Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Index Rebalance

G Mining Ventures Corp. acquires, explores, and develops gold mineral properties.

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.</li>
<li>We expect <em>one</em>-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is <em>re</em>-capping flows of the megacaps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>. At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  </li>
<li>There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.</li>
<li>This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.</li>
</ul>


Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP). At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  
There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.
This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.


[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

MANDOM CORPORATION manufactures and markets a variety of cosmetic products for men and women.  The Company's products include hair care and skin care cosmetics.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei came out post-close with an <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB0996J0Z01C25A2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> saying that KKR had offered "more than 10%" ("higher than ¥2,800") for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> vs the revised ¥2,520 CVC Bid.</li>
<li>Mandom announced a revision to the Opinion Statement to include some but not a lot of details. That triggers an extension to the deal, closing 5 Jan vs 18 Dec.</li>
<li>The language in the Mandom release is kind of interesting. This price gets us closer, but it may not be high enough.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei came out post-close with an article saying that KKR had offered "more than 10%" ("higher than ¥2,800") for Mandom Corp (4917 JP) vs the revised ¥2,520 CVC Bid.
Mandom announced a revision to the Opinion Statement to include some but not a lot of details. That triggers an extension to the deal, closing 5 Jan vs 18 Dec.
The language in the Mandom release is kind of interesting. This price gets us closer, but it may not be high enough.


[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

SBI bought high early, then added more on successive steps down, buying their last 5% at 75-80% below their firs 20%. That left their average price...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+

Nikkei has said KKR has proposed a bid for Mandom at ¥2,800+. That puts the fox in the henhouse. This is not an "unwelcome" situation. It was the...

Travis Lundy