European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.</li>
<li>The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.


Assura PLC

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