Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mimasu Semiconductor Industry / Event-Driven

MIMASU SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CO., LTD. processes semiconductor materials such as silicon and gallium.  The Company also designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor material processing machinery and sells various kinds of measuring and testing devices.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>, owner of a 44% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>, has announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities in Mimasu. </li>
<li>This is not surprising. They bought in 19 years ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. But it's too cheap. </li>
<li>Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 52%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), has announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities in Mimasu. 
This is not surprising. They bought in 19 years ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. But it's too cheap. 
Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 52%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.


18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) - Cheap But Whatchagonnado?

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

<ul>
<li>We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.</li>
<li>Why is it a disappointment? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.</li>
<li>This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then...</li>
</ul>


We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then...


Denso's Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231017540912/en/Palliser-Capital-Responds-to-Media-Article-Regarding-Investment-in-Keisei-Electric-Railway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) on well-known "stub trade" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a stake of about 1.6%. </li>
<li>The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.</li>
<li>I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423026545/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423405941/en/Palliser-Capital-Proposes-Advisory-Resolution-to-Give-Shareholders-a-Voice-at-Keisei%E2%80%99s-Forthcoming-AGM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) and a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20240423405941/en/2107923/1/53951785_PALLISER_CAPITAL_20240424_Letter_to_Keisei_English_2.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Letter to the Board</a>.</li>
</ul>


Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (presentation) on well-known "stub trade" Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a stake of about 1.6%. 
The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.
I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (Japanese/English) and a Letter to the Board.


Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Equity Bottom-Up

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"</li>
<li>That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.</li>
<li>Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"
That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.
Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.


Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Amvis Holdings, Inc. offers health care services. The Company provides home caring, medical security supporting, remaining years accompany, rehabilitation supporting, and other services. Amvis Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) - Cheap But Whatchagonnado?

Shin-Etsu Chem is buying out sub Mimasu Semi 19yrs after buying in. It's too cheap, but it's an all-time high, and this company hasn't had activist...

Travis Lundy

Denso's Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

Toyota Inds got sold on news of Denso's selldown. It's 6-7% of ADV for 2.5yrs so reasonable to expect heaviness. But while forward EPS ratios...

Travis Lundy

Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Palliser has re-engaged with a Demand with vague hints of active measures if not mollified. I think Keisei will reject but will make a policy. My...

Travis Lundy

Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Nikon is a cheap company with dual personalities, which keeps its multiple low. It has cash and securities too. Silchester bought 5% and Bloomberg...

Travis Lundy

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy