing consensus (FY25 NP ¥104.6bn vs ¥93bn guidance/¥112.6bn consensus; revs ¥884.6bn/¥820bn/¥844bn; OP ¥175bn/¥150bn/¥168.7bn). Guidance is low. </li>
<li>Despite multiple new investments (and the Toho Titanium merger 1 June), guided revs are 1.5% below consensus, OP 12.5% below, and NP guidance at ¥114bn 27% lower than consensus.</li>
<li>That hurt. As did the ¥250bn of CBs to buy back ¥250bn of stock in a Tender. Cute financial engineering. Timing is important. Details within.</li>
</ul>


On 11 May, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)announced strong earnings beating guidance but missing consensus (FY25 NP ¥104.6bn vs ¥93bn guidance/¥112.6bn consensus; revs ¥884.6bn/¥820bn/¥844bn; OP ¥175bn/¥150bn/¥168.7bn). Guidance is low. 
Despite multiple new investments (and the Toho Titanium merger 1 June), guided revs are 1.5% below consensus, OP 12.5% below, and NP guidance at ¥114bn 27% lower than consensus.
That hurt. As did the ¥250bn of CBs to buy back ¥250bn of stock in a Tender. Cute financial engineering. Timing is important. Details within.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) Big Buyback, Big CB, Disappointing Guidance, Stock De-Frothing