Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aspen Group is a property company specializing in the investment, ownership and management of high yielding commercial properties including tourism and caravan parks.  The Group also provides fund management services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspen-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20680:1" rel="noopener">Aspen Group (APZ AU)</a> will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.</li>
<li>Estimated passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspen-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20680:1" rel="noopener">Aspen Group (APZ AU)</a> is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.</li>
<li>Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.</li>
</ul>



Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.


Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

CMOC Group Limited operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company focuses on non-ferrous metal mining. CMOC Group specializes in mining and trading of base and rare metals.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC (603993 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH)</a> in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.</li>
</ul>



CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.


China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) provides financial services. The Company offers life and health insurance, private equity, corporate lending, structured finance, asset and wealth management, currency and commodity brokerage, online personal finance management, housing finance, pension funds, and other financial services. ABCL serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).</li>
<li>We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

Highly experienced ex-Delta One trader with 17 years of experience trading arbitrage and related strategies across Asian markets.

Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd.

It is important to note that the information provided by Periscope Analytics is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and synthesized from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions.

All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include, but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, ETF and other passive investment vehicle holdings, and free float and volume data from third-party data providers. Periscope Analytics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates and/or other information.

Brian Freitas
Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One
• Periscope Analytics

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