Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

<ul><li>Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.</li><li>Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectively</li><li>Banking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.</li></ul>

Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectivelyBanking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.

Bassett Furniture Inds / Equity Bottom-Up

Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated manufactures and sells a full line of furniture for the home.  The Company offers bedroom and dining suites, occasional tables and entertainment units, upholstered sofas and love seats, recliners, and mattresses, among other products.  Bassett's products are sold through retailers, including Bassett Furniture Direct.

<ul><li>Bassett Furniture Industries (NASDAQ: BSET) is a 123-year-old, Virginia-headquartered, vertically integrated designer, manufacturer and retailer of residential furniture</li><li>Organized into Wholesale (three US-owned plants supplying its own stores plus ~1,000 independent dealers) and Retail (57 company-owned of 86 total Bassett Home Furnishings stores).</li><li>In October 2022 a private-equity-backed buyer, CSC Generation, offered $21/share cash for the whole company</li></ul>

Bassett Furniture Industries (NASDAQ: BSET) is a 123-year-old, Virginia-headquartered, vertically integrated designer, manufacturer and retailer of residential furnitureOrganized into Wholesale (three US-owned plants supplying its own stores plus ~1,000 independent dealers) and Retail (57 company-owned of 86 total Bassett Home Furnishings stores).In October 2022 a private-equity-backed buyer, CSC Generation, offered $21/share cash for the whole company

Instone Real Estate Group SE provides real estate development services. The Company constructs apartment, buildings, and residential homes. Instone Real Estate Group serves customers in Germany.

<ul><li>Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS)</li><li>Acquiring land and developing multi-family and mixed-use residential projects across major German cities — Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and the wider Rhine-Main region</li><li>Then selling completed units to retail buyers and institutional investors alike.</li></ul>

Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS)Acquiring land and developing multi-family and mixed-use residential projects across major German cities — Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and the wider Rhine-Main regionThen selling completed units to retail buyers and institutional investors alike.

CROPS CORPORATION is a mobile telecommunication service subscription agency. The Company sells KDDI's brand mobile phones, au mobile phones, in the Tokai area.  Crops Corp also operates personnel placement services.

<ul><li>Crops Corporation (9428) is a Nagoya-based conglomerate best known as KDDI’s largest au/UQ Mobile retail agency in the Chubu region, but the segment that actually drives profit is a restaurant-property sub-leasing arbitrage business (Innovation Holdings/Tempo Innovation), generating 43% of operating profit from just 26% of revenue.</li><li>KDDI itself holds a 20.32% equity-method stake with board representation, alongside staffing, building-maintenance, and overseas BPO units.</li><li>The company seems to steadily compound revenues and profits and once you strip out the asset write-off from a small Vietnamese subsidiary, it seems to trade very cheaply on just over 7x earnings.</li></ul>

Crops Corporation (9428) is a Nagoya-based conglomerate best known as KDDI’s largest au/UQ Mobile retail agency in the Chubu region, but the segment that actually drives profit is a restaurant-property sub-leasing arbitrage business (Innovation Holdings/Tempo Innovation), generating 43% of operating profit from just 26% of revenue.KDDI itself holds a 20.32% equity-method stake with board representation, alongside staffing, building-maintenance, and overseas BPO units.The company seems to steadily compound revenues and profits and once you strip out the asset write-off from a small Vietnamese subsidiary, it seems to trade very cheaply on just over 7x earnings.

Naikai Zosen Corporation builds and repairs ships mainly for the domestic market.  The Company also manufactures cranes and steel structures and provides construction and related works including electric wiring work.  Naikai Zosen is a member of the Hitachi Zosen group and operates hotels and theme parks through its subsidiaries.

<ul><li>Naikai Zosen is a Japanese shipbuilder running two yards in the Seto Inland Sea (Setoda and Innoshima, both in Onomichi, Hiroshima), building mid-size ferries, RO-RO cargo ships, and — a newer line — landing craft for the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.</li><li>It has been Kanadevia Corporation’s (formerly Hitachi Zosen) 39%+ affiliate since 1967.</li><li>A more accurate description for Naikai is that it is a pile of cash that happens to also build ships. </li></ul>

Naikai Zosen is a Japanese shipbuilder running two yards in the Seto Inland Sea (Setoda and Innoshima, both in Onomichi, Hiroshima), building mid-size ferries, RO-RO cargo ships, and — a newer line — landing craft for the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.It has been Kanadevia Corporation’s (formerly Hitachi Zosen) 39%+ affiliate since 1967.A more accurate description for Naikai is that it is a pile of cash that happens to also build ships. 

My approach is to cover companies that fit my investment criteria and trade at prices with near term free cashflow yields that provide above-average returns. Usually my hurdle yield is 10%. This way I do not need the market to converge to my assessment of value to earn acceptable returns. You can find my investment criteria on my website.

Since good companies rarely come cheap, I predominantly look off the beaten paths at smaller companies in sectors or regions that face short-term headwinds and are therefore neglected by most investors.
Most of the times, I use a Discounted Cashflow Model (DCF) to value businesses. However, to limit the possibilities to mess with the model, I developed a variation of the DCF that uses less parameters at the cost of being less precise. I think the tradeoff is very worthwhile as I really take the words of a Sir Maynard Keynes to heart: It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

Lastly, to protect me from my own ignorance and stupidity, I always insist on a margin of safety.

Contrarian Cashflows
Fundamental Analyses
• Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 12/10/2026

Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile,...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 05/10/2026

Bassett Furniture Industries (NASDAQ: BSET) is a 123-year-old, Virginia-headquartered, vertically integrated designer, manufacturer and retailer...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 28/09/2026

Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS) Acquiring land and...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 21/09/2026

Crops Corporation (9428) is a Nagoya-based conglomerate best known as KDDI’s largest au/UQ Mobile retail agency in the Chubu region, but the...

Contrarian Cashflows

Monday Delight: 14/09/2026

Naikai Zosen is a Japanese shipbuilder running two yards in the Seto Inland Sea (Setoda and Innoshima, both in Onomichi, Hiroshima), building...

Contrarian Cashflows