Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A chartered management accountant with more than 10 years of rich experience in investment research and financial analysis. Worked as an equity analyst for one of the world's largest asset managers with USD2.5trn in AUM covering numerous sectors including chemicals, retail, tech, autos, telco, real-estate and banks, globally. Experienced in fundamental equity research, industry research, commodity studies, forensic accounting, and due diligence reviews.

Equity Analyst

Recruit: Further Drop in US Job Openings Adds Strain on HRTech Earnings

M3: Guidance Points to Further Slowdown in Growth

Recruit Holdings: 4QFY2023 Earnings Preview

Money Forward: Top Line Expands, Yet to See Meaningful Turnaround in Profitability

Freee: Widened Losses No Major Concern as Freee Advances Towards Medium/Long Term Growth Strategy

Money Forward: Top Line Beats Consensus but Losses Widen Further

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MF reported 1QFY11/2023 results on Friday. Revenue increased 43.0% YoY to ¥6.8bn (vs consensus ¥6.5bn) while operating losses dropped to ¥1.59bn vs ¥1.65bn in 1QFY11/22 (vs consensus ¥2.0bn).</li>
<li>The company’s S&amp;M spending is the lowest during first quarter of the year, which drove losses down. However, the company has guided for higher S&amp;M spending in 2Q.</li>
<li>Our analysis on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> BO SAAS vs Non-BO SAAS shows that non-BO businesses’ GPM has continued to decline suggesting that these non-BO businesses only help inflate revenues.</li>
</ul>


MF reported 1QFY11/2023 results on Friday. Revenue increased 43.0% YoY to ¥6.8bn (vs consensus ¥6.5bn) while operating losses dropped to ¥1.59bn vs ¥1.65bn in 1QFY11/22 (vs consensus ¥2.0bn).
The company’s S&amp;M spending is the lowest during first quarter of the year, which drove losses down. However, the company has guided for higher S&amp;M spending in 2Q.
Our analysis on Money Forward (3994 JP) BO SAAS vs Non-BO SAAS shows that non-BO businesses’ GPM has continued to decline suggesting that these non-BO businesses only help inflate revenues.


Money Forward: Lower S&M Spending in 1Q Drives Losses Down