Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Initiating Coverage on Pemex: Set to Outperform on Reclassification Potential

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain Overweight on Pemex, anchored by Mexico’s extraordinary support that effectively shifts refinancing needs to the sovereign balance sheet. </li>
<li>We prefer the 2032s for value in the belly and the 2050s for long-end carry and upside. </li>
<li>Near-Term credit remains well-supported, but structural production and downstream weaknesses limit medium-term tightening potential.</li>
</ul>


We maintain Overweight on Pemex, anchored by Mexico’s extraordinary support that effectively shifts refinancing needs to the sovereign balance sheet. 
We prefer the 2032s for value in the belly and the 2050s for long-end carry and upside. 
Near-Term credit remains well-supported, but structural production and downstream weaknesses limit medium-term tightening potential.


Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

Petroleos Mexicanos

Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter